iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Super excited about our Tech and Public Policy fellows!

Reposted by Michael Bailey

James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

'Raise Doubts'??? C'mon, @nytimes.com How about: - 'Show Otherwise' - 'Counter His Claim' - 'Tell Different Story' - 'Prove Claim False' - 'Don't Match Claims' - 'Show Another Lie' [ok, too far.] Etc. Headline gives him 100% underserved benefit of the doubt.

Headline: Trump Says Vandals Sabotaged the Reflecting Pool. Internal Documents Raise Doubts.

51961197

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

The Roberts Court were not just getting rid of racial districting with Callais - they were eliminating the last legal requirement to provide reasonably representative maps. The die was cast with their decision to accept partisan gerrymandering in 2019. Callais was just the nail in the coffin.

To give another example, about 38% of Mississippi residents are Black. They currently have only one Black and Democratic representative among six seats, Bennie Thompson. (Yes, the one accused of engaging in a "reign of terror" by Mississippi's governor). Soon it will be none. How is this a functional system of democratic representation?

110223

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

JD Vance personally invited Pope Leo to the U.S. 250th celebration on the 4th of July. Today the Vatican announced Leo will be spending the day with migrants instead.

time.com

Pope Leo Will Spend July 4 Visiting Migrant Crossing Island

Pope Leo has spoken out against the treatment of migrants in the United States several times over the last year.

468173954314

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Republican Senator Thom Tillis says Stephen Miller is like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings and Kristi Noem is like Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter.

2132677672

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 26/01/2026

Just say the government is lying. The goal of journalism should be to inform, not gaslight.

28594291976

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Molly Ploofkins @mollyploofkins.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Alex Pretti’s coworkers take a moment of silence this morning

179120643355

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

I hate the « bad advice » framing but let’s take what we can get

000

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Matt McDermott @mattmfm.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

ICE is now responsible for 66% of the homicides in Minneapolis this year.

142207017875

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Mark Jacob @markjacob.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

My Stop the Presses newsletter calls for a dramatic change of tactics by major media to produce "radically truthful” news that defeats the right-wing disinformation industry. Right now, the media are getting slam-dunked by fascist liars. Here’s a thread with my 10 main points. 🧵🧵🧵

stopthepresses.news

How to build a radically truthful news outlet

The old ways don’t work. Time to declare war on the liars.

12446168

Reposted by Michael Bailey

The Daily Show @thedailyshow.com · 06/11/2025

Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment

1547359077846

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

I would like to take the course!

020

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Judd Legum @juddlegum.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.

638877

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Such is the life in social science! My specification is pretty bog standard - and I sure don’t love the measure (Adam doesn’t either I suspect)

010

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.

23577161753

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take: open.substack.com/pub/michaela...

open.substack.com

Moderation Revisited: Still helps!

I’ve written on the “Does moderation matter?” debate.

142

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

The measures predict congressional voting quite well (that’s what they’re built to do btw)

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *

Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio

011

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

papers.ssrn.com

Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *

Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio

010

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Aren’t you saying the same thing as the NYT? That purple voters don’t like progressive candidates?

010

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

It’s in the Constitution ! Or are you not an originalist? Or was it in the Declaration of independence where they called out King George for not protecting pedophiles?

010

Reposted by Michael Bailey

I support Somali-Americans @adamrothman.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Actual waste, fraud, & abuse

3434

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 14/07/2025

We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o... This administration is stuck in the past on China

nytimes.com

Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.

021

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.

000

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

Thanks Kevin. I might be more optimistic but still realistic- lots of work to be done !

000

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

I agree - interesting possibilities here bsky.app/profile/trul...

010

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“

2838783

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Jeffrey J. Hall @mrjeffu.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected]. Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.

13840801583

Reposted by Michael Bailey

Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?

961868529

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

And we should bear in mind difference between growing electorate and shrinking it. Bonica et al argue room for Dems to increase by growing. Whatever one thinks about that, everyone agrees Dems benefit from shrinking electorate in midterm (right?) Is it really case that Dems win in both directions?

010

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

Is the decline in Dem support among young and men due to wanting Democrats to do more progressive stuff? Less? Or (my guess) something different?

110

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

Are the non voting Dems in CES more liberal and staying home bc not getting enough liberal policy? Are they more moderate Dems? People with “non spatial” ideology? What do they care about?

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

I’d love to hear response from bsky.app/profile/davi...

bsky.app

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N

130

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

Cross time comparisons are interesting/difficult! To say Trump = Romney is crazy (your point). But if presidential candidates are reference point for what it means to be lib/con, flat lines take on a different (still highly predictive of voting) meaning. What it means to be lib/con changes!

130

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

Im not making claims about what is/is not evidence. Just saying your figure is consistent with ideological voting and sounds like you agree. Is there another variable that tracks outcomes as well (pid ??). “What is ideology?”etc is a much bigger (important ) question

110

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

Doesn’t the chart predict 50-50 vote share in 2020 and 2024 and a GOP win in 2016?

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

On Nominate: we clean up the disaster where it says AOC (+the ‘squad’) are moderates. They’re liberal in our model. Are there other examples where it screws up who is moderate?

000

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

My take is that politicians who figure out how to speak to/energize moderate voters do well - and ones like Obama and perhaps Bill Clinton who can do this while energizing the base do best of all.

020

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

In my work (and others like it) you were coded moderate if you used words used by moderates in Congress (and liberal if … etc). The pattern is very clear that this helped electorally. But that doesn’t mean that same ways of speaking is what resonates now

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

That’s the thing that makes it so tricky to extrapolate from academic findings to « what to do » debate 1/n

100

Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

Re-upping this bsky.app/profile/trul...

020