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Michael Bailey

@trulymably.bsky.social
245 followers 320 following 77 posts
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Super excited about our Tech and Public Policy fellows!
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
'Raise Doubts'??? C'mon, @nytimes.com How about: - 'Show Otherwise' - 'Counter His Claim' - 'Tell Different Story' - 'Prove Claim False' - 'Don't Match Claims' - 'Show Another Lie' [ok, too far.] Etc. Headline gives him 100% underserved benefit of the doubt.
Headline: Trump Says Vandals Sabotaged the Reflecting Pool. Internal Documents Raise Doubts.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
The Roberts Court were not just getting rid of racial districting with Callais - they were eliminating the last legal requirement to provide reasonably representative maps. The die was cast with their decision to accept partisan gerrymandering in 2019. Callais was just the nail in the coffin.
To give another example, about 38% of Mississippi residents are Black. They currently have only one Black and Democratic representative among six seats, Bennie Thompson. (Yes, the one accused of engaging in a "reign of terror" by Mississippi's governor). Soon it will be none. How is this a functional system of democratic representation?
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
JD Vance personally invited Pope Leo to the U.S. 250th celebration on the 4th of July. Today the Vatican announced Leo will be spending the day with migrants instead.
time.com
Pope Leo Will Spend July 4 Visiting Migrant Crossing Island
Pope Leo has spoken out against the treatment of migrants in the United States several times over the last year.
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Republican Senator Thom Tillis says Stephen Miller is like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings and Kristi Noem is like Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 26/01/2026
Just say the government is lying. The goal of journalism should be to inform, not gaslight.
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Molly Ploofkins @mollyploofkins.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Alex Pretti’s coworkers take a moment of silence this morning
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
I hate the « bad advice » framing but let’s take what we can get
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Matt McDermott @mattmfm.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
ICE is now responsible for 66% of the homicides in Minneapolis this year.
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Mark Jacob @markjacob.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
My Stop the Presses newsletter calls for a dramatic change of tactics by major media to produce "radically truthful” news that defeats the right-wing disinformation industry. Right now, the media are getting slam-dunked by fascist liars. Here’s a thread with my 10 main points. 🧵🧵🧵
stopthepresses.news
How to build a radically truthful news outlet
The old ways don’t work. Time to declare war on the liars.
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The Daily Show @thedailyshow.com · 06/11/2025
Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment
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Judd Legum @juddlegum.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take: open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com
Moderation Revisited: Still helps!
I’ve written on the “Does moderation matter?” debate.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *
Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *
Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio
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King Algamemnon @adamrothman.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Actual waste, fraud, & abuse
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o... This administration is stuck in the past on China
nytimes.com
Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Some thoughts on Elon's new party michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...
michaelabailey2.substack.com
Dear Elon: About that new party...
Elon Musk raised some eyebrows with his tweet about starting a new party -- with a super legit Twitter poll to back it up, no less.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
I agree - interesting possibilities here bsky.app/profile/trul...
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
Good stuff from Ned Foley The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...
open.substack.com
The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power
Only Congress can constrain an autocratic President, and only electoral reform will enable Congress to perform this essential constitutional function.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“
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Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...
offmessage.net
Rein In Trump's Pardon Power
Before it's too late... And presidential immunity, while we're at it.... Take it to Congress, to states, even to the streets.
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Jeffrey J. Hall @mrjeffu.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected]. Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
focaldata.com
Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research
Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Happy to see this review of my book from @markpackuk.bsky.social -- and, as always, eager to hear if you have thoughts/suggestions/ideas theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...
theweekinpolls.substack.com
Polling at a crossroads: is this book the way forward?
Welcome to the 151st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP) which takes a look at a new(-ish) book about both the problems with and possible solutions for modern political polling.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
I agree there is no contradiction. What it means to be moderate is up for grabs (ideology evolves!). Many people have strong fixed views (pro and con) on moderation. Simpler perhaps is to say « Ds need to respond to local opinion AND fight ». Doesn’t have to be along 2020 battle lines
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Bernie on board for running as independents! (Btw I only like this in very red or very blue states) www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/u...
nytimes.com
Bernie Sanders Has an Idea for the Left: Don’t Run as Democrats
The Vermont senator, who has long had a tense relationship with the Democratic Party, suggested in an interview that more progressives should join him in running as independents.
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Especially interesting on the senate
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Curious why every article headline isn’t “Trumps tarrifying trade war”
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Elon musk “is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.”
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Bonica, Rhee and Studen (2025) is an ambitious effort to assess the role of ideology on general election results. I’m excited to see such a serious large-scale project get attention in Edsall’s NYT column. 1/N
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
This is a great thread updating our knowledge about how extremism affects elections. It's a big deal to get this right! Ben Reese find consistent and robust evidence that moderates do better. The effects aren't huge, but seem pretty clear: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *
Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio
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Michael Bailey @trulymably.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-...
thebulwark.com
Democrats Must Step Aside in Red States
And let a new party—one that could actually defeat MAGA Republicans—compete there in 2026 and 2028.
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Adam Keiper @adamkeiper.com · 04/01/2025
Editorial cartoonist Ann Telnaes has quit from the Washington Post after editorial interference of a sort she never previously experienced at the paper. open.substack.com/pub/anntelna...
open.substack.com
Why I'm quitting the Washington Post
Democracy can't function without a free press
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