iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 06/09/2026

For the rest of 2026 & into 2027 we will continue rewriting portions of model & recon systems to not be as demanding & hopefully won't be as susceptible to organizations overwhelming our site with automated requests. Until then, our site may not be available at times. Please use @hurricanecity.com.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 06/09/2026

We planned on consolidating our sites to tropicalglobe.com in 2027 as we weren't ready yet, but the site was becoming near inoperable and we made the switch today. So much of the site needs to be reconfigured. We still use the same server, but it's easier to manage security at Cloudflare this way.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 06/09/2026

Our site is consolidating our systems onto one site in order to manage security better and it will take at least a few days, if not a few weeks. Our site is also running too slowly to operate. It started with an organization downloading data too quickly but the issues continued after that.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 06/09/2026

For the next few days, until further notice, @hurricanecity.com will provide Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific model and recon data, including for Lowell. Models: hurricanecity.com/models/ Recon: hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.... None of our site will be available during that time.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 01/09/2026

I was able to apply the defensive mode to specific parts of the site and it has made it run less slow. Visitors will usually now get a Cloudflare page before visiting parts of the site. This is likely going to be a permanent change. For now KML network links also to continue to work.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 01/09/2026

The same organization is still attempting to access the exact same file 8,000 times every hour. Site is still running slow except when I put it in a defensive mode where it would block all KML networks links used in programs like ArcGIS Earth and Google Earth. For now I'll avoid that if possible.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 01/09/2026

On 8/31 an organization was accessing files several times every second before being banned. You will sometimes see Cloudflare interstitial before accessing our site. Even normal usage may be blocked for 10s if too many requests over 10s period. Be responsible using automated systems to use our site.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

This is now my 31st year writing these updates on tropical Atlantic activity. I have written approximately 1470 posts spanning 488 tropical cyclones including 228 hurricanes, 107 major hurricanes, and 57 retired storm names... 1996-2026 seems like a good milestone to wrap it up.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

First named storm of the season could be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 09/05/2026

Thanks. The audio came out pretty well considering some lines really don't work in a song structure. I actually wrote two more parts to it but they don't work as well yet. I'll have to revisit those parts.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 04/03/2026

I created a song for @hurricanecity.com's Hurricane Radio. (hurricanecity.com/radio.htm) Lyrics were written by me, a human, but otherwise everything else is done by artificial intelligence at Suno. Only non-commercial use allowed due to license restrictions at Suno. (but lyrics are public domain)

youtube.com

Every Year (AI Song)

YouTube video by TropicalAtlantic

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 18/02/2026

Before I could zoom in, the battery died. Though I did get four of the pictures, including the one with the fish, with just enough battery life left after I turned it back on.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 18/02/2026

These were all taken along a canal just west of Tampa International Airport. The drought shows. You can't see the manatees hardly. I just wanted to show the photobombing fish in the previous post which I caught by accident.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 18/02/2026

Why we live at the coast. Though if you're thinking about it, you might want to change your mind, hurricanes are nuisance! You can't really see them, but there's at least 5 manatees. My camera battery died while starting to take video, but I had just enough to turn back on and snap a few pictures.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 18/12/2025

Current administration's destruction of NCAR will be an unmitigated disaster that will kill lots of people. When they destroy something that saves lives, that's what they're doing. They won't move important parts somewhere else. Entire point is destruction & mayhem like every other action they take.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 01/11/2025

The Air Force & NOAA hurricane hunters conducted 33 missions into, and around, #Melissa. Additional information appears in the alternate text for the images.

As what is left of post-tropical cyclone Melissa moves rapidly off into the northern Atlantic east of Canada, we look back at the missions into Melissa as a tropical cyclone. The Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunters conducted 33 missions into, and around, Melissa. They surveyed the storm from the time it was a tropical storm and throughout its rapid intensification into one of the most intense tropical cyclones ever recorded. Its turbulence was so intense at times that multiple aircraft had to return early for safety to be inspected after passing through its intense eyewall. Melissa made landfall at its peak intensity in New Hope, Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 892 millibars. By both metrics Melissa tied, in both sustained wind speed and lowest mean sea level pressure, as the most intense tropical cyclone to ever make landfall on record in the Atlantic. (tying the landfalling wind speed of Hurricane Dorian in 2019 in the Bahamas and tying the landfalling pressure of the Labor Day hurricane in 1935 in the Florida Keys) The hurricane hunters continued their missions into the storm as long as it remained a threat to land as a tropical cyclone. The storm also had impacts in Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda before becoming extratropical and passing east of Newfoundland in Canada. (impacted areas include areas where it did not make landfall)

(A description of what appears in the map appears in the alternate text for image two.)

Map showing the missions by the Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunters into, and around, Melissa. White circle icons represent either the mean sea level pressure in millibars recorded by a dropsonde released from the plane or the estimated MSLP if that data was not available. This data comes from a vortex data message. In cases where the wind was not calm enough at the center, the actual pressure may be estimated to be lower and that pressure is not reflected on the icon.

Wind barbs represent the wind speed and direction from the 30 second flight level wind that is usually reported every 30 seconds in a high density observation. (HDOB message)

A dropsonde icon, pictured as a slender tube, is what is used to measure pressure, temperature and dew point as it falls from the aircraft. A dropsonde is released from the aircraft by a tube.

The Air Force used multiple Lockheed WC-130J Hercules aircraft while NOAA used a Lockheed WP-3D Orion to survey the storm and penetrate its eye. NOAA also used a Gulfstream IV-SP to sample around the storm.

Screenshot from Google Earth.
Blue Marble image background from NASA GIBS.
World coastlines from Natural Earth.

(A description of the historic storm appears in the alternate text for image one.)

A closeup of hurricane hunter mission data from around Jamaica showing its rapid intensification as noted by the vortex icons described in the alternate text for image two.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 31/10/2025

Thanks. I'll add the disclaimer to all the decoded dropsonde data in my archive when I have a chance. People too often get confused by that and I wanted to make it more clear.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 31/10/2025

Thanks for checking into it. I'll work on adding a note about that to that sonde in my archive.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

Part 3 of 3: "Near the beginning and end of the descent, the effective averaging period shortens as the filter tapers to zero. Earlier dropsondes used a 10-second filter." Thanks.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

Part 2 of 3: "Before transmission, the data is processed through a low-pass filter whose half-power amplitude occurs at a 5-second wavelength. This means that wind fluctuations occurring faster than about every five seconds are increasingly damped, reducing short-term noise and turbulence."

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

But the conversation isn't important. I was wondering what the result sounded like to add. I have to ask scientists when I add something like it: Part 1 of 3: "A dropsonde's reported winds represent roughly a five-second smoothed average derived from measurements taken about every 0.25 seconds."

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

I was trying to put together a disclaimer for my website to add to dropsonde data. I'm not a meteorologist, instead I code things, so I inputted what you had said to ChatGPT to help me understand it some. That long conversation is here & probably has errors: tropicalatlantic.com/reconnaissan...

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

I was able to find raw sonde. Link is commented out on this page: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pa... So that the link doesn't appear. But file still is: www.aoml.noaa.gov/ftp/hrd/data... With launch time of 2005/08/28, 14:21:03.92 I included some screenshots of that section. (truncating part of it)

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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

I deeply respect the work that's been invested into exploring our approaches to tracking high-end tropical cyclones, but I can't in good conscience remain silent regarding the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) and discussion around a so-called category 6. 🧵 [1/5]

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

From presentation about Katrina sonde (continued): "If valid, these would be the highest winds recorded to date in the eight years that GPS sondes have been sampling these BL maxima." Thanks.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

From presentation about Katrina sonde: "A dropsonde released into the inner edge of that northeast eyewall descended into a mesovortex that contained a boundary layer (BL) wind peak of 120 meters per second (m/s), or 234 knots, at the 866 mb level (approximately 600 meters above the Gulf surface)."

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

I couldn't really find much about that Katrina sonde. I found one mention of it here from a presentation in 2006: ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurric... "The Intensity of Wind Gust Underneath Areas of Deep Eyewall Convection in Hurricanes Katrina and Dennis at Landfall" PDF: ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpaper...

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

Thanks. Does that mean it currently takes 2.5 seconds of data above the pressure altitude and 2.5 seconds below it and averages it all together for the reported pressure altitude? And then for surface wind is it less than 5 seconds or the last five seconds before the sonde terminates?

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

Also, do you know what the wind reported in the dropsonde message is averaged over? (The ones released in WMO messages) Such as a half second perhaps? Or 0.25, or 1? I would like to put that information on my site. Maybe it has varied over the years and I can put a range if so.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/10/2025

Was 234 knot sonde at the 866mb level in Katrina unreliable? tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.... Nothing really matches close to it for that storm though, expect one with 182 knots on another mission at the 839mb level. Melissa had another mission with one with 210 knots & other high readings.

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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Not since 1935 has anyone experienced a storm like Melissa. Melissa's record wouldn't have happened without climate change, which made the hurricane's winds about 10 mph stronger, according to a rapid attribution analysis by Climate Central. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cata...

yaleclimateconnections.org

Catastrophic Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record » Yale Climate Connections

At landfall in western Jamaica, Melissa’s 185 mph winds and 892 mb pressure tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 in the Florida Keys as the strongest on record for the Atlantic.

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World Central Kitchen @wck.org · 27/10/2025

WCK is in Jamaica ahead of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa’s landfall. The storm is expected to bring destructive winds, torrential rain & widespread flooding. We’re working with local partners to serve meals as quickly as possible. Read more: wck.org/news/hurricane-melissa #ChefsForJamaica

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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm. My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔

Plot of vertical temperature profiles measured by one Argo float from October 18 (solid black line, dot on map) and October 28 (dashed black line, star on map) in the top 120 meters of the ocean near Hurricane Melissa's track segment from October 27. That track segment is represented by the short dashed purple line on the inset map, and it's short due to Melissa's slow forward speed on that date.

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Yale Climate Connections @climateconnections.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

A climate justice disaster is underway in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa moves over the island.

Powered by abnormally warm waters, Melissa is one of the strongest storms on record. A graphic by Climate Central shows that Hurricane Melissa strengthened over warm water temperatures made at least 800 times more likely by climate change.

Like many in frontline communities, Jamaicans produce a very small amount of the pollution that is changing our climate. The U.S. emitted 17.34 t CO2eq per capita in 2024. Jamaica emitted 3.22 t CO2eq per capita.

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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Major Hurricane Melissa makes a historic landfall near New Hope, Jamaica.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

1:00pm EDT on Oct 28, 2025: #Melissa has made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica with 185mph wind & pressure of 892mb. For wind, ties for strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane matching Labor Day hurricane in 1935 in Florida Keys & Dorian in 2019 in Bahamas. For pressure, ties for Labor Day hurricane

Satellite image of Hurricane Melissa at landfall in Jamaica from: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

Katrina had one a bit higher, but I don't if it is valid (234 knots, 269 mph): tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

At 11:15 am EDT, Air Force hurricane hunters posted about returning to Curacao "after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa". "During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence" www.facebook.com/hurricanehun...

"A 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew (call sign TEAL 75), known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, is returning to it's forward operating location in Curaçao after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm.
During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence. While this does not automatically indicate damage, standard safety procedures require an inspection before returning to operations.
The 53rd WRS is an Air Force Reserve unit assigned to the 403rd Wing, Keesler Air Force Base, Miss."

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

A catastrophic, historical event is about to unfold in Jamaica. Hurricane warnings are also in effect for parts of eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas which will also experience the impact of #Melissa.

Air Force mission through 9:37am EDT.
NOAA mission through 9:33am EDT.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

If #Melissa makes landfall with a pressure of 892 millibars, it would tie as the lowest pressure on record for a landfalling Atlantic hurricane. The "1935 Labor Day" hurricane in 1935 made landfall in the Florida Keys with a pressure of 892mb.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

9:05am EDT Monday on #Melissa: Air Force dropsonde has measured a pressure of 893 millibars. (with 13 knots of surface wind this may indicate a pressure of around 892 millibars) If 893mb, it makes it 4th strongest ever recoded in the Atlantic in terms of pressure. If 892mb, it makes it tied for 3rd.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

9am EDT Tuesday update from NHC on #Melissa: "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches)." www.nhc.noaa.gov

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 28/10/2025

Air Force hurricane hunters departed at 6:12am EDT from Curacao for #Melissa.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 27/10/2025

A disclaimer about SFMR estimated wind data will now appear in the recon system's archive page for an HDOB in some cases.

Image with the message:

"Disclaimer about estimated surface wind data from the SFMR instrument:
SFMR data is estimated based on the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument. Surface winds are estimated from that instrument. At higher values, any available SFMR surface wind data may be less reliable compared to estimates in storms with lesser winds. Please use SFMR readings with caution if they do not correlate well to the flight level wind. This note is automatically made more prominent in our recon system in some cases. It does not necessarily indicate that the data is inaccurate, but instead that the data should be interpreted with more caution."

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 27/10/2025

A sonde measured a pressure of 925mb at an elevation of 4 meters at 1:54am EDT. While some of the data is unclear from the sonde, it may have had wind of 16 knots at the surface. Please visit the NHC for the latest updates: www.nhc.noaa.gov If needed, they would post an update before 5am EDT.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 27/10/2025

In regard to high SFMR readings with the current Air Force mission, please see this post from @franklinjamesl.bsky.social. SFMR readings are estimated. Recon does indicate that Melissa is further strengthening and some of the most recent flight level wind data was not available for the 2am advisory.

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Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

If current forecasts hold, Melissa will be the most powerful hurricane ever to strike Jamaica. Sustained winds at landfall may top 140 mph, along with localized rains of 40"+ and major storm surge. Here's my latest update with @drjeffmasters.bsky.social: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/meli...

yaleclimateconnections.org

Melissa leaps from tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane in 18 hours » Yale Climate Connections

Catastrophic impacts are becoming increasingly likely for Jamaica, with Melissa expected to crash onshore by early Tuesday.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/08/2025

Using actual wind radii gives results that do not match NHC due to smoothing not being applied. 1st image is NHC smoothed wind swath. 2nd is wind radii based on forecast advisory history (with interpolation; has bugs) 3rd is a smoothed wind field based on equation from AI. But I want exact NHC code.

From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIN_graphics.php?product=current_wind

Early example of a program I am writing with the help of AI. It still has some bugs in the code that prevent swaths from lining up properly with each segment drawn. You can see how the wind swath in this covers much of Nova Scotia but with the NHC's smoothed wind swath it doesn't.

A smoothed wind field at the same forecast point as the first image using an equation generated by AI.

A fuller example of an early version of the web based script on a Leaflet map.

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Tropical Globe @tropicalglobe.com · 30/08/2025

I'm writing code to display wind swath over life of storm using track & wind radii. Want to include exact smoothing NHC uses. "smooth wind field depicted on the graphic is produced by a trigonometric interpolation between the four defined radii" (www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindfie...) Anyone know how?

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