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Trevor Tombe

@trevortombe.bsky.social
9.1K followers 133 following 389 posts

Professor of Economics, University of Calgary | Alum U of T & SFU | Inflation, carbon taxes, equalization, internal trade, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻

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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Alberta suspended its gas tax today, and the federal government has extended its. Do consumers actually benefit? My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the evidence: thehub.ca/2026/09/30/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Yes, government cuts to fuel taxes really do lower your price at the pump
Provincial fuel tax cuts: real relief for drivers, or a windfall for gas retailers? Trevor Tombe crunches the numbers to find out.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Great question, and that was not analyzed in the documents. Although Jen has been doing interviews on precisely that topic around separation and climate policy.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The University of Calgary's @policy_school completed an independent analysis of the potential economic and fiscal consequences of Alberta separating from Canada. All of the results and documentation are available here: open.alberta.ca/publication... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
BIG tax change announced today. A “productivity mega deduction” broadens how much is eligible for immediate expensing. That cuts the effective tax on new investment in half. More to do, but this is big. Details: www.canada.ca/en/departme... #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Job opportunity for economics faculty! 🚨 The University of Calgary’s Department of Economics is seeking applications for an Assistant/Associate Professor position, with a focus on industrial organisation or regulatory econ. Details here: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
But they'd receive those benefits anyway, so they're behind by $250
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
That's a separate issue.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Tariffs don't affect the size of child benefits.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Good question! And no it does not. Pure mechanical, so costs will be lower given that behavior change. Thought I noted this in the piece but may not have been clear. Sorry.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Nothing in the piece suggests that would be wise. It's about quantifying the cost of tariffs, which one is free to agree or disagree with as a move. That's a separate issue.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Whatever one thinks about the merits of retaliatory tariffs, there are real costs to consider, especially on those Canadians least able to bear them. In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the effect on prices and households: thehub.ca/2026/09/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
A $4 billion hit: What Carney’s tariff retaliation could cost Canadian consumers
Families with kids face costs of roughly $250 per year from the tariffs
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
In non-trade-dispute news, AB's fiscal update is out! 🎉 From a $9.4b deficit projected back in February's budget, to a $2b surplus (based on avg $73.5/bbl oil) now. May still understate things given where markets are now. Documents: www.alberta.ca/budget-docu... #cdnecon
alberta.ca
Budget documents
Detailed Alberta government budget documents, quarterly updates and economic statements, organized by fiscal year.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
It was a great pleasure to join @thebigstory.bsky.social to talk trade!
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
The Big Story @thebigstory.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
What will the #Canada-US trade war cost you? Today on The Big Story, we get into the latest round of #tariffs imposed by both the US and Canada with @trevortombe.bsky.social, professor and Director of Fiscal and Economic Policy at @ucalgary.bsky.social. Listen here: lnk.to/bigstory
Greyscale photo of Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne speaking at a podium with red circle and eye in the corner. Champagne recently announced that Canada will be providing up to $7.5B in tariff relief for Canadian workers and businesses
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Where do Canadian retaliatory tariffs land? Based on all affected products on Sept 8 (including pre-existing tariffs), here's the value of exports times tariff rates as a share of each state's GDP. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The full list of 893 items subject to retaliatory tariffs on September 8 is available here: www.canada.ca/en/departme...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Tariff retaliation should try to do three things: hurt U.S. producers, be politically well targeted, and limit damage at home. The problem? We can't to do all three. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s tariff retaliation trilemma: thehub.ca/2026/08/24/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Which American goods should Carney tariff? Breaking down Canada’s retaliation trilemma
Tariffing American goods sounds simple until you realize Canada can't maximize pain, minimize self-harm, and stay WTO-compliant all at once. Here's the trilemma Carney faces.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
He did, yes. Referring to "tariff measures" that we'll get details around soon. Set for Sept 8.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The rise then you see is 1946 when trade policies began normalizing after the war. Not tariff rises so much as just volumes of dutiable items increased. The spike before then was the retaliation over smoot hawley in 1931.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Preliminary estimates: Canada's "dollar for dollar" retaliation would push its average tariff on imports from the U.S. to levels last seen in the late 1970s. And would be the sharpest rise in nearly a century. #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I was off by a couple thousand years then? 😬
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
No doubt. But it's an estimate of someone that hasn't happened. Assumptions are the only way forward. I hope I was transparent in how I approached the analysis.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
How many jobs are (were?) at risk from the U.S. 50% tariffs? New estimates for @TheHubCanada show impact could be broad, even where tariffs didn't hit directly (like AB). thehub.ca/2026/08/20/... Useful context, even if agreement reached. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Canada is gradually returning to normal rates of growth, but along a permanently lower path. Currently ~$60b below the path we were previously on. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the latest data: thehub.ca/2026/08/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
It's true the administration has said the aim is to change trade balances. Tariffs are unlikely to succeed at that, though that's a separate issue. Not an attack on Canada on those grounds since it's broad based so can be viewed as US domestic policy (unwise policy, IMHO, just to be clear)
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
There are tariffs on most counties, as illustrated in the piece. Not specific to Canada.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Good question, and how I've been thinking differently about this. If they adopt damaging income tax policies domestically, that lowers our exports too. But wouldn't consider that an attack.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Indeed the piece offers that point: if we think it would change US behavior.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Trump’s tariffs are not an attack on Canada’s economy. They’re an attack on America’s. We should respond accordingly. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s best response: thehub.ca/2026/07/30/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Doug Ford is wrong: Why doing nothing at all is Canada’s best response to Trump’s tariffs
Everyone assumes Canada must hit back against Trump's tariffs. An economist argues the math says otherwise — retaliation could cost Canadians more than it costs the US.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so.
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
Tammy Schirle 🇨🇦 @tammyschirle.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I appreciate @trevortombe.bsky.social's POV, but... I tend to take a different starting point on some of this - First, he's right that mechanically, the overall (age 15+) participation rate drops when the pop ages. But it's important to point out that within age groups, people are working more
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: thehub.ca/2026/07/16/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Great question. The report provides a few reasons to consider. Another not in the report is that the GST is roughly half the size of current transfers.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Some argue Canada should abandon equalization altogether, but the better path is to renew the entire system of transfers. My latest for @MLInstitute offers a simple, more transparent, more growth-oriented, and more sustainable option: macdonaldlaurier.ca/rebalancing... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
macdonaldlaurier.ca
Rebalancing Canada: A two-pillar reform of equalization and federal transfers | Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Some critics argue Canada should abandon equalization or federal transfers altogether, but the better path forward is to renew the system with a simpler structure.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
While oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels, Alberta's fiscal situation remains dramatically improved. Accumulated surpluses since April means lower oil prices are needed to balance. AB is on track for modest surplus. A +$10B improvement.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
A very good question! (I don't know the answer)
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Roughly, there’s ~$800 billion in taxpayer-funded education sitting outside the province that paid for it. With Alberta and B.C. the largest beneficiaries. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the largest financial transfer nobody talks about: thehub.ca/2026/07/02/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
The biggest financial transfer in Canada that nobody talks about
Why Alberta and B.C. are Canada’s biggest brain drain beneficiaries
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
This is growth not levels, so wouldn't think there's a mechanical link there at all. Fwiw, the biggest AB contributor is construction, followed by healthcare. So not an oil story there.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The preliminary labour productivity statistics for 2025 are out: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... PEI leads at 4.9%, with AB and NL next up at 3.8%. National growth was 0.7%. #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
From this morning's inflation report, Canada's overall rate is up 0.9% compared to start of year. That's half the increase seen in the U.S. Why the difference? I explain in a piece for @TheHubCanada here (from last Thurs): thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Another way to see this, I estimate that the May 2026 inflation rate would have been 1.9% if energy prices did not change. This is just to illustrate the point, not denying that energy prices are important.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The relationship between oil prices and energy's contribution to inflation is extremely strong (obviously). With oil prices down already, the rate of inflation should fall by roughly a full point within a month or two. (Unless oil prices rises again... which... who knows)
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May. What's behind the surge? Oil prices. That's it. Most other important components are pulling down the overall rate. #cdnecon 🧵
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Why is Canada’s inflation rate so much lower than the U.S.? It’s not because our prices are rising more slowly. My latest for @TheHubCanada explains: thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Canada’s inflation situation looks better than America’s—it’s not. Here’s why
Canada's inflation looks better than America's. But strip away the methodology differences and the picture changes entirely. Here's what the numbers actually show.
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
Bank of Canada @bankofcanada.ca · 12/06/2026
ICYMI: Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. To balance these risks, we've held our policy rate at 2.25%. We are committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. 👉 bit.ly/49ZE0z7
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Ha!! Hopefully. I hear that number solves a lot of problems ;)
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The more freely Canadians can live, work, and do business across the country, the more the value of the federation shows up in ordinary life. My latest on how doubling down on Canada's economic union might help with separatism: thehub.ca/2026/06/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
How to actually fight separatism: Deepen the economic ties between provinces
The case for national unity isn’t about dividing the pie
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
Jared Wesley @jaredwesley.ca · 25/05/2026
The stakes in this referendum are too high to sit it out. We need to build a solid case, not just for staying put, but for a stronger Alberta within a better Canada. That's why I'm joining other prominent conservatives in making the case for Alberta to lead, not leave. www.leadnotleave.ca
leadnotleave.ca
Lead. Not Leave.
A policy initiative for Albertans committed to a strong Alberta within a united Canada.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The status quo is not desirable, but a referendum on separation is even less so. Alberta must lead, not leave. www.readtheline.ca/p/alberta-m... #cdnpoli #ableg
readtheline.ca
Alberta must lead, not leave
Welcome to Lead Not Leave: a team of academics, policy wonks, political activists and journalists forging a practical path forward for our fellow frustrated federalists.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
“Opinions among Albertans overall about their province’s treatment in the Canadian federation have been steadily improving” but there has been also been “a steady polarization of opinions.” Check out the latest Confederation of Tomorrow report: environicsinstitute.org/spotlight-o... #cdnpoli
environicsinstitute.org
Spotlight on Alberta 2026 | Environics Institute for Survey Research
While Albertans have become less likely to express feelings of “Western alienation,” there has been a steady polarization of opinions in the province.
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