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The Trade War Lab

@tradewarlab.bsky.social
149 followers 196 following 37 posts

Global Trade, Local Consequences. | Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation. Supported by the University of Kansas.

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Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Phelim Kine @phelimkine.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
"Trump said he got a commitment from Xi to purchase soybeans from American farmers, curb the flow of fentanyl and postpone its export restrictions on rare earths" But that TikTok "deal" remains in limbo.... www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
politico.com
‘Amazing meeting’: Trump touts progress on multiple fronts with China after meeting Xi
The president said the meeting with the Chinese leader exceeded expectations, and he lowered the tariff rate.
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Christopher Mims @mims.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over Loss of Chinese Buyers * China hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months * Without a deal soon, one farmer warns of “a bloodbath” * The economics are bad enough that some farmers are already calling it quits www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
wsj.com
America’s Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over the Loss of Chinese Buyers
China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer, hasn’t booked any U.S. soybean purchases in months. Farmers warn of a “bloodbath.”
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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
"A Country-Specific View of Tariffs" via @NewYorkFed libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/10/a-co... "the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories"
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Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 21/09/2025
At least through July 2025, US firms were absorbing most of the tariff burden through compressed spreads between the cost of imported goods paid by the firms & selling prices they received. Read: www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economi…
piie.com
Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses.
President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...
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Rep. Emanuel Cleaver @cleaver.house.gov · 03/10/2025
The president’s tariff taxes have sent grocery prices soaring and devastated American farmers nationwide. Now, he needs $50 BILLION to fix his mistake. And you wonder how he bankrupted numerous businesses… www.politico.com/news/2025/10...
politico.com
Trump making plans to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers with taxpayer money
The president has also said he wants to use direct tariff revenue for the payments, but that could trigger a major fight in Congress.
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Todd Tucker @toddntucker.com · 06/10/2025
Tariff impact beginning to show in prices ⚡Citigroup estimates firms have eaten 60% of tariff cost, but that will flip to 40%, with rest paid by consumers ⚡AutoZone tells investors customers will be willing to pay it, since cars won't start without needed parts www.ft.com/content/f4bd...
ft.com
Impact of Trump tariffs is beginning to show in US consumer prices
Trade levies are starting to drive up costs for goods from cans of soup to car parts
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Ray Beckerman @raybeckerman.bsky.social · 05/10/2025
Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
motherjones.com
Indigenous Nations Plan Tariff-Free Trade Corridor Across US-Canada border
“We’re not begging for crumbs anymore. We’re demanding what’s rightly ours."
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
How are the US and Japan de-risking with China? Despite targeting many of the same sectors, their approaches reveal fundamentally different priorities. A thread on what the legislative data shows: 🧵 www.tradewarlab.com/p/the-politi...
tradewarlab.com
The Politics of De-Risking
As Washington and Tokyo tighten controls on trade with China, their approaches reveal both shared anxieties and strikingly different priorities.
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results: the Trump administration has launched new Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices. #tradewar www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
reuters.com
US opens tariff probes into medical equipment, robotics, industrial machinery
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday it has opened new national security investigations into the import of personal protective equipment, medical items, robotics and industrial machinery.
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 16/09/2025
NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers. There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports. More:
piie.com
Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses.
President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...
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Mike Krings @mkrings.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
If you want to understand the trade war, tariffs, what's happened and what might come next, talk to an international trade law expert. That's what I did when Raj Bhala appeared on the latest episode of our When Experts Attack podcast. whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com
When Experts Attack!: Trump’s trade war didn’t come from nowhere
International trade expert Raj Bhala assesses the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II and asks whether manufacturing will really return to the U.S.
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National Committee on U.S.-China Relations @ncuscr.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
How is China reshaping the global economic order? Ka Zeng (@umassamherst.bsky.social) discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S. ▶️ Watch: www.ncuscr.org/video/china-global-e…
ncuscr.org
China’s Strategic Advances in the Global Economy
Ka Zeng discusses China’s role in the global economy amid economic competition with the U.S.
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Amy Klobuchar @amyklobuchar.com · 15/09/2025
From groceries to energy bills, Trump's tariffs and economic chaos are increasing costs for Americans.
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 17/09/2025
Tariffs are bad. Illegal ones are worse. (via Bloomberg Opinion)
bloom.bg
Liberation Day Tariffs Are an Increasingly Costly Mistake
The Supreme Court may soon strike down the president’s signature trade plan. It’s for the best.
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell. Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇 www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
tradewarlab.com
Why Farmers Kept Planting Crops China Wouldn’t Buy
How partisan loyalty shaped farmers’ planting decisions during the U.S.–China trade war.
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
America’s protectionist turn has accelerated at historic speed. Tariffs now average 15.8%, the steepest rise since the 1930s, surpassing even Smoot-Hawley We review the #economics literature to understand the causes & consequences of the free trade backlash! www.tradewarlab.com/p/assessing-...
tradewarlab.com
Assessing the Costs of America’s Protectionist Turn
Tracing back trade expansion
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Corporate influence has quietly become a defining feature of US–China trade tensions. Trade War Lab data shows that as tariffs uncertainty & industrial policy mounted American firms dramatically expanded their lobbying of the US Trade Representative (USTR). www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-corpor...
tradewarlab.com
How Corporate Influence Reacts to U.S.–China Trade Policy
New Trade War Lab data sheds light on how American firms are lobbying the USTR.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Tariffs can’t bend the laws of nature. Bananas need tropics, coffee needs altitude. You can't onshore these things. So tariffs just raise prices. The White House just worked this out. So we're getting carveouts. But only if you do a deal with the White House. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
On the latest “When Experts Attack!” episode, @universityofkansas.bsky.social trade law expert Raj Bhala addresses “the greatest disruption in trade since the end of World War II,” including what tariffs mean for Canada. Listen and subscribe. whenexpertsattack.libsyn.com/trumps-trade...
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Cato Institute @cato.org · 02/09/2025
Strong trade keeps peace strong. "Commercial wars always present the possibility of turning into shooting wars. That is one of the main reasons we created first the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its institutional successor, the WTO, in the first place". Read more from James Bacchus ⬇️
thehill.com
Please, don’t abandon the World Trade Organization
Michael Froman, former U.S. trade representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, has called for the abandonment of the rule-based international trading system overseen by…
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 28/08/2025
President Trump’s tariffs are raising government revenues, but how much is the US Treasury actually collecting from US importers after the starts, stops, delays, exclusions, & other factors? And what products & countries are hit? We explore: bit.ly/45QWyPc
piie.com
Trump's tariff revenue tracker: How much is the US collecting? Which imports are hit?
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of the Trade War Lab Substack 📈🌏 🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com 🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab Let’s make sense of the chaos — together. #TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
tradewarlab.com
Trade War Lab | Substack
Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation. Supported by the University of Kansas. Click to read Trade War Lab, a Substack publication. Launched a day ago.
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Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Reuters @reuters.com · 02/09/2025
US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag reut.rs/3UWrCbf
reut.rs
US manufacturing contracts for sixth straight month amid tariff drag
U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth straight month in August as factories dealt with the fallout from the Trump administration's import tariffs, with some manufacturers describing the current business environment as "much worse than the Great Recession."
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
During Trump’s first trade war (2018–2020), China hit U.S. farmers with tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Exports collapsed. Prices fell. Logic says farmers should’ve shifted away. Many didn’t. Some even planted more. Why? 👇 www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-farmer...
tradewarlab.com
Why Farmers Kept Planting Crops China Wouldn’t Buy
How partisan loyalty shaped farmers’ planting decisions during the U.S.–China trade war.
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Cato Institute @cato.org · 27/08/2025
The Trump administration's steel tariffs came with a massive surge in steel industry lobbying expenditures. Coincidence? Clark Packard follows the money trail showing how K Street and steelmakers coordinated to boost prices at everyone else's expense 📈
cato.org
Protectionist Elites Enrich Themselves at the Economy’s Broader Expense
Much of US trade policy for the last 60 years can be explained through the power and influence of the domestic steel industry. Over that period, Washington—to the cheers of industry lobbyists—has...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 28/08/2025
It is a tragic & destructive irony that, in the name of national security, the United States is now injuring the allies that have contributed the most to its economic well-being while leaving China far less disadvantaged. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state…
foreignaffairs.com
The New Economic Geography
Who profits in a post-American world?
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 27/08/2025
Breaking News: President Trump’s 50% tariff on imports from India has taken effect, jeopardizing the country’s relationship with the U.S.
nyti.ms
Full Weight of American Tariffs Slams Into Effect Against India
As punishment for buying Russian oil, President Trump is doubling the tax on goods imported from India, jeopardizing a relationship decades in the making.
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Why didn’t U.S. multinationals fight back against the trade war? A new study of 500 firms shows most stayed silent—despite tariffs hitting global supply chains hard. 🧵 www.tradewarlab.com/p/how-multin...
tradewarlab.com
How Multinationals Managed the Trade War
Exit, voice, and loyalty in an era of rising protectionism.
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The Economist @economist.com · 21/08/2025
As countries strike tariff deals with Donald Trump to secure market access, they are drawing up alternatives. The president wanted America at the centre of world trade. Things are not going to plan econ.st/45NuOLj Photo: Gilles Sabrié/The New York Times/Redux/eyevine
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Text of the US-EU trade deal is out: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st... The most important thing is what's not there. Trump had boasted "They gave me $600 billion, and that’s a gift." But guess what? They didn't. He didn't get a penny.
whitehouse.gov
Joint Statement on a United States-European Union Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade
The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Are American companies fleeing China? A new paper from Vortherms & Zhang finds exits did increase during the 2018–19 trade war, but the story is more complex than a mass departure. Read more: www.tradewarlab.com/p/are-americ...
tradewarlab.com
Are American Companies Fleeing China?
Exits rose across the board, but the heavyweight incumbents largely stayed put.
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Reposted by The Trade War Lab
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 22/08/2025
Average US tariffs on Chinese exports now stand at 57.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. China's average tariffs on US exports are at 32.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods, according to ‪@chadpbown.com‬ tracker update:
piie.com
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
In 2018, Trump’s tariffs on China cost U.S. businesses & consumers billions each month. Many expected strong pushback. Instead, much of corporate America stayed quiet. New research from Trade War Lab Director Jack Zhang & colleagues explains why: www.tradewarlab.com/p/why-americ...
tradewarlab.com
Why America’s Businesses Bit Their Tongues on Tariffs
Political loyalty, not profit margins, drove firms’ surprising silence during Trump’s trade war
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The Economist @economist.com · 12/08/2025
Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war
econ.st
How scared should you be of “the China squeeze”?
Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 12/08/2025
Breaking News: President Trump signed an executive order delaying U.S. tariffs on China for another three months.
nyti.ms
Trump Extends China Tariff Truce
President Trump signed an executive order that offered a reprieve from the threat of escalating tariffs and export controls that have rocked the global economy.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
"Tariffs are simple. Tariffs are a tax. When you raise tax rates, you get more tax revenue... And so what's happening right now is we have just had the largest tax rise in history that has NOT been passed by Congress. "
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 14/07/2025
COMING APRIL 2026
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of the Trade War Lab Substack 📈🌏 🔔 Subscribe here: tradewarlab.com 🔗 Or follow us on X @TradeWarLab Let’s make sense of the chaos — together. #TradeWar #tariffs #geoeconomics #substack
tradewarlab.com
Trade War Lab | Substack
Analyzing trade politics through research, analysis, engagement, and innovation. Supported by the University of Kansas. Click to read Trade War Lab, a Substack publication. Launched a day ago.
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Tariffs are generally considered regressive taxes because lower-income households are the ones who are least able to afford the goods we’re importing, @universityofkansas.bsky.social expert @tradewarlab.bsky.social tells @marketplace.org. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
marketplace.org
Where is our tariff revenue going?
The U.S. collects billions in tariff revenue each year and it all ends up with the U.S. Treasury.
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
China's strong state control over soybean imports and prices mean a potential embargo requires less coordination than in a free market, @universityofkansas.bsky.social trade war expert Jack Zhang (@tradewarlab.bsky.social) tells @washingtonpost.com. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
As Trump softens his tone on the trade war, China refuses to budge
Beijing continues to be willing to endure economic hardship to put pressure on the U.S., even as the Trump administration hints at a more conciliatory approach.
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Trade War Lab director Jack Zhang spoke with the @washingtonpost.com as China rethinks its reliance on a key U.S. export: soybeans. Read below: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 15/04/2025
which i think just means Statista charges people for a chart they could get for free from our website at PIIE? and note Statista has not asked if they can post this chart or charge for it. hmmmm so maybe go to the PIIE website and get the free version? www.piie.com/research/pii...
piie.com
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Bookmarking this valuable tracker on student visa revocations, from @insidehighered.com As of right now, IHE database shows that more than 1,000 international students & recent graduates have had their legal status changed by State Dept. www.insidehighered.com/news/global/...
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Reporting for @kshb41.bsky.social, Lily O'Shea Becker spoke with @universityofkansas.bsky.social expert @tradewarlab.bsky.social about what “buy American” means. “The things that have the ‘Made in America’ label have components that are imported from overseas as well.” www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
kshb.com
What does 'Made in USA' mean? Scholar notices uptick in companies advertising American-made goods
Earlier this month, the Trump administration said, "'Made in America' is not just a tagline — it’s an economic and national security priority of this administration."
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The Trade War Lab @tradewarlab.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
"This rate of escalation and the impact it's going to have on U.S. consumers and businesses is going to be profound," The Trade War Lab spoke with KSHB41 about our research and how the trade war is already affecting America's heartland communities:
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Watch @kshb41.bsky.social as reporter Lily O'Shea Becker takes a look at what's going on at the @universityofkansas.bsky.social in political scientist Jack Zhang’s @tradewarlab.bsky.social. www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
kshb.com
Trade War Lab at University of Kansas explores local impacts of tariffs, students learn in real time
Students with University of Kansas' Trade War Lab are learning about the United States-China trade conflict as history unfolds.
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WIRED @wired.com · 09/04/2025
Today, China hit back with an 84% tariff on U.S. goods after the U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese imports—so expect smartphone and laptop prices to rise. Here's a breakdown from experts on just what Americans might expect to pay more on: www.wired.com/story/tariff...
wired.com
Tariffs Will Make Electronics More Expensive. If You Need a New Gadget, ‘Buy It Now’
A 104 percent tariff on imports from China will likely see rising prices on smartphones and laptops in the coming months.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
This was accurate for about 20 minutes. And that's not @chadpbown.com or @piie.com's fault. When trade policy shifts faster than people can even calculate the basic state of play, much less the potential impacts, you have a recipe for continued market uncertainty and instability.
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Lili Pike @lilipike.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
The latest installment in what has now become a daily US-China tariffs series, looking ahead at how long the escalating war of attrition might last and how a truce could be brokered. w/ @christinalu.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/09/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Can Washington and Beijing Walk Back Their Trade War?
Both countries have expressed interest in negotiations, but it may be a painful journey to get there.
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KU News Service @kunewsservice.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Companies bringing manufacturing home stand to gain relative to their peers, but it doesn’t mean they'll escape unscathed, @thealexknapp.bsky.social reports. Read what @universityofkansas.bsky.social expert @tradewarlab.bsky.social told @forbes.com. www.forbes.com/sites/alexkn...
forbes.com
Trump’s Tariffs: Coming To Your Medicine Cabinet Soon
The days of affordable prescription drugs —generics included — may soon come to an end thanks to President Trump’s aggressive tariffs and the global trade war they are inciting.
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