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Thomas Pope

@tompope.bsky.social
1.8K followers 477 following 145 posts

Chief Economist @instituteforgov.bsky.social

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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 05/10/2026
The prime minister is right to reform the pensions triple lock. But @tompope.bsky.social says Andy Burnham will need to be as bold at the budget if he is to fund new spending commitments www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham should follow triple lock reforms with more boldness on other fiscal problems | Institute for Government
The PM is right to reform the pensions triple lock.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk applauds Andy Burnham for tackling the absurdity of the triple lock. He will need to show more of the same boldness at the budget and beyond to properly fund his social care reform and other priorities www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham should follow triple lock reforms with more boldness on other fiscal problems | Institute for Government
The PM is right to reform the pensions triple lock.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Treasury underestimated the impact of the triple lock was that they did not anticipate the seesaw between inflation and earnings. That is what has led to the big rise in spending and the pension growing well ahead of earnings. There are proposals around to ensure it grows with earnings.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
As we've recommended, the government should take the steps necessary to reduce focus on fiscal rule specifics by setting out clearer objectives, explaining how rules flow from those, + retaining enough headroom so small OBR judgments aren't decisive www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Strengthening the UK’s fiscal framework | Institute for Government
The UK’s fiscal framework, including a flawed set of rules, incentivises bad policy decisions shaped by short-termism and fictional spending plans.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Ultimately I agree with where the committee has landed in its recommendations: now is not the time to radically change the remit of the OBR. It has simply become the latest bogeyman to take the blame for the UK's difficult fiscal position and government's difficulties in dealing with it
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The report gives a good summary of the conflicting views on the OBR: it holds an influential position, its judgments are sometimes seen to be dictating policy, but its judgments only carry weight because of the fiscal rules and broader fiscal choices government has made
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I am only now getting round to reading the Treasury Select Committee report on the OBR. It's a good report that quotes our @instituteforgovernment.org.uk evidence in several places A few thoughts: committees.parliament.uk/publications...
committees.parliament.uk
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Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NEW IfG report out today on how government should approach reforming health and disability benefits The big takeaway: the system needs to better match people’s needs to the right support - through assessment reform, political leadership and more... www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Designing better incapacity benefits | Institute for Government
Personalising benefits and support is key to helping disabled people into work.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk is a reflection on what No.10 North and devo might mean for policy eco-systems outside London (and specifically in Manchester). Reflections based on my 4 years living in Manchester working for a think tank instituteforgov.substack.com/p/on-no10-no...
instituteforgov.substack.com
On No.10 North and the Manchester policy ecosystem
Tom Pope, the IfG’s Manchester correspondent, is optimistic about the future of UK politics’ self-styled second city
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Burnham and Healey have finally acknowledged the scale of the fiscal challenge. Now they need a budget that meets that challenge. It won't be easy, but the timid alternative is worse. My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk . www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves | Institute for Government
The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 22/09/2026
If the PM and chancellor are (finally) alive to the challenges facing them, then they must deliver a budget that meets them head on. This means presenting a coherent strategy for fiscal policy for the rest of this parliament and beyond www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves | Institute for Government
The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 21/09/2026
Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves A precarious fiscal inheritance is not a surprise. The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices. New from @tompope.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves | Institute for Government
The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 21/09/2026
LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE 2026 | How can Labour build an affordable welfare system that supports sick and disabled people? Join us in Liverpool on Monday 28 September at 12:00 with @meghillier.bsky.social, Alan Milburn, @drbenpaxton.bsky.social, @katesummers.bsky.social and @tompope.bsky.social
An image for an IfG event. 

How can Labour build an affordable welfare system that supports sick and disabled people?
Monday 28 September | 12:00–13:00
Speakers:

Dame Meg Hillier MP, Chair of the Treasury Select Committee
Rt Hon Alan Milburn, Chair of the Young People and Work Review
Ben Paxton, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Dr Kate Summers, British Academy Post Doctoral Fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science
This event will be chaired by Thomas Pope, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government. 

This event is in partnership with the London School of Economics and Political Science.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Burnham and Healey have finally acknowledged the scale of the fiscal challenge. Now they need a budget that meets that challenge. It won't be easy, but the timid alternative is worse. My latest for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk . www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/burn...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Burnham and Healey must avoid the budget mistakes of Starmer and Reeves | Institute for Government
The chancellor should take difficult decisions at the budget rather than ducking tough choices.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Interesting piece from @dan-goss.bsky.social for @demos-uk.bsky.social on the need for a DOGE for tax .... www.arguably.uk/p/why-burnha...
arguably.uk
Why Burnham needs a ‘DOGE on tax’
Labour should reset an unfair and inefficient system
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 11/09/2026
How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📺🎧 Watch or listen as @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social discuss Andy Burnham's plans to lead the “biggest rebalancing of power” www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 10/09/2026
Mayors in England are set to get powers to impose tourist taxes. Last year @tompope.bsky.social and @jillongovt.bsky.social argued that Angela Rayner was right to call for mayors to levy tourist taxes, and the Treasury is guilty of control freakery www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Rachel Reeves should allow local tourist taxes | Institute for Government
If mayors use the ‘right to request’ to call for tourist taxes, then the government should say yes.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
New from me and @jillongovt.bsky.social for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk on how Healey should approach tax in his crucial Autumn budget (a subject he was quiet on in his speech today) Key point: set out a strategy and embrace reform. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
How John Healey should approach tax in his first budget | Institute for Government
The 2026 UK budget is fast approaching.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
It's not too late to sign up for this event tomorrow lunch. In person in Manchester if you're there (or online). How Burnham can make his devolution agenda succeed? With @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social
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Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 04/09/2026
EVENT | Andy Burnham, Manchester and No.10 North: How can the PM make his devolution agenda succeed? 📅 Tuesday 8 Sept, 12:30 Join @tompope.bsky.social @lukeraikes.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @drhannahwhite.bsky.social in Manchester www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/andy-b...
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Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Healey and Haigh have asked ministers how they will use procurement as a "strategic lever to deliver innovation and growth in every postcode" (as per @lucyfisher.ft.com). New comment from me on some of the answers departments should give www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/andy...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Five ways departments can help deliver Andy Burnham’s procurement agenda | Institute for Government
The government has asked departments to show how they can support its new procurement reforms.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Just looking through @instituteforgovernment.org.uk #MInistersReflect interview with John Healey and instructive that this is what he picks as his big achievement in govt www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/defaul...
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
There's been an interesting debate about whether mayors could (and should) be able to provide rebates with assigned revenue. This from @jacktshaw.bsky.social is the best summary I've seen of the current legal position jackshaw.substack.com/p/can-and-sh... Some thoughts on the merits 🧵1/12
jackshaw.substack.com
Can — and should — mayors be allowed to offer tax rebates?
debates over tax rebates are fiscal policy, but also the political differences that greater devolution will create — and what they mean for the relationship between Whitehall and strategic authorities
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
But it still points towards priorities for making this tier of government more settled and effective: 1. Better understanding of what tiers of govt do, more public engagement. 2. Effective local accountability and scrutiny 3. Clarity on the role of mayors in public services 12/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
In practice, I suspect few mayors would try to rebate even if they could. Most see economic potential that could be unlocked through delivering joined-up projects across the economic competencies they have. And regional govs tend to focus more long-term too, which helps with investment 11/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
This doesn't mean mayors shouldn't be able torebate necessarily. But I think they are reasons to be cautious. We think it's right that central govt ties its hands through rules to stop is slashing capital for the sugar rush of short-term current spend or tax breaks. Should mayors too? 10/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Another key weakness in our mayoral system right now is local accountability, and even an understanding by the public of what mayors do. Could there be a high risk, again in the short term, that the public see their mayoral rebate but blame central gov for crumbling infrastructure? 9/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
It is much easier, at least in the short-term, to choose to cut capital without anyone noticing than to cut service provision. So I do think this makes it more plausible for some mayors to gain in the short-term from tax cuts 8/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
We know that the benefits of econ. development spend and capital in particular are long-term, and so they are quite easy to cut opportunistically. And it might take some time for voters to notice. This is why we have fiscal rules that distinguish current and capital spend 7/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
One difference between mayors and regional govt in other countries is what they spend money on. Most mayoral spending is on economic development, and lots is capital investment. In other countries, the bulk of spend would be core public services... See e.g. here for GM integrated settlement 6/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Lots of countries allow some variance of tax rates locally (normally both increases and decreases), and on the whole, they are at least as likely to increases taxes to pay for services rather than cut taxes. So is there a reason to worry about allowing that freedom in England? 5/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
So when people say that a benefit of devolution is places competing, I think on tax they're just wrong. Tax competition is a bad thing. That said, the international evidence suggests the theoretical 'race to the bottom' does not tend to happen... 4/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
But we should be wary of tax competition - places lowering tax to make their area more attractive. This is inefficient - we want the tax system to be neutral and not distort decisions, including location. Location decisions should be based on fundamentals - people, infrastructure etc. 3/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
In general, the argument that mayors should be able to make decisions they think will be best for their citizens - and face accountability at the ballot box - is a strong one. If you are committed to the devolution principle you need strong reasons not to permit this kind of policy 2/12
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
There's been an interesting debate about whether mayors could (and should) be able to provide rebates with assigned revenue. This from @jacktshaw.bsky.social is the best summary I've seen of the current legal position jackshaw.substack.com/p/can-and-sh... Some thoughts on the merits 🧵1/12
jackshaw.substack.com
Can — and should — mayors be allowed to offer tax rebates?
debates over tax rebates are fiscal policy, but also the political differences that greater devolution will create — and what they mean for the relationship between Whitehall and strategic authorities
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
I’m not sure… but in the devolution act passed last year the government specified functional competencies for MSAs. So you’d need a rebate scheme that fit within those I think.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
And here is my piece for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk elaborating a bit on these initial reflections www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/andy...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Andy Burnham’s devolution announcement is a strong start on his priority agenda | Institute for Government
Changes on tax, new powers and institutions show Burnham means business.
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Reposted by Thomas Pope
Stuart Hoddinott @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This is a genuinely exciting announcement about Burnham's intention for public service reform There are some potentially massive changes to the way that services are funded and operate A few things that jumped out at me 👇 www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)
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Ben Paxton @drbenpaxton.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Really great it looks like government is going further on devolving employment support. It's a big opportunity to join-up services, tailor support locally, improve engagement and innovate. Flexible funding will be key to this (and should help areas streamline the current patchwork of programmes)
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Follow @matthewfright.bsky.social @shawharriet.bsky.social @stuarthoddinott.bsky.social @akashpaun.bsky.social for more. Plus check out our previous reports - many of which have called for lots of these measures before www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/our-work/top... 11/END
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Devolution to England | Institute for Government
We evaluate devolution to England’s cities and regions, and make the case for a more coherent approach to English subnational government.
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
... the new timetable is for all places to have strategic authorities by 2028. That's fast, especially when local gov reorg is taking up so much time. Even when orgs are set up, building capacity takes time. See this great thread for more thoughts on that bsky.app/profile/shaw... 10/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Finally, a big challenge for govt to overcome is the incomplete map - currently only c.50% of England has a mayor. Streamlining Whitehall will be v hard until this is achieved and devo means central gov can stop doing things entirely... 9/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Linked to this q is who holds mayors to account. Govt proposes a shift to local accounting officers, a move we have recommended. Quietly, this could be the key change to take Whitehall out of mayoral decisions. But this requires developing stronger local accountability, and that will be hard 8/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
A test of radicalism will be how much freedom mayors have over this money. Will there still be Whitehall-set outcomes for what the money can achieve? Or are mayors genuinely free to spend within their competencies based on their priorities? Some mayors promising citizen rebates is an early test 7/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Fiscal devo could be a real gamechanger in terms of giving mayors flexibility to spend money and focus on the long term while rewarding growth-enhancing decisions. But the detail will be bedevilled with trade-offs, e.g. on incentivising growth vs equalisation, and dealing with volatility 6/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The more specific announcements are also aligned with past devo and a coherent conception of mayors' role. Extra skills and transport powers complement existing levers at that level. Aligning public service boundaries is a big deal, and a key pre-requisite to public service join-up locally 5/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Promising fiscal devo to all mayors, and perhaps places without mayors, is a big change from previous approaches of expanding devo in only the most advanced areas and going slower elsewhere. That is a new approach to the balance of risk on too slow vs too fast 4/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Really welcome as well that it is a vision for the state as a whole: a streamlined central government alongside more active mayors. I don't think we've had that clarity from previous admins on this agenda 3/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
First, don't miss the significance of this being a cabinet statement. Getting early buy-in from the start from the whole of govt is key to devo. Resistance from depts and their ministers has hindered in the past, and that resistance tends to grow with time in office 2/
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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Some thoughts on the government's devo announcement today: Overall, this is a great start on the govt's flagship agenda 1/
gov.uk
Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)
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