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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

But strong agree on the need for a tax strategy www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/... Part of the reason we have called for action now is that we think a coherent long-term strategy for public spend would probably mean more public service spend than currently pencilled in 2/2

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

One difference between mayors and regional govt in other countries is what they spend money on. Most mayoral spending is on economic development, and lots is capital investment. In other countries, the bulk of spend would be core public services... See e.g. here for GM integrated settlement 6/12

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

Nice thread James. Do you know which other taxes are driving this £4bn undershoot vs forecast?

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Local government received a relatively good settlement. And this will help to improve services and keep councils afloat. Councils will still be looking for more comprehensive reform in the coming weeks and months 6/7

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

This means most public services should have enough funding to meet demand over the course of the parliament, though given increases in court and probation funding prisons looks like a relative loser. Productivity improvements will be needed to transform performance 3/7

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Overall, govt prioritisation was similar to last Autumn: more money for health, local gov and justice, less for aid and home office. Within day-to-day spend, public services have been relatively protected, leaving big cuts elsewhere. Many depts still below 2010/11 real levels 2/7

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Some top level views on the SR from me and other @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues 1/2

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

And sign up for our on-the-day webinar to get our instant reaction www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/2025-s... 9/9

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

6. What will the SR mean for local government? This is one service area that is struggling with growing demands. We might also see reforms to how local government is funded, including new integrated settlements for mayors and more concrete commitments to simpler funding 7/9

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

4. How will the government allocate capital budgets? Many of the government's missions, like growth and decarbonisation, rely on govt investment. Investment budgets are quite large, but the demands from departments are greater. Where will the govt focus, and will we see a clear strategy? 5/9

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

2. Will the settlements be enough to improve public services? Our work has highlighted problems in many services. Will the govt put enough additional day-to-day spending in to meet demand in struggling areas like health, justice and local govt? 3/9

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

1. Where will the government choose to prioritise? Spending settlements are tight, and this is the point where the govt needs to confront inevitable trade-offs. Will the 'winners' be those that have tended to be best historically - like health - or will the govt prioritise differently? 2/9

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

One dog that didn't bark was on departmental spending. Rumours in advance that a spending squeeze would put unprotected spending in an even tighter spot ahead of the SR, but the outlook for those departments' allocations in June is mostly unchanged 4/5

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

That meant Reeves was on course to miss her main fiscal rule, but only by less than £1bn. We argue that it would have been better to refrain from rushed policy announcements to restore headroom and instead wait until Autumn. But at least there were no tax measures! 3/5

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

First, the growth forecast is mostly unchanged in later years, but the fiscal forecast is worse due to higher gilt yields. Both of these are key risks around the forecast heading into the Autumn - the OBR looks increasingly like an optimistic outlier on growth compared to others 2/5

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

One of the key (downside?) risks around this latest OBR forecast is shown in this chart. The OBR is more optimistic about productivity growth than any other forecaster it includes in its external average Let's hope they're right

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Our definition of 'fiscal fine-tuning' in our report on the fiscal framework last year. Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time) www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

If what this official says is true, then Rachel Reeves had basically a 50% chance of needing to take action this March given her starting headroom is so low... Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year. www.ft.com/content/2f72...

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Furthermore, the biggest budget top-ups in specific departments have almost all come in the last few years, pointing to systematic problems with forecasting spend in areas like asylum and transport 7/8

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

The answer? Yes. Between 2004/05 and 2017/18, HMT almost always managed to keep final spending below the initial budget. That has not happened once since 5/8

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

But even with a big injection this year, spending increases 2021/22 to 2024/25 more or less match the initial plans announced at Spending Review 2021, before inflation eroded those budgets. That big Reeves injection more or less restored the initial Sunak plan 3/8

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

First, the Autumn Budget was a decisive change in the planned path for departmental spending and means big increases this year and next. 2/8

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

If you don't want to read all that, here it is summarised in a couple of sentences

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Those are just initial thoughts... for more detailed reflections, and those of my excellent colleagues, do join our webinar on Wednesday morning www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...

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Thomas Pope @tompope.bsky.social · 23/10/2024

This graphic sets out the sequencing that we think is needed for the plans to be effective

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