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Tomisphere

@tomisphere.bsky.social
181 followers 90 following 940 posts
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Red Sox offseason mantra should be this: it is better to tank in July and dominate in September than it is to dominate in July and tank in September. They need to figure out how to have late-season success if they're going to go anywhere in the playoffs next year.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Andruw Monasterio has been by far the worst hitter in the majors over the last month of the season. And his defense is poor. The Red Sox keeping him on this roster and Romy Gonzalez's very good bat and good 1B defense in AAA/taxi squad is baffling to me.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I'm absolutely disgusted that Monasterio is in at first base and Romy Gonzalez apparently is still on the taxi squad. Monasterio has been awful for over a month. Romy has been tearing up AAA for over a month, and over the long term has been the better major league player. Where's Romy?
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Here's my Red Sox starting 9 for the playoffs: C: Rutschman IF: Durbin, Story, Gonzalez, and Contreras if able (otherwise Sogard at 2B and Gonzalez at 1B) OF/DH: Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony (in the chart, red is above average, blue below)
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Gasper, Jones, and Monasterio all enjoyed multi-week hot streaks at the plate in the second half of 2026, but they've all gone cold now. Romy Gonzalez has had much more consistent production at the plate these past 2 years, and should be preferred over all these guys.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Red Sox best 3 players lately have been Caleb Durbin, Jarren Duran, and Adley Rutchman. Yes, that's right, Jarren Duran. (in the chart, red is above average, blue below) Wilyer Abreu should have Sunday off, for 3 straight days of rest - the kind of rest that's turned his bat hot in the past.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The Red Sox clinch a playoff berth with a win tomorrow. Or with an Astros loss. Or with a Rangers loss. Anyone giving you a more convoluted scenario for this has it wrong. (And that happened a lot yesterday.)
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
A win today gets the Red Sox into the playoffs. They cannot "back in" to the playoffs despite a loss today, because that would only happen if both the Blue Jays and the Rangers lost today, and those two teams are playing each other today.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
What it will take to get the Red Sox into the playoffs.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
They need to make a new statistic in baseball, called the "Hug Out", or HO for short. Here is what the league leaders for that stat in 2026 would look like right now:
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Meanwhile in Worcester today, Kristian Campbell and Romy Gonzalez both go 3-for-4 with a walk; Campbell homered twice, and Romy had a double.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The huge implications of this coming 4-game series between the Red Sox and Yankees. A split means the Red Sox need only gain 2 games on the Yankees over the remaining 25, to take the top wild card spot. Lose just 1 more game than that, and they need to gain 5. Gaining 2 is likely; gaining 5 is not.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I like how the Red Sox third baseman situation has resolved. Right now I'd rather have Caleb Durbin than the other two guys. Yes, they're a bit ahead of Durbin on offense, but recall that Durbin had a 33 wRC+ in late May. Since working with Gradum GSwing on his offensive approach at that time, (1/2)
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
If the Red Sox need an outfield bat soon (because of injury to Yoshida or ineffectiveness of Duran), Kristian Campbell's is looking good right now. For anywhere else, Mickey Gasper is the hot bat, though I think González and Arias are likely to be ready before long.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
On June 24, I made this comment on a Red Seat Radio (YouTube channel) video. Since then, they've won 29 of 35 games for a .829 winning percentage, far exceeding the win rate that I said was out of their reach. They now need only win half of their remaining 50 games to reach that 86 win total.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Romy Gonzalez getting sent to AAA is a good thing for Romy. Why? I believe he's at his best when he plays more often than not, and that wasn't happening for him on the major league roster. I'll be curious to see how he's doing by the end of August.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Red Sox fans, remember Kristian Campbell? Take a look at what he's done in his last 16 games playing corner outfield in AAA. FYI: Jarren Duran has minor league options. The Red Sox could simply swap the two of them.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This year it's different for the Boston Red Sox. They've established a trend of getting hot right before the All Star Game, then coming out of the break ice cold. This year that's completely changed, and that's a great sign for the rest of the season.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The Boston Red Sox are bunting a lot more now, and that would seem to have a lot to do with Chad Tracy becoming interim manager.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Adjustments Caleb Durbin made around Memorial Day transformed him from below ave. to above ave. offensively. His defense stayed excellent before and after. His doubles rate was good before, but overall too few hits. He improved to above ave. rates on every kind of hit after, especially home runs.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
His awful start at the plate worried many Red Sox fans, but since Memorial Day, Caleb Durbin has been everything the Sox could have hoped for. Strong in all phases of the game. Playing above a lot of names that were suggested for the Red Sox to acquire in the offseason.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox has had a habit of having a cold bat through Memorial Day and after the All-Star Break, but a hot one in between. In the first part of this season, he broke that pattern. What will happen the rest of the way?
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Here's a table with a glimpse at how this year is different at the plate for Ceddanne.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The Red Sox gave Caleb Durbin a few days off around Memorial Day weekend to work on his hitting, pressure-free. It pretty clearly paid off. #RedSox
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
For reference, here's their production by position so far.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
We're about 1/4 of the way through the season. There has been a lot of underperforming on the Red Sox so far. But how have the players been trending? Players with the most plate appearances are at the top of this chart. This data is from Fangraphs. My comments are in the thread ...
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Ranger Suarez has been more of the ace for the Red Sox this year than Garrett Crochet. Of their six starts each, half have been duds for both pitchers. In the other half, Suarez has been better, twice going 8 shutout innings.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Looks like an upward trend to me. #RedSox
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Noting that walk rate and runs per game are more volatile stats than chase rate (or its opposite here, "lay off rate"), this chart here does seem to show that for these 2026 Red Sox, more patience = more walks = more runs.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Romy Gonzalez of the Red Sox has always gotten a 200-point boost in his OPS when played regularly (16 or more PA in the previous week, current day included). I'm hoping he gets played regularly this year, so we can see if he gets a .900+ OPS on the year.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
There's talk of platooning Romy Gonzalez with Hamilton or Mayer to fill one infield spot for the Red Sox, but with his MLB-average OPS and wRC+ against righties last year, he's grown beyond the need for platooning. He also hits much better when played regularly. Make Romy a full-timer!
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
In his major league career, Triston Casas of the Red Sox, a left-handed hitter, has hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers. So why do I hear so much talk of the Red Sox platooning him?
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Romy is better than people realize. Many still think he's just a platoon bat, but he was league-average against righties last year, while facing them far more than he ever has. If you adjust his stats to where he has a Red Sox or MLB average ratio of RHP to LHP faced, you get these good numbers.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Here's some other ways in which his numbers have progressed. That's an elite Hard Hit % he achieved in 2025. If he keeps that up and raises his launch angle, he'll be a force at the plate.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Romy Gonzalez made a huge step forward at the plate in 2025. If you shrug off what he did as benefitting by platoon, here's what happens if you scale up his numbers against RHP to have the same ratio to LHP as full-time players have (2.9). That 2025 OPS beats 60% of full time players.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Where will the Red Sox find a good hitter to play alongside Contreras, Story, and Mayer in 2026, now that Bregman is gone? Maybe one of these guys? Ooo, a power surge is likely for that guy with the low launch angle and the very high hard-hit %. Just needs to bring up that launch angle.
The top table shows the players with the top 12 expected wOBA's among the 104 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen, and shortstops who had at least 300 plate appearances in 2025, along with their wOBA, plate appearances, and position played. It shows that Romy Gonzalez of the Red Sox had the ninth best expected wOBA among these 104 players, and third highest among 40 such second basemen.

The bottom table shows the top 12 hard hit percentages among the same 104 players. It shows that Romy Gonzalez had the highest hard hit percentage among this group by a wide margin. However, he also had the lowest average launch angle among these top 12, at only 5.5 degrees. These are conditions that make a huge power surge for Romy Gonzalez a very likely thing in 2026.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Listing Kristian Campbell as the "right now" option at 2B is a huge slap in the face to Romy Gonzalez, who was: - the #2 hitter on the team last year - 2nd highest in wOBA among 2B with over 300 PA, behind only Ketel Marte - better defender & runner than the FA/trade options the Sox are considering
The top table shows the players with the top 12 expected wOBA's among the 104 2nd basemen, 3rd basemen, and shortstops who had at least 300 plate appearances in 2025, along with their wOBA, plate appearances, and position played. It shows that Romy Gonzalez of the Red Sox had the ninth best expected wOBA among these 104 players, and third highest among 40 such second basemen.

The bottom table shows the top 12 hard hit percentages among the same 104 players. It shows that Romy Gonzalez had the highest hard hit percentage among this group by a wide margin. However, he also had the lowest average launch angle among these top 12, at only 5.5 degrees. These are conditions that make a huge power surge for Romy Gonzalez a very likely thing in 2026.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
When you average the 3 WARs for each Red Sox player (bWAR, fWAR, WARP), then scale that to what they would have had, had they had 600 plate appearances, you get this for 2025. Among players with >300 PA, the Red Sox and Cubs had 7 with > 3 WAR p 600PA; the Dodgers 6; Yankees and Blue Jays, 5.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
"Romy Gonzalez has become almost as effective [as Refsnyder] as a platoon lefty masher" Romy being undersold again. He was as effective. And he's also grown beyond the need to be platooned. t.co/KHy6X5pOV1
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Looks like somebody at Yahoo! Sports updated their power rankings well before the Patriots/Ravens game ended last night.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
With their current roster, the Red Sox could field this all-speed lineup for some games in 2026. Every player with above league average speed, most by a lot. I'm not expecting this nor saying it's best. Just dreaming out loud.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
Red Sox fans take note: Kazuma Okamoto won't be better at the plate than Masataka Yoshida has been. He's coming over at the exact same age Yoshida was, & aside from having a bit more power, his overall offense is worse. He'll be an average hitter here. But I hear he's a plus defender, there's that.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
No thank you. Pete Alonso is a Triston Casas clone. Willson Contreras is a Romy Gonzalez clone, but without the good baserunning. The Red Sox don't need a first baseman, they have 2 good options there. The need to figure out 3B and 2B, absolutely.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Two other ways to look at the consistency in passing yards. Standard deviation is the better measure here, as it is resistant to the effects of outliers, while the ratio of lowest to highest is entirely based on outliers. Either way, there's a low tier, a middle tier, and a Drake Maye tier.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
People kept marveling at how Drake Maye could lead the NFL in passing yards without having a 300-yard game yet. It turns out he's remarkably consistent. Of the 10 QBs with at least 10 G and are top 8 in either yd/game or passer rating, he's got the highest low game, and the lowest high game.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Connelly Early needs to work on only one thing this coming offseason and next year: durability. Here are his pitch numbers compared to some teammates. And toward the end, he didn't seem quite ready for even this much load. (Though Bello seemed to wear down, too.)
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Here's part of the reason for Refsnyder, Eaton, and Sogard over Yoshida, Abreu, and Lowe against one of the toughest left-handed pitchers in the game tonight. Also note that Rafaela's numbers have been a lot better over the last 11 days. I like their chances with this lineup.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
This would be why Refsnyder, Eaton, and Sogard over Yoshida, Abreu, and Lowe against one of the toughest left-handed pitchers in the game tonight. Also note that Rafaela's numbers have been a lot better over the last 11 days. I like their chances with this lineup.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Several bats are coming to life at just the right time for the Red Sox. If Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, and Nathaniel Lowe can continue hitting into the postseason like they've been hitting on this road trip, the Red Sox will have a deep and dangerous lineup.
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Tomisphere @tomisphere.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Red Sox fans, let's appreciate what Nate Eaton has done for the Sox this month. With both Anthony and Abreu out, he injected a ton of energy into a tired team, created chaos on the basepaths with his Duran/Hamilton speed, and led the team in AVG, OBP, OPS, wRC+. Thank you, Nate!
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