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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 2h

I'm really going to split the people who have/had young kids to those that haven't.

Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 4h

The odd-squad definitely have their own skills, it's Paw Patrol, for stupid Torys. "Need to claim blackouts are imminent? Just yelp for help, it's Kathryn Porter!" "Need to inflate junk data? David Turver is dressed as Rubble!" "Need to conflate energy & racism? Steve Loftus thinks he's Chase!"

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 4h

Some background to this if you are unaware, with some additional evidence for just how idiotic this whole chain of nonsense is: bsky.app/profile/tomh...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 4h

Not to spoil the surprise, but this is another output from one of Claire Coutinho's 'Red Team' odd-squad members. The Tory party is a serious outfit, don't you know? (note: Claire Coutinho is on maternity leave I believe so not currently energy shadow sec, but she would be, if not)

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 4h

It's always David Turver!

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 17h

This was the situation at the last NESO forum last week:

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 17h

Great British Grid Upgrade - lots of big projects underway, especially in the Scottish borders region to help with constraints...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 17h

With the Dogger Bank(s) now churning out ~1 GW between them I think, would have been a great shout for a record, but constraints are a bit stuck at the moment. May well still happen as it actually gets a bit windier again post that graph in the forecasts.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 17h

Enjoy it. The lesser spotted 'wind plateau' doth approach.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 18h

Ed Zitron just felt the hairs on his neck stand up.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 20h

Is this basically the same thing? Unless you're a MAG7 stock or some sort of AI stock, you're going down...? Is it the K-shaped stock market!? bsky.app/profile/barc...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 21h

And just to close the loop: STS transfers in LNG is definitely a thing. It's not easy (it uses cryogenic hoses to prevent thermal shock, whatever that means, but I bet it's explosive!) - but has already been a feature of getting LNG out the zone: www.reuters.com/business/ene...

reuters.com

Qatari, UAE LNG cargoes transferred via ship-to-ship outside Strait of Hormuz

Three liquefied natural gas cargoes loaded in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have ‌been transferred between ships outside the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks for delivery to India and Japan, acco...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 21h

On the other point, the landing point can't be anywhere - massive competition with offshore wind and interconnectors for space, in terms of being vaguely aligned to onshore transmission infra too. It's one of those ideas that once you critically evaluate it, it falls apart very quickly.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 21h

You're a politician, how do you think public money being spent in Morocco would go down? Do you think offshore engineers in Grimsby might want a word? It also went for a CfD so billpayers could have been on the hook for funding wind in Africa - just mental.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 22h

Narrative point: this is not in comparison to SMRs which also have a very strong claim to being a basket case proposal.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 22h

X-Links was a basket case that wanted UK tax payers to pay for construction of generation in Morocco, and then have land fall in a place in GB that would completely mess up network charges (i.e. basically the region as Hinkley Point C where there is no demand). Thank god someone killed it.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It's an awful lot less closed than it was.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If/when Qatar come back to the market in full, we tip right back into global oversupply, where we were arguably in Q1'26. You would expect major hub pricing, i.e. TTF/NBP, to be ~50% lower than today. Note: Q1'26 had no Golden Pass, no North Field, very little Canadian LNG.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

And don't get me started on the little rings they wear on the little fingers that denote what school they went to. Absolutely mental. "Oh I see you're an old Whitgifitian, do you know Harold Chumleyramsbottom? What a good old boy!"

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

If you gave me £10m I wouldn't even consider private school for my daughter. In my area of work I encounter a lot of privately educated people, and they are by and large idiots (and while some are lovely, it is a breeding ground for sociopaths).

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

And more power to you, but you can see the decision from the other angle can't you? "Maybe I like a trip to the Seychelles for three weeks a year a bit more" I don't begrudge anyone in their 20s and 30s thinking like that to be honest.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Which also means, I have literally no idea how anyone else manages without two full time above average incomes in the home. Full unerring respect to the people that do manage though.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

We did the drop down to four days each (so little one does three days in nursery) but the money ran out after about 12 months - interest rates rose, mortgage up for renewal and we were cooked. Just brutal, and if you looked at our household income on paper you would get a tiny violin out!

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Taff trail next to where I live is like a highway of kids on electric motorcycles and ballys (all going about 30mph too) If a plain clothes copper just sat on a bench for one evening with a stinger, they could have about 10 taken down in an hour.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Oh it's hostile out there. You have to put your life on hold for ~5 years for a house deposit, then save enough for maternity leave, then put your life on hold for 4 years due to insane costs. One child equals a lost decade. My one little worked example below. bsky.app/profile/tomh...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Therefore it's going to be majority appearing as spot for now - probably suits the Qataris as it happens despite the long term objective to get it contracted up. Overall it's going to displace US cargoes from Asia and push more to Europe - TTF will fall, JKM will cool in turn.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

A lot going on in there so likely won't answer your questions that cleanly but a couple of things to note: this is not the existing Qatari capacity, this is the long slated North Field expansion coming online so no force majeure impacts (afaik) and not much of it has been contacted (they have tried)

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Seen a couple of Qatar Energy cargoes leaving recently that went to Bangladesh or Pakistan that basically had the blessing of Iran (media didn't mention any tolls, may have been involved) so guessing there might be some agreements emerging.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

18 month fix, with a £100 exit fee, but largely the exit fee means nothing at 32p/kWh

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

And things, they are a happening in sequence that suggests things are a happening squared: bsky.app/profile/reut...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

No, was looking for early next year. We've just completed an extension in the last year or so which has eaten all savings, and with nursery fees on top, I'm not massively keen to take on debt right now!

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Very achievable ~4 year payback on a 10 kWh battery with some back of an envelope calculations.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Just got the email through for how Octopus is going to up my EV tariff from later in October so off looking around...this supplier is just begging me to get a battery installed too:

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Looking like the path of the developing hurricane is going to the East of most LNG liquefaction plants, which tend to be clustered a bit more towards Houston, although Plaquemines looks to the be the one at risk of a shutdown given it's near New Orleans. Overall, shouldn't be big disruption.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Seems the methodology is to ignore energy efficiency / demand destruction which is a vibe. Or they could just straight compare on a £/ kWh basis and still be wrong, it's up to them.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The point being here is that a price spike is coming - that's true - but saying it is comparable or lie that it is worse that 2022 is not the right thing to be doing.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

And then a fun 'U WOT M8!?' line at end. Reminder, gas price was 3x than *now* (some 13x higher than pre-Ukraine), so if you took a fix at that point it would be ~£5k p.a. for an av. house. So maybe he is referring to the SVT cap which was £2,500 - but one problem, SVT ain't going above £2.1k

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Other strategies that seemingly failed over the summer: 1) Ignore it and hope it goes away 2) Hope even harder it goes away 3) Hope just that little bit harder it goes away 4) Start to think about market reforms, conclude it's too hard

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Given government have done nothing all spring & summer to enable any levers to be pulled, this is probably the only thing available and therefore is the best option by default. That is a ringing endorsement, right there.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Also, the best graphic out there for this topic may be of interest: bsky.app/profile/acjs...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

But my toddler doesn't wake up at the 6am dawn, so swings and roundabouts.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

There are two ways to interpret this: 1) Oh god, more competition for Europe in LNG. 2) US LNG exporters are screwed post 2030 if they can't drum up business & the Chinese will be brutal in these negotiations. No prizes for guessing which option I'm going for. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Venture Global Is in Talks to Sell US LNG to More Chinese Buyers

US liquefied natural gas exporter Venture Global Inc. is in talks to sell the fuel to additional Chinese buyers as the Iran war roils global shipments, spurring China to seek to diversify its sources ...

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

And by the 9th October, the rest of the GB fleet (West coast offshore and onshore) joins the party, the GB has >20GW forecast (pre-constraints) and it's full tilt everywhere else in North Sea offshore / NW Europe too. Shoulder, shoulder, shoulder!

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Clifton Street has a Greggs, not exactly the outer wilds, is it?

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

October is only a week old, but EU gas storage injections running 2-3x the average for this time of year. In 2025 injection season finished next week. I don't think that's happening this year, somehow, although might see a bit of a lull for a few days due to a Gulf of Mexico hurricane.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It contrast to the 'last crisis' (although it's all kind of the same crisis) the answer then was 'crash build renewables' - which has broadly happened. Solar PV build out has been amazing, onshore wind ok, offshore wind has bright spots. Now the answer is within integration and flex.

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Tom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Well, yes. This one in Dublin is doing at 200 MW (built gen sets on site for the purpose): puredc.com/dublin It's always land though, assuming your CCGT is 800 MW to 1 GW in size, your DC development footprint is going to be big!

puredc.com

Dublin (Ballycoolin)

Explore PureDC’s 54MW Dublin campus in Ballycoolin—featuring three data centres, HVO-powered backup, and plans for 90MW expansion.

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