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Tom Adshead

@tomadshead.bsky.social
488 followers 527 following 676 posts

Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics

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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 6h
In which I express my admiration for Dr Mark B Smith's "The Russia Anxiety and how history can resolve it": newkremlinology.substack.com/p/book-revie...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Book Review: “The Russia Anxiety” by Mark B. Smith
How proper history (not pop history) can give you a more nuanced view of Russia’s historical development and more optimism for the future.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This, a thousand times this. Money is being drained out of the UK, not by immigrants, but by foreign investors who are milking students and pensioners and the public purse. Or if anyone's going to do the milking, let it be UK pension funds. I bet the Swedes have laws in place to stop this
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Guehi already playing like a Championship player
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
For the full bants, the King should make Prince Harry the Prince of Piddlington
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If Reform come to power, you can be sure "Bloomberg Bros" will quickly replace the Lanyard Class as the new Enemies of the People
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Literally no one has written to me asking when my next Substack post about the serial Pluribus is coming out, but here it is anyway: tomadshead.substack.com/p/the-paths-...
tomadshead.substack.com
The paths of allegory lead but to the cave
I’m going to take a break from musing about socialist economics to talk about the actual show Pluribus and its allegorical meanings.
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bne IntelliNews @intellinews.com · 02/09/2026
Russian manufacturing PMI slips back to 48.8 contraction as demand weakens: Russia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in August as weaker demand hit new orders and production, while inflationary pressures intensified… Bne IntelliNews #Россия #производство #ПМИ #инфляция #экономика
dlvr.it
Russian manufacturing PMI slips back to 48.8 contraction as demand weakens
Russia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in August as weaker demand hit new orders and production, while inflationary pressures intensified and manufacturers continued to cut jobs, according to the latest S&P Global numbers.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I'm surprised that the furore over the proposed Kanye West concert in St Petersburg isn't getting more attention outside Russia. To me it shows the first signs of a generational split in the Russian elite: newkremlinology.substack.com/p/petersburg...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Petersburg may not be a gateway to this West
In which I say, some words about Kanye
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I theorise about what Ratcliffe might have discussed during his short trip to Moscow: newkremlinology.substack.com/p/ratcliffes...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Ratcliffe’s in Moscow
A flying visit
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newadrian.bsky.social @newadrian.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
We have just had proper rain here for the first time since June - and I have just come to realise that the purpose of Test cricket as a ritual in England is TO MAKE IT RAIN IN THE SUMMER. We have angered the gods with The Hundred and we must return to the old ways.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
My thoughts on Yabloko being dropped from the Duma election. I think it's an attack on Kiriyenko, probably from hawks who want to put their own person in charge of elections, with an eye to the Presidential elections in 2030 (1/n): newkremlinology.substack.com/p/the-apple-...
newkremlinology.substack.com
The Apple has Fallen
Yabloko removed from the Duma elections
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I watched "Wizard of the Kremlin" and I have thoughts: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
The Wizard of the Kremlin
I have THOUGHTS
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
In which I speculate about why Melnichenko spoke out in The Economist, and why now: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Melnichenko's gambit
Why might an oligarch put his head above the parapet?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Me watching footbal tonight:
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
In which I speculate about the messaging and the meta-messaging of an article about Dmitrii Kozak in VChK-OGPU: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Kozak case study
The rise and fall of a trusted executive offers a glimpse behind the curtain
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Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 08/07/2026
A Brit in the semis of Wimbledon, England still in the World Cup and Nigel Farage spending the summer arguing with a bin. Oh this happy breed of men, this little world, This precious stone set in the silver sea
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Alix Mortimer @alixmortimer.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Hapsburg grudge match incoming
Spain v Austria
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Did a quick overview in Substack of the current economic situation in Russia, and the effect of the refinery strikes, plus speculation about peace: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
State Of Play With Ukraine
No pressure to end, but no successes either
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Reposted by Tom Adshead
Joanna Lillis @joannalillis.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Lots of eyes on #Uzbekistan today as it plays #Portugal in the #WorldCup - if you want to learn more about this fascinating country, read my book Silk Mirage! Order here www.bloomsbury.com/uk/silk-mira...
bloomsbury.com
Silk Mirage
Silk Mirage is a compelling portrait of Uzbekistan, a country at the heart of the ancient Silk Road and now the centre of a power struggle between reformers and…
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spooky kororā @davejac.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
My neighbor told me a cat keeps eating his british prime minister so I asked how many PMs he has and he said he just goes to the commons and gets a new PM afterwards so I said it sounds like he's just feeding PMs to a cat and then his daughter started crying.
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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 19/06/2026
This is an embarrassing image for the UK. A self-respecting British fox should be dragging Binface's contents out over the stage
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
There is increasing traffic about the "Party of Adjutants", so expect foreign commentators to pick up on this in 6 months or so: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Guarding against the guards
More about the "Party of Adjutants"
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
In which I take a break from musing about the show Pluribus and write a book review of "Red Plenty" by Francis Spufford, which is tangentially related, I promise. open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com
"Red Plenty" book review
Novelising the un-Novelisable
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
My latest substack posts tries to pull together the various ongoing political scandals in Russia, and it all boils down to a new version of the age-old "conservatives" versus "liberals" (insert your own labels) struggle. open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Signals and meta-Signals
Are there really "cracks in the regime"?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
This looks to me like the NSC went after him after he said bad things about Trump and Israel, and they found something to pin on him - the Trump administration is nothing if not petty
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
WE WON THE LEAGUE AT BOURNEMOUTH WE WON IT AT THE LANE
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Will the GCC shed OPEC, like the EU needs to shed NATO, like a caterpillar shedding its cocoon?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
In which the author ruminates about whether the fantasy world of Pluribus is necessary and sufficient to get central planning to work
open.substack.com
Red Plenty in Pluribus?
Does a world of perfect information finally allow you to build a centrally planned economic utopia?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Мир, Труд, Май
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
open.substack.com/pub/newkreml... Some subscribers asked me to explain what Kremlinology was like in the late Soviet period, so I dredged up some sludge from the dark depths of my unreliable memory
open.substack.com
What is (or was) Kremlinology?
What it's all about
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
More statistical analysis of Presidential meetings open.substack.com/pub/newkreml... Wherein I try to make sense of the fluctuations of public meetings on the Presidential website, while learning more than I wanted to about its technical workings.
open.substack.com
More statistical analysis of Presidential meetings
What the numbers do and don't show
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
In which the author shows the results of his vibe coding of a crawler for the Kremlin website, and discusses how much it costs to get a meeting with Putin open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Statistical Analysis of Putin's meetings
And a call for requests....
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
Really thorough piece of analysis
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Stuart Masters @stuartkmasters.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The prophet speaks for God, and God is always on the side of the powerless, the suffering, the oppressed. Richard Rohr
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Maxut Shadayev, the Minister of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media announced that Deputy Minister Andrey Zarenin will volunteer to go to the front. "Kommersant" say this is the first known case of an official of such a high level volunteering. 1/5 www.kommersant.ru/doc/8554125
kommersant.ru
Замминистра записался добровольцем
Андрей Заренин отправится в зону СВО
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Amy Lawrence @amylawrence.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Rocky. Loved and remembered always. Everyone who knew him adored him. If you didn’t know him I’m able to share a free to read article in his honour. Here are memories from his family and friends to celebrate what made him one of a kind. ❤️ www.nytimes.com/athletic/248...
nytimes.com
David Rocastle: The phenomenal person behind Arsenal’s perfect player (Gift Article)
Twenty years after David's death, his family and friends recall what made him such a special man and how it helped shape him as a player
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
When Robert Harbison suggested that the endpoint of the history of development of human narrative was the prison memoir, I'm pretty sure this is NOT what he had in mind
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
The Remeslo case is a sign of strains inside the elite, but only in the bit that deals with social media. It gets disproportionate attention because it's so visible in the West, but it is important. The scandal could represent a challenge to Alexei Gromov who runs media inside the Kremlin.
open.substack.com
More thoughts about Remeslo
The battlefields for Russia’s social policy are segmented.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
This is an interesting reframing of a question that vexeds me. Why does autocracy always prevail in Russia? I don't believe the "lack of a land border" answer for similar reasons to @birblib.bsky.social . I think path dependency/contingency is a good answer, too. History is one thing after another.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Weighing in on the Remeslo case - this is my Russia-specific substack. I think Remeslo's anti-Putin post is a response to Viktoriya Bonya and intended to force other bloggers to declare their loyalty: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
The Remeslo Case
You can lead a stalking horse to water....
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe... Me continuing to witter on about socialist planning, while ignoring the really fun and interesting things about "Pluribus"
open.substack.com
Seeing Like A Gosplan
Is Soviet planning possible in the world of Pluribus?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
So much truth and wit gathered on one page...
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Why my mind drifted off to a 1937 Economica article while watching Pluribus
open.substack.com
Single-minded Corporations
How a 1930s article on the theory of the firm shows why there is no need for corporations in Pluribus
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Surely there's only one good candidate for interim Supreme Leader?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
x.com/HannaNotte/s... This is a well-laid out argument. What I would add is: (a) Russia goes into these relationships transactionally, finds something that the ME country needs and trades it for whatever Russia needs 1/3
x.com
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Frankly, if this is all Labour can come up with to defeat the Green Party, then they deserve to lose
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Another instalment in my attempt to extract some intellectual value from my binge-watching: open.substack.com/pub/tomadshe...
open.substack.com
Path dependency and revolution
How Pluribus illustrates the magic unrealism of Marx's vision of a revolution
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Public discourse would be greatly improved if more people read Wodehouse in their youth
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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
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