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Tom Adshead

@tomadshead.bsky.social
493 followers 526 following 676 posts

Director of Research at Macro-Advisory Ltd. Eurasian economics and politics

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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
In which I express my admiration for Dr Mark B Smith's "The Russia Anxiety and how history can resolve it": newkremlinology.substack.com/p/book-revie...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Book Review: “The Russia Anxiety” by Mark B. Smith
How proper history (not pop history) can give you a more nuanced view of Russia’s historical development and more optimism for the future.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This, a thousand times this. Money is being drained out of the UK, not by immigrants, but by foreign investors who are milking students and pensioners and the public purse. Or if anyone's going to do the milking, let it be UK pension funds. I bet the Swedes have laws in place to stop this
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Guehi already playing like a Championship player
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I would argue that the YUKOS affair happened because Khodorkovsky aspired to the same level of influence of either Firtash or Akhmetov. And let's not forget that Pinchuk is Kuchma's son-in-law
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
As any fule kno, you should uterly diskard them
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
For the full bants, the King should make Prince Harry the Prince of Piddlington
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Because they seek out hills to die on?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If Reform come to power, you can be sure "Bloomberg Bros" will quickly replace the Lanyard Class as the new Enemies of the People
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Yes, I enjoyed it. It's not my absolute favourite, but for some reason I became obsessed with the economics of a world where everyone thought the same - it links to rational expectations and Arrow's impossibility theorem. And now I'm stuck with it as a theme for my substack.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Literally no one has written to me asking when my next Substack post about the serial Pluribus is coming out, but here it is anyway: tomadshead.substack.com/p/the-paths-...
tomadshead.substack.com
The paths of allegory lead but to the cave
I’m going to take a break from musing about socialist economics to talk about the actual show Pluribus and its allegorical meanings.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
I've always thought that it's a folk memory of this that led Captain Haddock to call any enemy a "bashi-bazouk"
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I just built a program that transcribes 18th century Italian, both text and ms. It’s trivial to extend it to English and I would love some material to test it on!
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I was invited to a private view next week and the person inviting me has just postponed because apparently it will be hellishly crowded
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Reposted by Tom Adshead
bne IntelliNews @intellinews.com · 02/09/2026
Russian manufacturing PMI slips back to 48.8 contraction as demand weakens: Russia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in August as weaker demand hit new orders and production, while inflationary pressures intensified… Bne IntelliNews #Россия #производство #ПМИ #инфляция #экономика
dlvr.it
Russian manufacturing PMI slips back to 48.8 contraction as demand weakens
Russia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in August as weaker demand hit new orders and production, while inflationary pressures intensified and manufacturers continued to cut jobs, according to the latest S&P Global numbers.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
They actually do have multi-lingual announcements on the Gatwick Express, but not on the Elizabeth Line from Heathrow. No idea about the Heathrow Express, but presumably the rich people who use it speak English
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I'm surprised that the furore over the proposed Kanye West concert in St Petersburg isn't getting more attention outside Russia. To me it shows the first signs of a generational split in the Russian elite: newkremlinology.substack.com/p/petersburg...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Petersburg may not be a gateway to this West
In which I say, some words about Kanye
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I theorise about what Ratcliffe might have discussed during his short trip to Moscow: newkremlinology.substack.com/p/ratcliffes...
newkremlinology.substack.com
Ratcliffe’s in Moscow
A flying visit
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Reposted by Tom Adshead
newadrian.bsky.social @newadrian.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
We have just had proper rain here for the first time since June - and I have just come to realise that the purpose of Test cricket as a ritual in England is TO MAKE IT RAIN IN THE SUMMER. We have angered the gods with The Hundred and we must return to the old ways.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
This monkey's gone to Govan
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
So it's an unnecessary show of force, intended to demonstrate that whoever is behind it is willing to spend a lot of political capital to take control. I think it's the adjutants, who want to take over internal politics ahead of the next elections. (3/3)
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Coming in so heavy and so late is a typical silovik move, using the Supreme Court is like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. The case is flimsy, but that in itself is a flex of political power. The Supreme Court doesn't usually hear this sort of case (2/n)
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
My thoughts on Yabloko being dropped from the Duma election. I think it's an attack on Kiriyenko, probably from hawks who want to put their own person in charge of elections, with an eye to the Presidential elections in 2030 (1/n): newkremlinology.substack.com/p/the-apple-...
newkremlinology.substack.com
The Apple has Fallen
Yabloko removed from the Duma elections
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I found bouldering really helped me with my achilles - you're pushing up off your toes a lot, plus it's more fun than the various stepping up exercises that you find on Youtube.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Isn't the root cause that most care homes are owned by PE firms that have no regulation of fees and limited care quality oversight?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I see it like the telecoms buildout in the early 2000s - all that capacity for data, but no one yet knew that YouTube or Netflix or TikTok would be businesses that would use it. There is a crash ongoing, but all of those datacenters will be used to build something impressive that we don't yet see
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
There are projects like Hermes Agent and OpenClaw where you use LLMs to craft little programs on your computer - I got it to do a drop down menu on my Mac for Pomodoro timing because none of the commercial apps did what I wanted.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
*gasp* I was living in Middlesex street from 1991-4, there was Petticoat lane at the weekends, Brick Lane and Spitalfields market was just starting to get going! It was a great area, and I could walk to work.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
And one of those "latters" should be a former
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
My sister and her medical school friends were moving into Islington and Hackney in 1982, which was rough but not too rough (I used to sleep on her floor as a scruffy teenager). People from my year at university who graduated in 1987 got jobs in finance and bought houses in Fulham or Mile End.
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
There was already the yuppies in the late 80s, the loadsamoney characters, and the boom in finance post-Big Bang pushing up house prices. Plus Big Bang brought in Americans to work in finance
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I watched "Wizard of the Kremlin" and I have thoughts: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
The Wizard of the Kremlin
I have THOUGHTS
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I lived on the Botley Road, I had the start of a poem: A Postgraduate foresees his death: "I know that I shall meet my fate Somewhere on the Botley Road"
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
In which I speculate about why Melnichenko spoke out in The Economist, and why now: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Melnichenko's gambit
Why might an oligarch put his head above the parapet?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Was it purged in an overnight coup for showing signs of sanity?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I would love to read a book about the finances of the Tsarist government and the Imperial household and how separate they were. "Bankers and Bolsheviks" is excellent, but I'd love to see something like a series of IMF Article IV reports on pre-1914 Russia
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Is it a metaphor for farmers being driven into the city by climate change and innovation?
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Me watching footbal tonight:
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
It would work its way through into your rent
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
On a par with Chloe Kelly after the Euro finals win, when she broke off the interview to go and sing Sweet Caroline
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
It's definitely her funniest, although it may bring back painful memories for PhD students. I would still take The Poppy War over this or Babel tho
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
It's giving "only guilty people need lawyers" energy
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Make Clacton non-binary again!
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
In which I speculate about the messaging and the meta-messaging of an article about Dmitrii Kozak in VChK-OGPU: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
Kozak case study
The rise and fall of a trusted executive offers a glimpse behind the curtain
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Reposted by Tom Adshead
Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 08/07/2026
A Brit in the semis of Wimbledon, England still in the World Cup and Nigel Farage spending the summer arguing with a bin. Oh this happy breed of men, this little world, This precious stone set in the silver sea
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Kissing baby bins
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Should be a Blue sport
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Reposted by Tom Adshead
Alix Mortimer @alixmortimer.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Hapsburg grudge match incoming
Spain v Austria
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Did a quick overview in Substack of the current economic situation in Russia, and the effect of the refinery strikes, plus speculation about peace: open.substack.com/pub/newkreml...
open.substack.com
State Of Play With Ukraine
No pressure to end, but no successes either
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
I agree with you. He's made a lot of bad decisions, but a fair few of them have paid off, and he's going to be remembered as one of the greatest ever. Sport is entertaining, and predictable recurring success is not that entertaining
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Tom Adshead @tomadshead.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Can you sell your position?
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