iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

My next livestream will be 7pm PT this evening. My continuing focus will be the SoCal #wildfire disasters, as well as the new "extremely critical risk" event tonight into tomorrow plus the long-term outlook. #CAwx #CAfire #PalisadesFire #EatonFIre youtube.com/live/QeI...

youtube.com

Weather and climate office hours: 01/13/2025 topic: Coverage of SoCal wildfires & new wind event - YouTube

The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain on various topics related to extreme weather and c...

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

About the figure: - We split the coast in 6 broad regions - For each we extract the most intense event observed in the 1950-2023 period - We run the same period 2500 times with the Reask model - We count how many of the simulations of the period experience events of that magnitude once, twice…

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

@nicobruneau.bsky.social and I have been scratching our heads with #hurricane Andrew for a while now, and whichever way we look at it, it always seems like a very unlucky occurence. Curious to hear what the industry thinks about likely return period ?

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Reposted by Thomas Loridan

Nico @nicobruneau.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are ! This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Conditioning #hurricane parameter distributions to climate state is super important… otherwise we get stuck with backward looking static views of risk

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Excited to see Nico posting his analysis on here, he consistently produces awesome #hurricane risk graphics:

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

link to Reask TC modeling methodology (in review): egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

egusphere.copernicus.org

Reask UTC: a machine learning modeling framework to generate climate connected tropical cyclone event sets globally

Abstract. In the early 1990s, the insurance industry pioneered the use of risk models to extrapolate Tropical Cyclone (TC) occurrence and severity metrics beyond historical records. These probabilisti...

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

link to pre-season projections: www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...

linkedin.com

Thomas Loridan on LinkedIn: #hurricaneseason2024 #hurricane #syntheticevents #machinelearning…

Current and near-term projections of Atlantic climate conditions are optimal for a very active #hurricaneSeason2024 🤝 Pretty much every group issuing…

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Hurricane seasonal risk projection – before and after: Back in May, our team used Reask #TropicalCyclone model (see links in comments) to highlight projected regions of increased seasonal #hurricanerisk . 6 months later, we can overlay observed activity on top of the our pre-season "heat maps":

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

I think you can also add designer to your bio, such a good looking map:

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Thomas Loridan @tloridan.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Superb work coming out of the Reask drought team - well done @marieshaylor.bsky.social

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