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Nico

@nicobruneau.bsky.social
45 followers 31 following 4 posts

Extreme Weather, Tropical Cyclone, Storm Surge & Waves, General Oceanography, Climate Change #hurricane, #MachineLearning, #NaturalDisaster, #SeaLevelRise, #StormSurge, #waves

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Nico @nicobruneau.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
It's always fascinating to see how sparse our historical records of Major #Hurricane US landfalls are ! This is why we need stochastic event sets to fill these gaps, and get a better picture of the risk ( #NaturalDisaster #climaterisk ).
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Nico @nicobruneau.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
It’s common to assume a Poisson distribution when sampling #tropicalcyclone frequency. However with a long-term average freq view, there is almost no chance to generate Atlantic #hurricane seasons like 2005 or 2020. At Reask, we prefer to condition the Poisson rate based on the state of the climate.
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Nico @nicobruneau.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Couple of exhibits from our seasonal forecast view of NA TC risk (what we released back in May 2024) with observations superimposed. - Hurricane level % differences to long-term - Same but zoomed on the Gulf of Mexico with the NHC 5-day cones about 36h before each landfall - quite some overlaps...
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