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Tim Dowse

@timdowse.bsky.social
943 followers 555 following 1.7K posts

Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.

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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Also worth remembering that quite a lot of 'red tape'/regulation is the result of something going badly wrong, resulting in a public and media outcry that "something must be done". Governments of all parties find it hard not to respond in such cases. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
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David Anderson @bricksilk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Letter printed in The Times today
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Good thread - a useful reminder in the light of some recent events.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Perhaps he was having a bad hair day.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
£9.95 in paperback.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Went to a book launch there last year - Richard Kerbaj's "The Defector".
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
So far as I’m concerned, the BBC can double the licence fee if they promise to put Giles Brandreth on HIGNFY every week.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hmm. I'd be happier if they proposed tying sanctions relief to ceasing illegal occupations, bombarding civilians and threatening European neighbours.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is the sort of breaking news I look for from the BBC. “Quiet scene at football club” Over the past few days a large number of emergency personnel have been basing themselves at Fairford Town Football Club. The scene there this morning is "very quiet", our photographer says.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Latest post considers the ‘forgotten war’ of Sudan. I consider the state of the fighting, the humanitarian crisis, and the logic of partition. This is another example of the difficulty of extracting a good peace from a bad war. (This one is free). samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...?
samf.substack.com
The Sudan War: is there any way out?
Since April 2023 Sudan has been consumed by a vicious war that gets far too little attention in the West.
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Gill Bennett @gillhistory.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is fascinating.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Impressive. I score six, and the only one I've seen in its entirety is The Thick of It. Managed three seasons of Lost - but no more than one season of the other four. Just don't have the time. .
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
PM Carney tells the NYT he has had to consider the risk of US military action against Canada. There’s been much media comment on the insanity of a possible US/Denmark clash over Greenland when both are NATO members. Worth recalling that Canada is also a NATO member. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
nytimes.com
Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S. (Gift Article)
In a wide-ranging interview, Prime Minister Mark Carney described a tense, evolving relationship with President Trump.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
That doesn't necessarily harm him. He plays to the idea that "The whole world is against you - only I can protect you". Ignoring the fact that his actions are the main reason for Israel's present isolation.
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Tom Fletcher @tomfletcherun.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Excellent to see President Ahmad al-Sharaa at #UNGA, having met regularly during my Syria visits. 3.8m Syrians have returned home voluntarily since December. Alongside government we’re focused on clearing mines so more can rebuild their lives safely.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Did anyone ask: “In that case, why doesn’t he?”
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Olena Halushka @halushka.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Worth reminding over and over again: if russia stops fighting, there will be no war; if Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
And no Brits. Not sure what to make of that. Do the Swiss consider us too nice to be placed in either camp, or are we just irrelevant?
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It was indeed a terrific film. I'm ashamed to say that, despite reading a few UK-authored books about the war in the Med, I hadn't really registered the significance of Bir Hakeim. Looking forward to part two. (Don't understand why they invented the Polish plumber-cum-ADC though. As light relief?)
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Surprised to see he has reverted to talking up and promising to copy MAGA policies, given how unpopular Trump is with a large percentage of the UK electorate. I suppose he might win back a few Restore voters, but I suspect he'll put off a larger number of actual or potential ex-Conservatives.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It's a way to evade normal planning permissions/scrutiny, by claiming a national security requirement. As with the ballroom/bunker. Perhaps idc they could take a cue from Admiralty Arch and turn it into a luxury hotel. Which would also be quite on-brand.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Is this real? And if it is, is he serious? I sometimes think he does this stuff just to get attention: the only thing he hates more than negative coverage is no coverage.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
While their news website and flagship weekly 'political' TV talk show both lead with royal kerfuffles, BBC Radio 4 just gave us an hour of excellent international analysis, of the Houthi/Saudi conflict (TWTW) and prospects for a Taiwan crisis ('Currently'). So they can do it when they try!
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Interesting as usual. I've been thinking for a while that these Russian battlefield reversals, albeit small, haven't received enough attention (maybe because Ukraine has stopped trumpeting its plans in advance via social media?) That said, this war has been a history of pendulum swings since 2022.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I'm trusting they'll have got it sorted by November.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
China stands up for the market economy? My irony-meter is under some strain.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
... play to a conclusion, which tended to feature much of Central Europe being left radioactive (so not wholly unrealistic). I don't know if the game was ever actually marketed - I've never seen another copy.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
At university I acquired a prototype game called "Warlord": a sort of cross between Risk and Diplomacy with a Cold War theme. The board covered Europe to the Urals, plus the entire Middle East and North Africa. Nuclear weapons were available. It usually took us all night (and much alcohol) to.. 1/2
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Last week I asked for a sanity check on the alleged extinction threat from AI. This is the best discussion I've seen to date. It's long but witty and accessible (though I don't really get the sporting analogy, since it's not cricket). The final 'play-off' section feels optional if you're in a hurry.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hmm. Not sure "Let us carry on doing all the things we've been doing for the past two years" is quite the message that will get the swing voters back on side.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Cheered me up on the way to the dentist this morning!
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
On the BBC World Service Outside Source programme yesterday afternoon, James Reynolds said their "top story" was the Ed Sheeran business. I did wonder if I'd misheard, but no. Tbf, it didn't lead their actual news bulletin (trumped by US interest rates).
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Olesya Khromeychuk @okhromeychuk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The event marked the opening of ‘Sacred Treasures from Kyiv’: art from the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, on display in the UK for the first time. Do visit the V&A to see the treasures from Kyiv among the many other treasures the museum holds. Images by Anton Tkachenko & Anton Trofimchuk.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
In what way is current Taliban rule "diluted"?
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Fair point: I guess Bluesky users are hardly typical. But that may reinforce my doubts over the impact of political advertising, however extensive. In fact, I wonder at what point the law of diminishing returns sets in.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
What is the evidence that advertising persuades the electorate in the UK? (I know the claims for "Labour Isn't Working" in 1979, but "Demon Eyes" in 1997 backfired.) Unlike in the US, my impression is that Brits tend to be suspicious of politicians boasting about how much money they've got.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Looks like BP. Perhaps he's against fossil fuels.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
That concept's been done (sort of): 'Dharma and Greg'. Not sure if that series ever made it to UK TV.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I would not rule that out.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
... looking to establish an alibi, so if/when the worst happens they can say "Not our fault: we told you so and you let us carry on regardless". Though if they are right there would be noone left to sue them, so why bother? I feel the need for a fresh sanity check from @ciaranm.bsky.social 2/2
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Turned on my radio this morning to be told that Anthropic are yet again warning that what they and others are doing could wipe us all out. Why do they keep issuing this sort of message? Is it just hype to boost investor interest (though I'd have thought it would do the opposite)? Or are they... 1/2
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Something Europeans might usefully bring up the next time they are lectured by a US politician about the virtues of free speech.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I wonder how many people will read this cover and gasp "But he's still in the House of Lords!" Different Redwood.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
It's also very odd that it does this regardless of the type of document. I get it with Acrobat documents that are mostly data - tables or graphs - rather than text. A 'summary' would be both impossible and useless.
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Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 10/09/2026
🎯 by @ellabaron.bsky.social The abuse directed towards RNLI volunteers is horrendous. Solidarity with RNLI volunteers. They are doing incredible work.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
A strong player for a tough job in a tough world - and the first woman to head the Diplomatic Service. Quite a moment.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Many congratulations to @lindycameron.bsky.social on her appointment as the new Permanent Under-Secretary at the FCDO!
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The BBC think so, but you never can tell these days.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Also didn't expect them to take their dress code from P G Wodehouse.
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Tim Dowse @timdowse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Politico also don't say whether buying votes is illegal in the US.
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