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Thomas Juneau

@thomasjuneau.bsky.social
7.5K followers 487 following 796 posts

Professor, GSPIA, University of Ottawa. Middle East (Iran, Yemen), intelligence and national security. Former Defence analyst.

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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Join us on 14 October, 17h, at the University of Ottawa's Centre for International Policy Studies for the launch of former Chief of the Defence Staff Gen Wayne Eyre's book. Details here: www.cips-cepi.ca/event/into-t...
cips-cepi.ca
Into the Breach: Leadership, Service, and Canada’s Place in a Changing World – Centre for International Policy Studies
Canada's leading centre for analysis and debate of international affairs.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My interview with Al Jazeera today on recent developments in Yemen: how the Houthis were able to take the rest of the country's west coast, and what this means for their ability to disrupt Red Sea traffic and for the balance of power in the country. mediaview.aljazeera.com/video/xXeR90...
mediaview.aljazeera.com
intv-Thomas Juneau17-180926
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New article, in open access with Middle East Policy: The Stability-Instability Paradox and the Evolving Balance of Terror in the Middle East (abstract in next post) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The Stability‐Instability Paradox and the Evolving Balance of Terror in the Middle East
In launching its war on Iran, Washington has committed a grave mistake by allowing a weakened Islamic Republic to reconstitute a regional balance of terror. This article shows how the Cold War-era st...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
..., or cybersecurity and democratic resilience. These appointments will begin on July 1, 2027. The application deadline is October 31, 2026. Please share widely with your networks.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
We are looking for candidates whose research explores the relationship between democratic governance and technology, including areas such as artificial intelligence and public decision-making, digital governance, online disinformation, platform regulation, privacy and digital rights...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
We are also seeking an Assistant Professor in Democracy and Technology. uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/uOttaw...
uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
* One open-rank position We welcome candidates working across a broad range of areas in security and defence studies. Candidates with relevant policy experience are particularly encouraged to apply.
uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com
Assistant Professor - Democracy and Technology
Posting Reason: New Position Job Family: Academic Leadership and Faculty Union affiliation: APUO Faculty/Department: Graduate School of Public and International Affairs_FT Campus: Main Campus Date Pos...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
We are hiring - *three* positions! The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa is inviting applications for 2 tenure-track positions in Security and Defence Studies: * One at the rank of Assistant Professor... uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/uOttaw...
uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com
2 Tenured-track faculty positions - Security and Defence Studies
Posting Reason: New Position Job Family: Academic Leadership and Faculty Union affiliation: APUO Faculty/Department: Graduate School of Public and International Affairs_FT Campus: Social Sciences Buil...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"(Yemen's) internationally recognized government is fragmented, it's weak, it's disunited, it's corrupt, and the Houthis have systematically been able to exploit that," he said.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
My interview with AP on what explains Houthi successes: "Half of the story is Iranian support, and this is extremely important ... but there's another half of the story, which is the weakness of their adversaries," ... uk.news.yahoo.com/why-yemen-ho...
uk.news.yahoo.com
Why Yemen’s Houthis have only grown stronger through years of war
At various times over the last decade, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Britain and Israel have carried out punishing air raids on Yemen's Houthi rebels — only to see them gr...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Mon entrevue avec Anne Marie Dussault à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI. On parle des récents développements au Yémen: gains des Houthis sur la côte de la mer Rouge, rôle de l'Iran, pourquoi les États-Unis n'interviennent pas plus, dilemmes saoudiens. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvn_...
youtube.com
Reprise des hostilités au Yémen : entrevue avec Thomas Juneau | 24•60
YouTube video by Radio-Canada Info
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Very nice to see the cover of my forthcoming book, Grand Strategies of Middle East States, co-written with Steven Lobell, Norrin Ripsman and Lawrence Rubin, available with Columbia University Press in March 2027:
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
My interview with Al Jazeera: “The Houthis are not a simple arm of Iranian foreign policy...” he told Al Jazeera. “But Houthi and Iranian interests are largely, if not always fully, aligned. They cooperate closely on the basis of those shared interests.” www.aljazeera.com/news-analysi...
aljazeera.com
Temporary Hormuz solution deferred as Iran-Arab summit falls through
Saudi Arabia asked for the meeting to be postponed, but Tehran says it will continue to seek a regionally backed bill.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Mon entrevue avec le site web de Radio-Canada: profil des Houthis. Leurs relations avec l'Iran, leurs objectifs, leurs capacités militaires, la situation interne au Yémen et les dynamiques en mer Rouge: ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/228...
ici.radio-canada.ca
Les Houthis du Yémen, partenaires de Téhéran
Ce groupe pro-iranien menace de prendre le contrôle du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb, autre passage maritime vital pour l’économie mondiale.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
My interview with France 24 today: how the Houthis took the southern part of Yemen's Red Sea coast this week, why the US has not intervened directly so far, how Iran perceives these events, why Saudi Arabia is severely constrained: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgNy...
youtube.com
Sucker Punch: How the Houthis shocked the Gulf • FRANCE 24 English
YouTube video by FRANCE 24 English
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Join us on 14 October, 17h, at the University of Ottawa's Centre for International Policy Studies for the launch of former Chief of the Defence Staff Gen Wayne Eyre's book Details here: www.cips-cepi.ca/event/into-t...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
That said: "There absolutely is a risk of Iran overplaying its hand," said Juneau, adding the leadership is "very vulnerable domestically" and "popular anger will only mount as economic problems worsen".
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"Iran perceives that it is winning the war and that the US is losing," Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP. "It perceives a window of opportunity to exploit US weakness and vulnerability to reshape the regional order to its benefit". www.france24.com/en/live-news...
france24.com
Defiant Iran seeks to bruise Trump ahead of midterms
Iran is intensifying confrontational actions against the United States in the hope of further raising the cost of the conflict for President Donald Trump less than two months ahead of the US midterm…
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Nice to see the article @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & I wrote with the journal Intelligence and National Security, Five years of Canada’s National Security and Intelligence Review Agency: early successes, growing pains and unforced errors, now out in Issue 41/3: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Five years of Canada’s National Security and Intelligence Review Agency: early successes, growing pains and unforced errors
Canada’s national security review system has been overhauled in recent years. In this article, we assess the evolution of the National Security and Intelligence Review Agency, a pillar of this refo...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
“I mean, it’s absurd” summed what I had to say on this story: the son of a former senior regime official who has been in Canada for years, receiving government contracts, even as he was investigated for helping Iran evade sanctions on its missile program. globalnews.ca/news/1204073...
globalnews.ca
Canada gave contracts to Iran VP’s son while investigating role in regime missile program | Globalnews.ca
The RCMP and Canadian military were among the agencies that hired companies run by Edmonton resident 'Sal Ghafouri,' a Global News investigation has found.
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Reposted by Thomas Juneau
Srdjan Vucetic @srdj.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Grateful to all of the participants - incl. academics, govt, industry & think tank folks - in today's @cepi-cips.bsky.social workshop for Vol 3 of Canadian Defence Policy in Theory & Practice, which I have the privilege of co-editing with @thomasjuneau.bsky.social & @plagasse.bsky.social 😊
CIPS workshop, September 2, 2026
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Lunar eclipse, from Ottawa, 11h45PM:
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I told @ishaantharoor.bsky.social for @newyorker.com that no, Canada will not join the EU. But yes, Trump is pushing Canada closer to Europe. www.newyorker.com/news/global-...
newyorker.com
What If Canada Joined the E.U.?
The idea that Canada could join the E.U. used to be a fringe topic of conversation. Donald Trump’s trade war with the country has pushed it into the mainstream.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Book of the week - Silk Mirage: Through the Looking Glass in Uzbekistan, by @joannalillis.bsky.social. In 2002, I travelled across Central Asia, including Uzbekistan (& it was the focus of my MA thesis), so it was great to dive back into an absolutely fascinating country with this great book.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Riyad tente donc de tenir une ligne étroite : répondre assez fermement pour contenir l’expansion de l’influence iranienne et houthiste, sans pour autant provoquer une escalade qu’elle chercherait ensuite à maîtriser.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
... après des mois de frappes directes iraniennes et la fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz. Si elle ne répond pas, elle risque d’encourager tant l’Iran que les houthistes à continuer ; si elle répond trop fort, elle risque de mettre de l’huile sur deux feux qu’elle cherche à éteindre. » ...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
«L’Arabie saoudite se retrouve dans une situation très difficile, explique Thomas Juneau, spécialiste du Yémen et professeur à l’Ecole supérieure d’affaires publiques et internationales de l’université d’Ottawa (Canada). Elle est sous pression dans le golfe Persique... www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
lemonde.fr
L’Arabie saoudite est passée de la retenue à la riposte face à l’Iran et ses alliés
Longtemps soucieux d’éviter un affrontement direct, Riyad assume désormais ses opérations militaires contre les réseaux soutenus par Téhéran. La multiplication des attaques contre ses infrastructures ...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
And last one, on US policy towards the Houthis, for Survival. The key point is that the Houthis are strong in because of Iran's support, but also because anti-Houthi forces are weak. Any strategy to counter the Houthis needs to strengthen their opposition www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Unpalatable Options: Confronting the Houthis
Attacks by the Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group from northwest Yemen and now its de facto governing authority, pose a significant threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Ade...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
And this one, for @chmenap.bsky.social, where I am an associate fellow, written with my friend Farea Al-Muslimi: www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/new-...
chathamhouse.org
New US attacks on the Houthis will not bring Iran to the negotiating table – but could provoke worse violence
The Houthis are the one member of the Axis of Resistance that grew stronger over the last year. But airstrikes will not deter their attacks on Red Sea shipping or influence Tehran.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
I've also written several short pieces for the Sanaa Center, where I am a non-resident fellow; you can see the list here: sanaacenter.org/member/thoma...
sanaacenter.org
Thomas Juneau - Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
Thomas Juneau is a non-resident research fellow with the Sana'a Center and a professor at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. From 2003 until 2014, he worke...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Before that, my 2016 article with International Affairs, my first academic article on the topic. This one covers basically the evolution of the relationship until the Saudi military intervention of 2015: academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com
Iran's policy towards the Houthis in Yemen: a limited return on a modest investment
Abstract. For years, mounting instability had led many to predict the imminent collapse of Yemen. These forecasts became reality in 2014 as the country spi
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
(for this one or others, if you don't have access, let me know if you want a PDF)
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Before that, how the Saudi military intervention in 2015 had itself reshaped Iran Houthi ties (so basically covering the years after 2015 when Iran's support really ramped up), with Studies in Conflict and Terrorism: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
How War in Yemen Transformed the Iran-Houthi Partnership
The war in Yemen has transformed the Iran-Houthi partnership. Iran has built significant influence in Yemen since 2015, but the Houthis are not a simple arm of its foreign policy: Iran has bandwago...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
(This article was written in 2025 and publilshed right after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026; the article should therefore be read as covering evolving Iran-Houthi ties from 7 October 2023 until February 2026)
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
There is much attention this week on Iran-Houthi ties: the support Iran provides them, the dynamics between the two. Short thread on some of the articles I've written on this: -For Middle East Journal, on how post-October 2023 wars have reshaped their relations: mej.mei.edu/content/79/2...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
« Les Américains ou les Israéliens pourraient se remettre à taper très fort. Or, les houthistes démontrent une certaine fragilité, car leur gouvernement est contesté au Yémen », souligne l’expert canadien.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
« L’objectif, pour l’Iran, est de consolider sa capacité à superviser le détroit d’Ormuz, tandis que les houthistes veulent consolider leur droit de veto sur le passage dans le détroit de Bab Al-Mandab », abonde Thomas Juneau. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
lemonde.fr
Au Yémen, dans le détroit de Bab Al-Mandab, la menace d’un nouveau front entre Iran et Etats-Unis
​Les houthistes, qui avaient annoncé un blocus des ports saoudiens, ont revendiqué, mercredi soir, une attaque en mer Rouge contre deux pétroliers d’Arabie saoudite. L’Iran, comme les houthistes, fait...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
"Tehran’s objective now is to consolidate and institutionalize the new reality that is emerging from the war: that it indefinitely has the ability to block maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz... The Houthis appear to have a similar objective (in the southern Red Sea)."
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
My interview with CBC radio's The Current: very nice to follow one of the best Middle East analysts, @glcarlstrom.bsky.social; Gregg analyzes recent developments in the Gulf & Yemen, & I focus on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (why? why now? with what consequences?). www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...
cbc.ca
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
"Iran and the Houthis now have the ability to block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, and their current actions as well as their intransigence in on-and-off negotiations... show that this is a tremendous source of leverage that neither will abandon."
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
"Les Houthis n'ont même pas besoin de mettre en œuvre le blocus, le simple fait de l'annoncer va avoir un effet dissuasif sur les compagnies maritimes. Et ça, ça va leur donner du poids dans les négociations", souligne Thomas Juneau.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Mon entrevue avec @bfmtv.com: ..."je crois que c'est une erreur de dire que les Houthis font ça sous les ordres de l'Iran", avance le spécialiste du Yémen Thomas Juneau, pour qui les rebelles houthis sont "plus autonomes" que les autres proxys de Téhéran. www.bfmtv.com/internationa...
bfmtv.com
TOUT COMPRENDRE. Les Houthis menacent l'Arabie saoudite d'un blocus maritime, vers une extension de la crise au Moyen-Orient?
Les rebelles Houthis du Yémen ont annoncé cette semaine un blocus maritime contre l'Arabie saoudite, une menace aussitôt suivie de l'attaque de deux pétroliers en mer Rouge. Alors que le détroit d'Orm...
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Mon entrevue au Téléjournal à Radio-Canada hier. On fait un survol des développements au Moyen-Orient: escalade de violence États-Unis/Iran, début du blocus des Houthis en mer Rouge contre l'Arabie saoudite, entente nucléaire États-Unis/Arabie saoudite: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvIZ...
youtube.com
Accord entre les États-Unis et l'Arabie saoudite sur le nucléaire : entrevue avec Thomas Juneau
YouTube video by Radio-Canada Info
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
My op-ed in The Globe and Mail: why do the Houthis threaten to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea? With the US losing the war in the Gulf, the Houthis & Iran perceive a window of opportunity to reshape the rules of the game in Hormuz & the Bab al-Mandab. www.theglobeandmail.com/business/com...
theglobeandmail.com
Opinion: Yet another shipping route gets blocked. Welcome to the new reality
Iran-backed Houthis have threatened to impose a maritime blockade by blocking Bab al-Mandab, through which about 10% of global trade transits daily
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Ma 3e (et dernière) chronique à la radio de Radio-Canada cet été: je parle de l'inévitabilité de l'escalade entre l'Iran et les États-Unis, des objectifs de l'Iran, du rôle des Houthis, et de mon pessimisme face aux perspectives d'une résolution durable. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...
ici.radio-canada.ca
L’escalade dans le conflit entre les États-Unis et l’Iran s’intensifie | OHdio | Radio-Canada
Écoutez l’extrait de l’émission Le 15-18 : L’escalade dans le conflit entre les États-Unis et l’Iran s’intensifie
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
-the global web of deep alliances the US built over decades after 1945 was always one of its key sources of power, and a key part of what made it sustainably more successful than other great powers. Trump is destroying this, and so self-sabotaging US power, at a stunning rate.
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
-Trump thrives in crisis: whether to fuel the carnage narrative that motivates his base, to distract attention from other other probems, or to gain leverage, he simply does not do normal;
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
3 points about Trump's new 50% tariffs on Canada: -it could be a pressure tactic (leverage to extract more concessions from Canada in CUSMA renegotiations) or a tactic to destroy Canadian manufacturing (and attract some of it to the US), or both;
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Thomas Juneau @thomasjuneau.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Ma 2e chronique cet été à Radio-Canada: je parle de la guerre au Yémen, de ses causes, des raisons de l'escalade de violence des derniers jours, de la possibilité que les Houthis reprennent leurs attaques contre le trafic maritime en mer Rouge. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...
ici.radio-canada.ca
La situation au Yémen : Chronique internationale avec Thomas Juneau | OHdio | Radio-Canada
Écoutez l’extrait de l’émission Le 15-18 : La situation au Yémen : Chronique internationale avec Thomas Juneau
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