iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Thomas Flores

Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

FWIW, worth clarifying one thing about the KKK. There have essentially been three "KKKs", though this a shorthand and the when you look close it gets more complicated than that. The first KKK was very different than anything that has existed in any of our lifetimes. It was essentially a large and...

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Reposted by Thomas Flores

The 51st @51st.news · 03/09/2026

Policing in Navy Yard is already out of control, argues Dr. Kevin Beckford — a youth advocate and researcher who lives in the neighborhood. Criminalization is likely to only make things worse, he writes in an opinion piece for The 51st.

51st.news

Opinion: D.C.'s Black teens deserve better than curfews

Policing in Navy Yard is already out of control, and criminalization is likely to only make things worse.

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Reposted by Thomas Flores

Hellrosser @rosserford.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

We’re going to hear about how everyone loved Dolly, and that feels true. But it’s good to remember, and to her credit, that she was attacked for her AIDS activism, her vaccine advocacy, her LGBTQ+ support and even, more recently, for her reading initiatives. She ALWAYS stood firm when it mattered.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I had that fisher price record player in this video. #GenX

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Reposted by Thomas Flores

Hoodlum 🇺🇸 @nothoodlum.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

“You said the 2020 election was rigged by either Venezuela or China. When you called that fella in Georgia pleading for 11,780 votes, was that part of the rigging, or part of the 6-year investigation? Just one more thing, sir, who was president while all this rigging took place?”

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maura quint @mauraquint.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

I respect France's commitment to not working on a holiday.

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Sanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Technically, they’re Remains now.

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Martin Austermuhle @maustermuhle.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

A better message, loads more volunteers, and a competitor’s poorly timed entry into the race. Here’s the story of how @janeese4dc.bsky.social decisively beat @kenyanmcduffie.bsky.social in D.C.’s mayoral primary, in @notus.com: www.notus.org/metro/janees...

notus.org

How Janeese Lewis George Won D.C.'s Mayoral Primary

A message of change, an army of volunteers, and her opponent's missteps all contributed to her victory.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Yes, completely right, and I should have made that clearer. I wish we could see actual ranks. But I think it does tell us a little something, right? That is, the kind of voter who had Jackson rated high tended to then go to Raymond. But again, you're right, and I'm probably overstating the claim.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Jackie won a plurality of Terry's voters (22.6%) -- perhaps not a surprise bc Terry's voters favored constituent servicing and probably didn't like the progressive candidates. Miguel won a plurality of Jackie's voters (29.5%). But Aparna had built such a lead at that point, it didn't matter.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

In Ward 1, Terry Lynch and Jackie Reyes Yanes voters both benefited eventual winner Aparna Raj the least of the available candidates at the time: she only received 15.5% of Terry's and 18.5% of Jackie's voters.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

But we can check in the At-Large. Greg Jackson and Lisa Raymond cross-endorsed. When Jackson was eliminated, 28.1% of his votes went to Raymond, compared with 26.5% that went to eventual winner Owolewa. That's not a big difference.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

One takeaway I have right now is that I don't think the campaign coordination attempts worked very well. We can't check for how the coordination in Ward 1 went bc Rashida Brown and Miguel Trinidade Deramo were both in it at the end.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

First of all, you should check out this graphic by @vegjosh.bsky.social -- bsky.app/profile/vegj.... He's doing this a lot better than I can.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

I'm analyzing the RCV results from electionresults.dcboe.org/election_res... to see how votes transferred among candidates. More to come tomorrow, but a couple of quick observations.

electionresults.dcboe.org

DCBOE Election Results

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

So just looking at the numbers, I think the race is basically over and Aparna will win in a second or third round. We might not know until this weekend, but it's a matter of time.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

For example, if we assume Miguel got 60% of Jackie's voters and 100% of Rashida's and only 15% of voters drop out in each round, he squeaks out a victory. That just doesn't seem likely to me.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

I think it's pretty much over at this point unless there's HUGE turnout; a VERY LARGE % of voters ranked deeply (2, 3, and 4); AND VERY FEW of them ranked Aparna #2 or #3 or #4. Just seems very unlikely.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

In R2 and later, we need to make some assumptions about how many voters ranked multiple candidates and, if they did, how they ranked. If lots of voters only ranked one candidate, it helps Aparna and hurts Miguel. Miguel needs big turnout and LOTS of voters ranking him 2 or 3.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

It's highly unlikely Aparna will win the race in R1. She would need something like 60% of the remaining votes the rest of the way, assuming there are about 18,000 total votes, so just under 5,000 left to count.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Right now, Aparna is at 46.8% of 13,139 votes. But we know her performance has been impressive. bsky.app/profile/vegj...

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Ok, with @janeese4dc.bsky.social the presumptive nominee, I'm digging into #DC #Ward1 results. TLDR: @aparnafordc.bsky.social won't win in the first round, but it's inevitable she'll win in the 2nd round or maybe later. 🧵

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

It's over! @janeese4dc.bsky.social is going to be our mayor! Let's effin' goooooooooooooooo!

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Point is, it's over, barring multiple miracles. Probably in the first round. And if not, soon thereafter.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

In this very unlikely scenario, JLG still wins, though it would take multiple rounds to get there. McDuffie just doesn't have a path to victory, short of (1) massive turnout (2) a miraculous advantage in late-breaking R1 votes; and/or (3) a gigantic advantage in second-round votes and beyond.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Then let's heroically assume 135,000 people voted and McDuffie also wins 60% of R2 and beyond votes as candidates are eliminated, v. only 20% for JLG and 20% for everyone else left. Also that everyone ranked 5 candidates.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

McDuffie's first challenge is to even get into a second round. Remember, JLG only needs to win something like 42-45% of the remaining R1 votes to win outright. That already seems unlikely. But let's heroically imagine that JLG only wins 39.4% of those votes and McDufffie wins half.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

2) The % of the uncounted R1 votes that go to each candidate. McDuffie needs a miracle here: that the late-breaking votes overwhelmingly go his way. 3) The % of R2 and beyond votes that go to each candidate. McDuffie also needs a miracle here: that he overwhelmingly was people's 2nd choice.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

We need to make some assumptions, which we can adjust: 1) Total number of voters (don't know this yet). The lower the number, the more likely JLG wins. McDuffie needs a lot more voters to catch up.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Ok, this morning, I said that it was unlikely that @janeese4dc.bsky.social would even need a second round. did a little more on the numbers, and now I think it's just very unlikely McDuffie can win even in a second round or beyond. 🧵

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Yeah, that's the other part of this. Here's the ward-by-ward tally. McDuffie is only winning in Ward 3 and only by 3 percentage points. You have to assume that the votes that haven't been counted across all 8 wards are just going to swing HARD for McDuffie.

Ward-by-ward tally of the 2026 Dem Primary Mayoral results.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Point is, I think it's over, and probably in the first round (6/6).

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Even if she does, she'd be so close that it's hard to see her lead being reversed in a second or third round. If all she needs is a few thousand more votes, McDuffie would need nearly every voter who ranked Johnson, Solomon, and Orange to have picked him (and not her) second. (5/6)

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Even if you assume that the remaining votes are heavily tilted McDuffie, or tilted against JLG, you would need JLG to seriously underperform in the remaining votes to lose in the first round. (4/6)

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

If turnout is more like 2022, JLG needs 13,390 of the remaining 32,089 votes to win in the first round. That's 42%. If the turnout is more like the AP's prediction, she needs 24,124 of the remaining 53,556 votes to win. That's 45%. (3/6)

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

JLG has 53% of the roughly 95,211 votes counted thus far. McDuffie needs her to be under 50% in the 1st round. In 2022, 127,300 votes were cast in the DC mayoral primary. The AP thinks 64% of the votes have been counted, for about 149,000 total votes. Let's use that as a range. (2/6)

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

I think @portermcconnell.bsky.social is right, and it's most likely @janeese4dc.bsky.social wins in the 1st round. McDuffie just doesn't have enough votes to get a second round. 🧵 (1/6)

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Reposted by Thomas Flores

Janeese4DC @janeese4dc.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

We are not going to get ICE off our streets or protect Home Rule by fearing this President. Threatening DC because you do not like how our residents vote is an attack on democracy itself. The people of DC elect the Mayor of DC. And they want someone who will stand up to Donald Trump.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Kenyan McDuffie: the kind of guy who uses his CM privileges to park on the sidewalk on 14th St so he can campaign. I’m with @cmlewisgeorgew4.bsky.social !!!

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

My sweet girl looking simultaneously relaxed and perturbed. #Caturday

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

The Parable books by Octavia Butler. Mr. Rogers.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Great rundown on the upcoming primary in #DC.

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Thomas Flores @thomasflores.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

Best conversation with a stranger on a plane ever! Didn’t even mind being middle seat! Listened to your album this morning!

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