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jdm

@therealjdm.bsky.social
241 followers 117 following 146 posts

Venture builder. I help startups turn uncertainty into evidence—and evidence into growth. Co-founder @ Traction Lab.

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Reposted by jdm
Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Millions of Americans literally bet their life that RFK Jr, a complete crackpot, knew science better than the CDC and Jonas Salk and just about every living doctor
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Now we know why they tried to swallow him with a sinkhole
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Breaking: Apple follows 7 years after competition
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Old men struggle to sell property
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Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
My tribute to Tim Curry: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
The Absolute Pleasure of Tim Curry
His magic was to be outrageous without being self-conscious.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I would like to have seen Montana
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
"As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.” (Lincoln) Cheers to 250 🥂
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 29/06/2026
NEW: Former Louisiana death row inmate Jimmie “Chris” Duncan, convicted based in part on forensic evidence now widely regarded as junk science, is officially a free man. “I am flooded with relief,” one of his lawyers said.
propublica.org
Louisiana Supreme Court Frees Death Row Prisoner, Calling Evidence Against Him “Scientifically Indefensible”
The decision affirms a lower court’s ruling nullifying Jimmie “Chris” Duncan’s 1998 first-degree murder conviction. Duncan was convicted based in part on forensic evidence that is now widely regarded ...
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Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Ernie Tedeschi
@ernietedesc... •14m
HOW CONVENIENT THAT THE LATE POINTS
FAVORED THE KNICKS.
Matt Egan @MattEganCNN •29m
With 8 minutes left in the game, the Spurs had a huge lead and a 99.5% chance of winning, according to ESPN analytics.
The Knicks had just a 0.5% chance of winni...
SA
62-20
53-29
NY
PROBABILITIES & GAME FLOW
Win Probability
Game Flow
Cover Probability
99.5%
-- SA
0.5%
NY -
X
100
50
100
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 29/04/2026
Today, we’re launching a 5-week effort to sustain Lawfare’s independent analysis. Lawfare is built on one idea: reliable, expert analysis delivered at the pace of news—without a paywall. That only works because of our supporters. Become a $10/month supporter at lawfaremedia.org/support.
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Donate Today

www.lawfaremedia.org/support
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
The greatest opening to any song ever is Janis Joplin's Cry Baby. Come at me bro
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
If a massive firestorm can create a local tornado, then why can't some servers? Checkmate, "scientists"!
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
I was lowkey hoping for Snake Paddington
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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 22/03/2026
The Air War College asked Kori Schake not to give a scheduled lecture on civil-military relations—a subject that she writes is “extremely relevant” in the current political climate. Here’s what she would have said:
bit.ly
The Lecture I Couldn’t Give
Now more than ever, our armed forces need to understand the history of civil-military relations.
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Popehat @kenwhite.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
“Bitch, what?”
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
How would YOU open the Strait of Hormuz? Wrong answers only
media.tenor.com
a man is giving a thumbs up while holding a piece of paper that says therapy .
ALT: a man is giving a thumbs up while holding a piece of paper that says therapy .
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
How I arrived on Bluesky
media.tenor.com
a group of people in a restaurant with the words help is on the way dear written on the bottom
ALT: a group of people in a restaurant with the words help is on the way dear written on the bottom
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Pre-traction founders get rejected by VCs, then spend months trying to fix their pitch. Wrong diagnosis. VCs want retention curves, payback periods, growth rates you don't have yet. You're not unfundable. You're pitching to the wrong room.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
You're getting rejected by VCs. Not because of the idea. Not because of the pitch deck. But because you're pitching to the wrong room. This week's Pivot: how to stop burning time on investors who aren't looking for what you have.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Most startups waste 84% of their runway chasing customers who will never buy. 🧵 👇
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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 13/02/2026
“You look at your son, the glasses you picked out with him, the haircut he chose from the wall at the barber shop, the beating heart you gave him. And you know that you, too, will never recover.” Elizabeth Bruenig maps how a child dies of measles:
bit.ly
This Is How a Child Dies of Measles
When your family becomes a data point in an outbreak
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
media.tenor.com
perhaps today is a good day to die is written above a man
ALT: perhaps today is a good day to die is written above a man
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Reposted by jdm
The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 09/01/2026
MAGA’s defense of Renee Nicole Good’s death sits uncomfortably with the White House’s defense of January 6 rioters, Jonathan Chait argues. theatln.tc/0SMiwqqn
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
In case you missed it, I took a stab on Saturday via "One First" at writing up five of the questions raised by Friday's U.S. military/arrest operation in Venezuela, and the forthcoming criminal prosecution of Nicolás Maduro: www.stevevladeck.com/p/200-five-q...
stevevladeck.com
200. Five Questions About the Maduro Arrest Operation
Friday night's U.S. military operation in Venezuela was a textbook violation of international law. It's also entirely unauthorized by U.S. law, which ought to (but probably won't) matter.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
The responses to this post are unhinged. This military action was unlawful—likely both domestically and internationally. But do people really want to live in a world where journalists sacrifice the lives of helicopter pilots & special ops to stick it to leadership safe at home in DC and FL?
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
Well, shit Thanks @merriam-webster.com
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AkivaMCohen @akivamcohen.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
This has been made available, so for purposes of commenting on Bari Weiss's decision to spike the story, here's a live-post of that segment. It begins with a "you may recall" summary of the deportation to el Salvador. Describes the admin's claim that it could deport the men without due process
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Rick Steves @ricksteves.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
It’s the “season of love and giving”…but this year, doesn’t it seem more like a “season of fear and taking”? Like many of you, I’ve been saddened by the human impact of draconian government budget cuts and how angry many housed Americans are at unhoused Americans. 🧵 1 of 9
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
The irony of Epstein claiming to love Lolita is his incomprehension of the unreliable narrator. Humbert was the villain in his own story—and the only one who didn't know it. So I'm with @gcaw.bsky.social... no way Epstein ever actually read it. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
What Jeffrey Epstein Didn’t Understand About Lolita
Everything.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 20/12/2025
rfk will not rest until your kid is dead wapo.st/4s2l2zn
wapo.st
U.S. plans to stop recommending most childhood vaccines, defer to doctors
The plan, which is not finalized, suggests children get fewer shots and shifts to a model telling parents to consult doctors to make their own vaccine choices.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
I don't know who needs to hear this, but... Pilots aren't about getting feedback. They're about getting commitments.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Got a startup question? Ask me anything! I'll be live on Substack at noon today for our weekly office hours, where we chat startups, traction, fundraising — whatever’s on your mind. Let’s gooooo 🚀 open.substack.com/live-stream/...
open.substack.com
LIVE SOON: Startup AMA w/ Cam & JDM
Starting Nov 4 at 3:00 PM EST
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Reposted by jdm
Popehat @kenwhite.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
I’m more used to saying this to people on the Left than people on the Right, but, “hate speech” is not an exception to the First Amendment. “Hate speech” is protected by the First Amendment unless it falls into a traditional established exception.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
I finally found a nice little perk of social anxiety! Completely unrelated, let me read this message 7 more times before I hit Post
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
If your test can't fail, it can't teach you anything. The usual suspects: - Counting likes & shares like revenue - Measuring "interest" before intent - Asking leading questions A real test must unambiguously succeed or fail. Everything else? Just another rerun of Validation Theatre.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
I just put Tajín on dried mango. I don't know where this has been all my life. And you're welcome.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
Your viral post isn't product-market fit — it's just one hit. And one hit doesn't make you the Beatles. New podcast episode breaks down why scalability requires repeatability, which requires predictability. Spoiler: Most "validation" is expensive theater. Listen to "Zero to Traction" now
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
If your “traction” slide says, “Seven people said this was interesting,” I’m already out. Investors don’t want Canva art projects, they want proof your startup isn’t cosplay. On this week's Zero to Traction: less Canva, more data.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Another benefit of traction science: You stop falling in love with bad ideas Because evidence kills delusion faster than anything else.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Most startup ideas are worthless. Whether it takes you 2 days or 2 years to find out... doesn't change the outcome. Prove yourself wrong today, and you get 2 years of your life back. Why wait?
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Startup pro tip: Test your riskiest assumption first. Don't waste time building "cool" features hoping customers want them. Instead, validate the core problem exists — with enough severity and urgency to motivate customers to buy. Life is short. Don’t waste it building something no one wants.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
You can find traction crazy fast if you just… • Talk to 5 customers this week • Test your riskiest assumption first • Measure what actually matters • Iterate based on evidence If you do? Congrats. You just validated smarter than 90% of founders.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
3 must-have startup skills every founder should master: • Asking good questions • Creating hypothesis • Interpreting data
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
5 "hacks" for better startup experiments: • Test your riskiest assumption first • Talk to customers before building • Measure what matters, not feels good • Fail fast, learn faster • Iterate based on evidence, not ego Turns out, the only real experiment hacks… …aren't really hacks at all.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Feeling stuck? Stop planning and start testing. No more market research paralysis No more perfect pitch deck obsession No more "just one more feature" Just you, your hypothesis, and your willingness to be wrong. It works every time.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Your pitch deck is a crime scene. The fonts? Beautiful. The gradient? Tasteful. The story? Dead on arrival. 5 slides I see over and over again that should be charged with killing investor interest — and how to fix them. 🔎 Bring gloves: tractionthinking.substack.com/p/your-pitch...
tractionthinking.substack.com
Your pitch deck is a crime scene.
Here are 5 pitch deck slides that should be charged with killing investor interest.
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jdm @therealjdm.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Startup Office Hours — ask us anything! We're doing another venture science #ama over on LinkedIn. Bring your questions, snark, hot takes, and a cup of coffee... You're gonna need it. Noon PDT on Fridays. jdm.bio/calendar
jdm.bio
I’m JDM, and I’m a venture scientist — I turn assumptions into data, and data into traction
I’m a venture scientist — I turn assumptions into data, and data into traction.
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Reposted by jdm
Politico @politico.com · 16/07/2025
COLUMN: Why is the DOJ botching the Epstein saga? “The possibilities range from bad to worse” — especially for what they suggest about the country’s legal leadership, writes former federal prosecutor Ankush Khardori.
politico.com
3 Scenarios That Explain the Epstein Debacle
All reflect poorly on the Department of Justice.
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Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
HAPPENING NOW: Lawyers for Kilmar Abrego Garcia are back in court following yesterday’s wild evidentiary hearing. The parties have re-convened for oral argument on Abrego’s motion to be returned to Maryland if he’s released from criminal custody in TN next week. Follow along ⬇️ 🧵
courthouse in greenbelt
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
#SCOTUS announces that tomorrow is the *last* day on which it will hand down decisions in cases argued this term. That means birthright citizenship, non-delegation, age verification for porn websites, and three other major rulings will all come down in quick succession starting tomorrow at 10 ET.
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