Sign in

The Progress Report

@theprogressreport.co.nz
562 followers 278 following 460 posts

If you're interested in NZ politics, polling and elections you're in the right place. #nzpol www.theprogressreport.co.nz

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by The Progress Report
Julie Fairey (she/her) @juliefairey.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Main reason for changing voting method was actually the insecurity of postal. As shown by proven electoral fraud in Papatoetoe that resulted in a do over, and currently alleged & under investigation in Manurewa too. I hope that booth will increase turnout too, but integrity was the winner today.
1142
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
And it's a very good reason to do it, and a very strong argument against calls for online voting!
130
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Booth voting will cost Auckland $31–40m, compared with about $16m for postal, and the evidence that it lifts turnout is thin. If we care about turnout, the conversation needs to be in Parliament, not the council chamber. theprogressreport.co.nz/post/435/
theprogressreport.co.nz
Booths won't fix Auckland's turnout problem. Compulsory voting would. - The Progress Report
011
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Across the Tasman: councils in NSW, where voting is compulsory, get 80%+ turnout. In WA, where it's voluntary, turnout is around 30%, and WA's minister is now looking at making it compulsory. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-18/compulsory-voting-flagged-for-wa-local-government-election/105901804
abc.net.au
West Australians face compulsory council election voting amid low turnout
Voting in council elections could become mandatory in Western Australia if the turnout for this weekend's poll continues to plummet, the local government minister warns.
100
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
It's not just two cases. A study of 1,400+ elections in 116 countries found enforced compulsory voting lifts turnout by 15–18 points on average, and up to 27 points where fines are actually collected. tinyurl.com/ycpt2nyu
tinyurl.com
Is compulsory voting a solution to low and declining turnout? Cross-national evidence since 1945 | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Is compulsory voting a solution to low and declining turnout? Cross-national evidence since 1945 - Volume 12 Issue 1
100
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Exhibit B: Flanders did the reverse. It scrapped compulsory local voting in 2024 and turnout fell from 92% to 63%. In the big cities, 4 in 10 stayed home, and young people dropped off most. www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2024/10/14/5-takeaways-from-sundays-local-elections/
vrt.be
5 takeaways from Sunday’s local elections | VRT NWS: news
Across the country people went to the polls yesterday to elect new local and provincial councils. These were the first elections in Flanders without any mandatory attendance at polling stations: peopl...
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Exhibit A: Tasmania. Council elections stayed postal but became compulsory in 2022. Turnout went from about 59% to 85%, up 26 points, with the same postal ballot. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ta...
en.wikipedia.org
2022 Tasmanian local elections - Wikipedia
120
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Auckland Council has voted to bring back booth voting in 2028 to lift turnout. 2025 turnout was 29%, the lowest since the supercity began. But the international evidence says the voting method is a sideshow. The real lever is compulsory voting. 🧵 #nzpol
32010
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
I suspect that just like the last two elections Te Ao Māori News will have commissioned polls in the other Māori electorates - so I guess we'll have a good idea fairly soon! Very glad they do this.
010
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Full Te Tai Tonga poll results here: www.teaonews.co.nz/2026/09/29/w...
teaonews.co.nz
Whakaata Māori-Curia poll reveals major shift in Te Tai Tonga race
A Te Tai Tonga poll puts Labour ahead, while Tākuta Ferris faces mixed approval ratings and voters prioritise honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
100
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 29/09/2026
Obviously the Māori electorates are very different to the general electorates, but I feel the fear of overhangs may be overblown. It's looking more and more like Labour are going to pick up a big haul of electorates, likely including many National-held ones no one is looking at. #nzpol
391
Reposted by The Progress Report
henry cooke @henrycooke.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Labour won campaign launch day with some pretty simple political wisdom: - Don’t hire a room you can’t fill - Use your time in the spotlight to offer voters something My piece on yday: www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...
thepost.co.nz
Labour outshines National in campaign launch battle with high-energy event
ANALYSIS: Labour won in a walk by over-stuffing a smaller room than National’s.
14817
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 28/09/2026
Oh and one last thing: I've also uploaded today's TVNZ-Verian poll so you can play around with those results!
000
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 28/09/2026
It's pretty complex - fingers crossed there are no bugs, but please let me know if anything seems off. As always, if you disagree with any of the electorate predictions you can always override the electorate outcomes yourself.
100
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 28/09/2026
Some big caveats with this: it just applies a scaled uniform swing to each electorate result, but only for Labour/National contests. Seats that ACT/Green won and all the Māori seats are excluded as party vote result just isn't a good enough predictor.
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 28/09/2026
Big (and often requested!) new feature for The Progress Report has just dropped, you can now automatically estimate which seats will change hands in the MMP Calculator! theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol
1112
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 25/09/2026
And you can also search the site to find any candidate, and if they're running Meta or Google ads, click through to see them, eg: theprogressreport.co.nz/candidates/1...
theprogressreport.co.nz
Jessica Rowe - The Progress Report
Jessica Rowe is a candidate in New Zealand's 2026 general election. See their party, electorate, social media links, and recent news coverage.
000
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 25/09/2026
I found this via The Progress Report Ad Tracker, you can take a look here: theprogressreport.co.nz/ad-tracker/
theprogressreport.co.nz
NZ Political Ad Tracker - The Progress Report
Track and analyse New Zealand political advertising spend across Meta and Google platforms with interactive filters for parties, advertisers, platforms, and electorates.
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 25/09/2026
Jessica Rowe, National's new candidate for Kaipara ki Mahurangai, has launched a large & reasonably sophisticated social media paid ad campaign in the last 24 hours. She currently has 11 ads live, which appear to be targeting different parts of the electorate. www.facebook.com/ads/library/... #nzpol
facebook.com
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 23/09/2026
Please enjoy this statement and questionnaire for a candidate for the upcoming Bendigo City Council By-election.
143
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 22/09/2026
It looks like Ali Dahche, ACT's candidate for Botany in the coming election, still hasn't filed his expense and donations return for his unsuccessful council campaign last year voteauckland.co.nz/en/past-loca... #nzpol
voteauckland.co.nz
1102
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 22/09/2026
They're a campaigning organisation, the more they raise the more they can spend pushing out their message.
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 22/09/2026
And if you want to keep an eye on every email they put out to their list, bookmark this: theprogressreport.co.nz/emails/?part...
theprogressreport.co.nz
NZ Political Email Archive - The Progress Report
Explore political newsletters from New Zealand parties. Updated automatically and expanding historically.
152
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 22/09/2026
If you want to have a look at Jordan Williams' email to the Taxpayer's Union list without subscribing, I have a copy here: theprogressreport.co.nz/emails/5487/ #nzpol #dirtywork
theprogressreport.co.nz
42210
Reposted by The Progress Report
Sascha Stronach🏳️‍⚧️, The Sunforge out now @understatesmen.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
okay this is actually huge. I've complained a lot about Labour being limp, so I think it's important to pump them up when they're actually making shit happen www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
rnz.co.nz
Labour proposes splitting Foodstuffs and Woolworths from their wholesale arms
Labour would force Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run their wholesale operations independently from their retail stores, if elected in November.
711735
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 20/09/2026
National had three years to build a stronger start for our youngest learners: instead it cut funding, dropped its own commitments, and let standards slide. And now wants credit for a policy about iPads.
0125
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 20/09/2026
While it rolls out lines about iPads, National's actual record is scrapping the 20 hours free ECE for two-year-olds it had already promised, cutting support funding by nearly 40%, and lifting the core subsidy just 2% in a year inflation ran at 4. #nzpol www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...
thepost.co.nz
National wants screen use ban in early childhood education, limit in primary school
Erica Stanford is also keen to introduce a school readiness check in ECE.
12717
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 19/09/2026
Including a break down of spend per vote!
010
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 19/09/2026
If you click on See Full Results for a contest where I've got all the donations and expenses in, you can now see a detailed breakdown of them.
100
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 19/09/2026
New feature for The Progress Report: campaign finances! I've now got donation and expenses data for the 2023 and 2020 general elections and will gradually be backfilling with older and local elections. #nzpol
153
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 14/09/2026
I've uploaded the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy post to The Progress Report, so you can use the MMP Calculator to figure out exactly who would get into Parliament on these numbers. theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol
theprogressreport.co.nz
031
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 13/09/2026
Yeah it's a lot of information to display on small screens, have tried a few other ways of doing it but still don't think I've cracked it
000
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 13/09/2026
I've updated the ACT Party list in The Progress Report, so you can see who will get into Parliament via my MMP Calculator: theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol
theprogressreport.co.nz
176
Reposted by The Progress Report
henry cooke @henrycooke.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
NEW: 15k pensioners had their winter energy payment wrongly suspended this winter thanks to an error in a bill rushed through the House under urgency last year. www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...
thepost.co.nz
Winter Energy Payments removed from 15k pensioners in rushed law blunder
Thousands of pensioners and veterans lost their Winter Energy Payment this winter after an error in a law passed under urgency last year, The Post can reveal today.
84425
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 14/08/2026
Details from The Post: www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...
thepost.co.nz
Election 2026: Another poll puts Opportunity in kingmaker position
The poll obtained by The Post from Anacta/Talbot Mills, had Opportunity on 5.2%, crossing the threshold to get into the house.
000
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 14/08/2026
I've uploaded the latest Talbot Mills poll, so you can use my MMP Calculator to see exactly who would get into Parliament on those numbers. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat...
130
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 12/08/2026
Well that was fun. So when's the next National Party Leadership confidence vote?
183
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 11/08/2026
FWIW the highest I've seen Erica Stanford in a preferred PM poll was 1.4% in Reid Research's March 2026 poll, has been trending down since then. #nzpol theprogressreport.co.nz/pm-poll-grap...
theprogressreport.co.nz
071
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 11/08/2026
I stand by my statement.
040
Reposted by The Progress Report
laragreaves.bsky.social @laragreaves.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
We made an app! There is fairly widespread concern that turnout and enrolment will be low this election, so we made an app to help make enrolment and turnout data more accessible for communities. All data are drawn from the NZ Electoral Commission's website. turnout.inzight.co.nz
812377
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 07/08/2026
btw is this what the makeup of Parliament looks like to me on based on Curia's results... (feel free to explore for yourself, here: theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat...)
200
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 07/08/2026
The Taxpayer's Union own numbers show Labour gaining 2 seats - I get basically the same numbers. Not sure how RNZ could get that.
120
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
Oh so they're quite literally just selling your data.
010
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
Interesting, thanks!
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
Just did the whichparty.nz quiz - got "Social Democrat", 90% Labour Party which I think is probably pretty spot on. Cool site but only thing I don't like is they don't disclose who is behind it or if anything is being done with the data they're collecting.
140
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
Lastly, I'm genuinely surprised they're not active here on BlueSky. I'd imagine the audience here might be at least somewhat receptive to their message.
010
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
They've also dropped two candidates entirely: Kent Duston (Epsom) and Mathew Phillips (Taieri). I hope neither are for any unfortunate personal circumstances.
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
In doing so I noticed a few things. Firstly, they've got two electorate candidates who are not on their party list for some reason. They are Simon DellaBarca (Whangārei) and Cindie Uddstrom (West Coast-Tasman).
110
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 01/08/2026
I've uploaded the full Opportunity Party (formerly TOP) 2026 party list to The Progress Report, so you can see who they will get into Parliament should they cross the 5% threshold or win an electorate. Explore for yourself with my MMP Calculator here: theprogressreport.co.nz/mmp-calculat... #nzpol
theprogressreport.co.nz
120
The Progress Report @theprogressreport.co.nz · 22/07/2026
Where will Stuart Nash bounce to next? NewZeal?
000