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Reposted by Ryan Blake

In the 25 most similar batted balls in the Statcast era: 24 were foul balls. Plus the one to Ty France

”Let‘s just model projected distance” They did this in the Home Run Derby in 2025 and I’m not sure anybody found this a satisfying resolution.

A graphic on ESPN showing Cal Raleigh beating Brent Rooker in the 2025 home run derby on a distance measured to 10 decimals.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 13h

The Brewers reaction seems to be “nuh uh wasn’t gonna be a homer” when it should be “nanana boo boo that’s our stadium, those are our ground rules, win more games if you don’t want to play there.“

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 21h

Should add 451 total batted balls at those EV and LA, so making it 340 feet is already ~10% and a homer <1%, before considering whether that would have even wound up fair. But... it happens sometimes!

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 22h

I find an even 50 batted balls in the Statcast Era with: - 103-107 mph EV - 46-52 degree of launch - 340 feet projected distance Of those 11 homers, including three this year. Here's another in The Trop from Christian Encarnacion-Strand (105.7 mph, 47 degrees, 359 feet).

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 22h

Heh, first thing I though of was this Joc Pederson home run from July 105.3 mph 48 degrees 347 feet

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Wilson Criscione @wilsonc.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

How Rob Curley’s plan to make the Spokesman-Review ‘The People’s Paper’ ended in a newsroom revolt (Reported in collaboration with RANGE) www.investigatewest.org/rob-curley-s...

investigatewest.org

How Rob Curley lost the Spokesman-Review newsroom

Newsroom staffers tell InvestigateWest and RANGE that concerns about Curley’s leadership festered until his August suspension — weeks before the paper was set to transfer to his nonprofit

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 02/10/2026

I have gone from steeling myself against the season ahead to being fully convinced the Kraken are top 3 in the Pac in the span of like 12 hours.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 02/10/2026

Well, I don't know what's ahead, but absolutely throttling the Flames in Calgary to open the season was enjoyable. Just about everyone on the score sheet, solid defense, great goaltending, great special teams even. Can't remember the last time the Kraken looked that good top to bottom.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 02/10/2026

My thoughts on the Kraken are I'm excited again because I think they're going to be appropriately bad instead of frustratingly mid and we'll get to watch some actual development this year. I'm also nervous because "appropriately bad" is, you know, still bad.

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Davy Jones’ Locker Room @davyjoneslr.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

For those who care about such things, we have disabled all ads on Davy Jones’ Locker Room’s website at DavyJonesLockerRoom.com Please enjoy an ad-free experience from now on.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 01/10/2026

The league drops like 5 points on K% from 1 to 3 so that's relatively solid. Gray himself lost 9 points last year.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 01/10/2026

Much appreciated, thanks for reading!

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Urbmonger @crowshair.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Great summary of the season from @swingsandtakes.com - both highly readable and solidly backed by data.

lookoutlanding.com

The Beautiful and Dan’d

Goodnight, and good luck

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 30/09/2026

This is roughly how I read the “we‘ve come to realize defense matters“ portion of the postseason interviews

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 30/09/2026

I think the sum total is encouraging. And ”slashers” are far and away my favorite archetype so he gets a big plus from me. I think it’s just the classic debate of approach vs discipline vs eye vs selection vs whatever. (Is a hot dog a sandwich, shove me in a locker, etc)

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 30/09/2026

The Mariners won 14 fewer games in 2026 than they did in 2025. Some nice math here: - Cal and Julio worth 10.2 fewer wins - Rest of roster worth 1.5 fewer wins - Pythag luck worth 1 fewer win So we can reasonably account for 12.7 of the 14 wins?

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 30/09/2026

It's possible Arroyo is better at hitting shadow pitches than others, but for the average batter it's almost always a losing proposition. Not to say it's a bad profile overall, just a matter of framing. I'd group Arroyo as a slasher from his 40 PA debut.

tangotiger.com

Tangotiger Blog

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 30/09/2026

Ran the highest z-swing rate by four points: - Highest heart swing rate (nice) - Third highest shadow swing rate (yuck) - Third lowest chase+waste swing rate (nice) I'd call Arroyo hyper aggressive more than disciplined/selective, which tracks with the minors.

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Will Harris @sandwichpick.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

No one: GMs of teams that won 72 games hosting a press conference no one asked for:

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

Next year... The math looks tough, especially after losing almost 20% of their '26 production to free agency. They need a lot to go right just to get back to being wild card contenders.

That makes it tricky to know exactly where this team stands going forward. The Mariners in 2026 posted about 30.1 fWAR (21st in the majors). If we take away Arozarena and assume level performance everywhere else, that’s a baseline of 25.5 WAR in 2027. To get back to 40 WAR, or merely the 10th best team in the majors in most seasons, the Mariners will need to add about 15 WAR this offseason from internal improvements and external additions.

Even if we think Cal and Julio will double their production from 2026 and return to being premier players at their positions, that still leaves a 10-WAR gulf between the current roster and the bare minimum for contention. We’re talking more “yes” than “no” on big steps forward for Kade Anderson, Colt Emerson, Cole Young, and Lazaro Montes; bounce backs for Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan; a third baseman that doesn’t yet exist in the organization; reversion to 2023 or 2024 production for multiple members of the rotation; and an entirely rebuilt bullpen. That’s a lot to go right, before considering what can (and will) go wrong. Again, that’s just to get back to mere Wild Card contenders. A bad injury, an underperformance, a failed development, a frowning pythagorus, and the Mariners are out of the playoff picture, firmly trending into a rebuild after six years of a 10-year plan.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

That makes it hard to say anything about the pitching. I truly don't know what happened. It was arguably the best in the majors in the first half. It was definitively the worst in the majors in the second half. They ultimately finished about average, even if it never felt anything close to average.

A plot showing the Mariners six month rolling pitcher WAR. They were the best in the majors through the first three months, and the worst in the majors in the last three months.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

Unfortunately, whatever competence existed at the plate was erased in the field. This wasn't too surprising, as the team was awful defensively in 2025 and made few changes. But they lost an additional -24 fielding runs from Cal and Julio this year, pushing them to a historic new low.

A table showing the Mariners Fielding Run Value split by position.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

The rest of the offense was... OK-ish. There were several bad performances, but there were a few great performances as well. Randy Arozarena specifically had one of the best seasons in team history. The non-Cal, non-Julio lineup was about as good as 2025 (and often better).

A plot showing the Mariners rolling wOBA split by Cal and Julio versus the rest of the lineup.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

The premise of this roster was simple: Cal and Julio were the best duo in the majors. They are the reason the Mariners are relevant in this era at all. Unfortunately, both were hurt in 2026. Their missing performance represents most of the difference in WAR from 2025, though every group fell short.

A plot showing Mariners WAR split by group and timing. Most of the Mariners missing WAR in 2026 comes from Cal and Julio, though every group underperformed expectations.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

The Mariners roster took a small but notable step forward in the offseason and began 2026 with their best ever projections. But sky high expectations had more to do with the lack of competition than a new "win now" ultimatum. This was merely year five of a 10-year plan, according to Jerry Dipoto.

A plot showing projected vs actual WAR for the Mariners from 2022 to 2026. 2026 represented the most projected WAR but least actual WAR, in what's largely been a consistent era otherwise.

Still, it was clear the Mariners weren’t quite “going for it” in 2026. They entered the season with question marks in the lineup, the bullpen, and the back-half of the 40-man, still favoring a long-term outlook over the passé present. The team didn’t see their narrow World Series miss in 2025 as an ultimatum to get markedly better, but as proof of concept for their “going for good” strategy. Dipoto said as much in December:

“And while we’ll continue to evolve our model, mold our model in certain places… I don’t think we’re going to bust it and start over again. We like the model. And right now we’re starting to see some tangible results of what that looks like.”
In other words, this was never meant to be “the year,” more than it was simply year five of a 10-year plan. Elevated expectations were a sign that this plan was working.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

tl;dr thread because this is far too many words for such a bad team

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026

The 2026 Mariners were supposed to be good, they were bad, and Dan Wilson was their feckless manager. But the roster he was saddled with proved disturbingly thin. My season obit, for @lookoutlanding.bsky.social

lookoutlanding.com

The Beautiful and Dan’d

Goodnight, and good luck

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 28/09/2026

The Mariners have 68.6 pitching bWAR since 2022. That's 18th in the majors.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 28/09/2026

The Mariners have 77.5 pitching fWAR since 2022. That's 13th in the majors. A bit less than the Twins in 12th, and a bit more than the Orioles in 14th.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 28/09/2026

Dodgers over Guardians in the World Series

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Lookout Landing @lookoutlanding.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Alert the NY media because Mariners fans are Max Freed now www.lookoutlanding.com/seattle-mari...

lookoutlanding.com

Seattle Mariners eliminated from 2026 playoff contention

The math has ceased, the sails have fallen.

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Lookout Landing @lookoutlanding.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It hasn’t been the season anyone, including Josh Naylor, hoped for, but behind the scenes Naylor has been quietly integrating himself into both his new team and Seattle as a whole: www.lookoutlanding.com/seattle-mari...

lookoutlanding.com

Find the helpers: Checking in with Josh Naylor at the end of year one

Josh Naylor finds community in Seattle

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

Going out on a limb and saying Dan Wilson is probably a better manager than Raul Ibañez.

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Brent Maguire @bmags94.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Angels need to go 3-1 in their final four-game series in Seattle to avoid their first 100-loss season in franchise history.

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I wrapped up my month-long project ranking MLB front offices this morning with the top ten operations in baseball. Has been a lot of fun and work to put together, I hope everyone has enjoyed it. @baseballprospectus.com www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

baseballprospectus.com

2026 Front Office Rankings: Teams 10-1 | Baseball Prospectus

Welcome back to the 2026 MLB Front Office Rankings. If you missed them, you can catch up on the first three articles here: Part 1: Introduction Part 2: Teams 30-21 Part 3: Teams 20-11 TIER 3: DEVILS R...

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Reposted by Ryan Blake

Lookout Landing @lookoutlanding.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Look the Mariners season has been excruciating but if you’re not hanging out on LL you’re just missing out Art by user lockonstratos and lock screen by andrewgolfsalot

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

The Mariners playoff odds are roughly (1/2)^12 == 0.02% — they need 12 consecutive outcomes to go their way to force a three-way tie and win the AL West. If they’re alive by this time tomorrow, it’ll be (1/2)^9 == 0.19%. Saturday (1/2)^6 == 1.56% Sunday (1/2)^3 == 12.5%

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

The Mariners began the day with 0.0% playoff odds. They ended the day with 0.0% playoff odds. And yet, they absolutely refuse to let this miserable season die. For @lookoutlanding.bsky.social

lookoutlanding.com

Mariners Live, Beat Astros 6-5 in Extras

The Worldwide Leader in never letting this season go

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

It's a silly thing, but I truly cannot recall ever seeing the Mariners Moose in the section behind home plate flailing around trying to distract the pitcher like that. Weird.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

I think 2022 is probably my favorite season. First year living in Seattle, stadium fully open post COVID. The win streak and surge. Julio ROY. Geno 30 tanks. Castillo trade. Great bullpen. Cal ending the streak. Had essentially 0 expectations in the playoffs. Felt like progress!

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

Yeah lot of up and down last year. The great April, the best homestand in team history, and the long win streak at the end, including a sweep in Houston. But the space in between was miserable. Then the playoffs were competitive, Geno's slam was amazing, but game 6-7 in TOR was so deflating.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/09/2026

I think the "worst" Mariners seasons of my lifetime have to be 2026, 2008, and 2010. But honorable mention for "least favorite" in 2021 and 2018. I mean, shit, as someone who started watching the team in 2004, I'm not sure I've really enjoyed any season so far.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 22/09/2026

A few months ago I came to conclusion that he'd just made a handful of understandable errors (losing a ball in the rain, losing one in the roof, over running another). But yeah they've just kept coming so might need to revisit that over the offseason.

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 22/09/2026

He dusted Leo Rivas in the spring

Leo Rivas chasing down Perry Hill in a drill during Spring Training

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Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 22/09/2026

Between Cal and Julio, the Mariners lost 22 FRV between 2025 and 2026.

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