Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/10/2026”Let‘s just model projected distance” They did this in the Home Run Derby in 2025 and I’m not sure anybody found this a satisfying resolution. 140
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/10/2026I find an even 50 batted balls in the Statcast Era with: - 103-107 mph EV - 46-52 degree of launch - 340 feet projected distance Of those 11 homers, including three this year. Here's another in The Trop from Christian Encarnacion-Strand (105.7 mph, 47 degrees, 359 feet). 230
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/10/2026Heh, first thing I though of was this Joc Pederson home run from July 105.3 mph 48 degrees 347 feet 1113
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026Next year... The math looks tough, especially after losing almost 20% of their '26 production to free agency. They need a lot to go right just to get back to being wild card contenders. 020
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026That makes it hard to say anything about the pitching. I truly don't know what happened. It was arguably the best in the majors in the first half. It was definitively the worst in the majors in the second half. They ultimately finished about average, even if it never felt anything close to average. 100
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026Unfortunately, whatever competence existed at the plate was erased in the field. This wasn't too surprising, as the team was awful defensively in 2025 and made few changes. But they lost an additional -24 fielding runs from Cal and Julio this year, pushing them to a historic new low. 100
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026The rest of the offense was... OK-ish. There were several bad performances, but there were a few great performances as well. Randy Arozarena specifically had one of the best seasons in team history. The non-Cal, non-Julio lineup was about as good as 2025 (and often better). 100
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026The premise of this roster was simple: Cal and Julio were the best duo in the majors. They are the reason the Mariners are relevant in this era at all. Unfortunately, both were hurt in 2026. Their missing performance represents most of the difference in WAR from 2025, though every group fell short. 120
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/09/2026The Mariners roster took a small but notable step forward in the offseason and began 2026 with their best ever projections. But sky high expectations had more to do with the lack of competition than a new "win now" ultimatum. This was merely year five of a 10-year plan, according to Jerry Dipoto. 110
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 17/09/2026The 2026 Mariners are just the 2024 Mariners without the season-saving managerial change. 041
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 29/08/2026This sequence to begin the fifth was great. Take, whiff, whiff for his third and final strikeout today. 000
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 26/08/2026WAR is great for many reasons but one is it controls for the park. That's crucial for the Mariners because T-Mobile Park suppresses runs by 15-20% — everyone has a good ERA in Seattle. A simple way to check this is with road ERA: Road 1st: 4.09 (10th) Road 2nd: 6.57 (30th) Road Full: 4.68 (21st) 030
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 12/08/2026The Mariners bullpen is bad. Michael Rucker *is* their second best reliever. 2103
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/08/2026Just a few thoughts on the Mariners deadline, for @lookoutlanding.bsky.social (Link: www.lookoutlanding.com/seattle-mari...) 010
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 01/08/2026Correct. Here's the map srec911.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant... 100
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 28/07/2026Closing in on the point where actual win rate is just as good at knowing what's next as pythag and BaseRuns. 230
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 28/07/2026The last time the Mariners were in third, I noted they likely hadn't played their worst yet. And yup, this mostly holds up for thinking about RoS. It wouldn't be weird for them to finish in the 86-90 win bucket they're aiming for. It'd be less weird for them to land in the 78-82 win bucket. 110
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/07/2026One last plot for the weekend, previewing The Battle of the Century 030
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 24/07/2026Narrowing the roll to 1000 plate appearances and we can see this is the worst stretch of the decade for the Mariners at the plate. 110
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 16/07/2026Separately, the district is moving forward with redesigning the path from the light rail station into the stadium. Next step is looking for artists. 0100
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 16/07/2026The Mariners have spent about $160M on T-Mobile Park since the last Long-Term Needs Assessment was completed four years ago. Here's the breakdown: 3120
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 13/06/2026Been working on replicating Savant's weighted GSv2 tool. Not quite a Skenes-ian ascent, but still damn impressive. Misiorowski now sixth in the majors. 000
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 13/06/2026Best starting pitcher performances by Game Score (v2) since 2000 121
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 06/06/2026Julio made his first five-star play of the year yesterday, though not in the way you'd expect. 261
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/06/2026If you're wondering about Detmers ERA (4.63) versus his FIP (2.98) 110
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 04/06/2026Oh good, from the Cubs broadcast it wasn't clear if he'd thrown his helmet or dematerialized 110
Ryan Blake @swingsandtakes.com · 03/06/2026The Rays have lost 8 of 10, allowing 7.4 runs per game. 110
