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Doug Coleman

@sweetferntea.bsky.social
52 followers 15 following 148 posts

Old retired guy in mid-Atlantic

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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 15h
Markets seem to be asking whether the anomaly was not today's 5% to 6% yields, but the long period during which capital was priced as if it were nearly abundant and free. A hyper-financialized superstructure built around ZIRP is being stressed by world where capital once again has meaningful price.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 15h
Higher real interest rates may not be a temporary aberration. They may simply reflect that capital has become economically scarce again because everyone wants it at once: sovereigns, infrastructure builders, power developers, and hyperscalers.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
“.. Without it, you do have that $200-a-barrel scenario, so it is pretty important it continues,” he said. “There aren’t any more inventories to drain in the west.” @financialtimes.com ⛽️ www.ft.com/content/95db...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“.. Distressed leveraged loans … a nearly 90% jump over the past 12 months ..” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 18h
Ahead of a $39 billion 10-year note auction at 1p.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 18h
How US mortgage bonds can trigger a ‘vicious loop’ for Treasury yields ft.trib.al/7ZHB601
ft.trib.al
How US mortgage bonds can trigger a ‘vicious loop’ for Treasury yields
One little cog in the bond market’s feedback machine
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Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The attempt to rebalance global trade has failed as the US trade deficit has increased. We expect the American trade deficit to widen to $102 billion when the data is published this morning from $88 billion previously. #Econ share.google/CPT9FaNV0kbE...
share.google
Market Minute: Rebalancing of trade falters as U.S. partners look elsewhere
The overall deficit has widened and the trade taxes imposed on U.S. companies are being passed along to customers, resulting in higher inflation.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
So pay more AND a bigger deficit. Pretty much the rising cost of AI build-out import expenditures and oil overwhelmed any improvement in trade balance from tariffs.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“.. U.S. trade deficit blew out to $105.6 billion in August ... up significantly from the prior month and now up by $34.4 billion in the past two months. .. Outside of the Liberation Day swings, this is a record.” - Schwab
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
(FT) - A sharp sell-off in US government bonds is starting to reverberate across corporate America, forcing companies to overhaul their borrowing plans and even raising the spectre of defaults among the most lowly rated businesses. @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/7c7c...
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Corporate America celebrated the pension-to-401(k) transition because it removed a volatile liability from balance sheets and boosted reported profitability. But in aggregate the system may have undermined one of the largest natural funding sources for long-term corporate borrowing.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Republicans still use "Hastert Rule" still named after speaker to manage their majority.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Paid millions to conceal allegations that sexual abuse of teenage boys when he was a high school wrestling coach. Prosecutors could not bring sexual abuse charges due to statutes of limitations. Pleaded guilty to lesser financial crime and was sentenced in 2016 to 15 months in federal prison.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Kinda thinking it also looks like WPA eagle of 1930s. Maybe Depression is here but just hasn't been announced?
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
“.. 2,000 trucks x $20,000 in fuel savings per year x 20 years. That works out to $800 million in total savings, for a whopping ~166% ROI.” @electrek.com electrek.co/2026/10/03/f...
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PeppyPanda 🐼 - Uplifting and good news @peppypanda.com · 04/10/2026
Europe just hit a major milestone! For the first time ever, electric vehicles outsold gasoline and diesel cars, signaling a powerful shift towards a cleaner future. 🚗⚡️ #EVs #ElectricVehicles #Europe #CleanEnergy
chosun.com
Electric Vehicles Outsell Gasoline, Diesel in Europe for First Time
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
“.. The cost to insure the debt of both companies against default .. is increasingly moving in lock-step, a sign investors are beginning to treat the two credits as intertwined. “.. You have to consider your total Larry Ellison risk,” Goodman said. $ORCL $PSKY www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Add to IMF statement a few days ago. When the world's most powerful financial officials admit they can't control the bond market, they are quietly admitting that the bond market is finally controlling them. Riding a tiger works. Until you fall off and are eaten.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The world may not need an all-seeing camera network if ordinary participation in modern life already produces enough metadata for machines to reconstruct much of the story anyway.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Global demand for productive capital may be increasing faster than the global pool of savings. Entering a decades-long transition where capital itself is becoming the dominant scarce factor of production, causing a structural repricing of capital assets and interest rates.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
College draft deferments part of 1948 Selective Service Act. Student deferment system was then implemented in the early '50s. Draft lottery didn't begin until '69. Last draft in '73 with fewer than 700. 70 in a few months, graduated in '75 after draft ended. Might as well be talking about civil war.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
“.. Tech payrolls have fallen to the lowest level since December 2020.” - Schwab
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Like trying to hold a beach ball underwater. $TNX @cnbc.com
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
When nearly all private payroll growth in the last five years has been in health-care or education -->
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
US AVERAGE WORKWEEK HRS ACTUAL 34.4 (FORECAST 34.3, PREVIOUS 34.4) $MACRO
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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 02/10/2026
The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
on.wsj.com
Employers Added 29,000 Jobs in September, and Unemployment Rose Slightly
The unemployment rate grew to 4.2%, up slightly from the previous month. Economists had expected 4.1%.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Benjamin Franklin and his once-close son grew estranged over politics and never really reconciled. I think most can relate stories of family estrangements that persisted for years or until death. Whether estrangements are growing of just more visible via social media remains to be seen.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
4 Negatives: Death of "Amortization Luxury". Capital Rationing. ROIC Dominance. Death of Reserve Currency Privilege. Organic capital demand outstripping organic capital supply will reshape economic relations and economic order.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
All the funnier because Missouri borders Iowa. A closet sports illiterate exposed.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Which is worse? In the closet to hide sexual orientation or in the closet to hide sports illiteracy?
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
EU OPEN TO ENGAGING ON RELATIONSHIP OPTIONS UK MAY PUT FORWARD
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
If not for Clint Eastwood's use of the song in Play Misty for Me, Roberta Flack might not have become one of the biggest pop stars of the early 1970s. Track was released in '69 but hit #1 on hot 100 after movie release. One of the biggest-selling singles of 1972.
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
France’s Macron: If the British PM wants Britain to return to the EU, that would be excellent news and a good decision.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
More so because Missouri borders Iowa and his closeted sports illiteracy was exposed on TV.\.
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
SPANISH PM SANCHEZ: SPAIN WOULD WELCOME BRITAIN BACK INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION WITH OPEN ARMS
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Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 30/09/2026
📈 Only one policy option gets £92bn in growth. 💪 Only one policy option boosts our exports by £43bn every single year. 🇪🇺 Britain needs to rejoin the EU. And the EU needs Britain.
independent.co.uk
Burnham says he could go ‘all the way’ and rejoin European Union in Brexit warning
PM said one option was to back George Osborne’s call, made in an interview with The Independent, to rejoin the EU custom
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Sovereign borrowing, hyperscaler capex, grid investment, industrial policy, rearmament, and emerging-market development are all manifestations of the same underlying reality: a return to a capital-hungry world economy.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What is more funny is that Missouri and Iowa share a border.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
“.. Very good one sentence summary of the economy.” - Kyra Scanlon
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Basically, zirp era an historical anomaly, not the new normal.
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Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good morning. In markets, US bond yields are back in focus, with the 10-year hitting 5.22%, its highest level since 2002 -- as Brent oil approaches $110. (CNBC chart below.) #economy #markets #oil #energy #bonds #yields
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
After the Great Depression in 1929, the Republicans lost the House but narrowly kept the Senate. The bottom didn't drop out for Hoover and Republicans until about a year before 1932 Presidential election. It took 20 years before Republicans again gained presidency and controlled Congress.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
(Bloomberg) - US manufacturers installed roughly 38,500 industrial robots in 2025, a year in which they simultaneously cut more than 100,000 human jobs. @blsuth.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Baltimore Banner @thebaltimorebanner.com · 24/09/2026
Second poll finds more supportive view of Maryland redistricting vote
buff.ly
Second poll finds more supportive view of Maryland redistricting vote
The new poll shows 40% of likely voters would vote for an amendment to the state constitution that could make congressional gerrymandering easier. Another 35% were opposed, and 25% were not sure.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 25/09/2026
Japanese government bond yields hit new high as global sell-off continues ft.trib.al/Lgy8eCZ
ft.trib.al
Japanese government bond yields hit new high as global sell-off continues
Sharp increase in interest rate expectations across advanced economies, says Capital Economics
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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (M/M) AUG P: 0.0% (EST -0.3%; PREV 1.1%; PREVR 0.9%) || DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION (M/M): 0.3% (EST 0.6%; PREV 0.4%)
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
And that isn't even counting sovereign-like hyperscaler issuance and accelerating US sovereign issuance.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I think 6 is the new 5.
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Doug Coleman @sweetferntea.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This gargantuan scale is more than a capital and labor story. Capital is beginning to substitute as synthetic labor. Capital itself is becoming the scarcest strategic commodity altering existing capital labor relationship. The world moving from labor-constrained growth to capital-constrained growth.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
SCHWAB: “.. While we have seen this level of yields before and some say we are just back in the ‘old normal,’ I think what sometimes gets lost in the discourse is the speed with which rates have moved higher ... we haven't seen this kind of 5-year increase in the 10y yield since the '80s.”
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