iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

age yourself with a childhood crush

Jennifer Connelly riding a pony at the mall in Career Opportunities circa 1991.

Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This explanation is plausible. Still horrifying... But plague isn't naturally airborne. This definitely sounds like Pneumonic Plague (Yersinia Pestis) bacteria, which infects the lungs and can be spread via respiratory droplets through coughing and/or sneezing. Doesn't typically hang in the air.

The woman was identified as Daria Sh. A 27 or 27 year old employee of the Irkutsk anti-plague institute...

She reportedly told medical staff that she had accidentally broken a test tube containing live bacteria while collecting samples for testing.

She was hospitalized Tuesday with symptoms of severe pneumonia in Shelekhov, a town near the regional capital of Irkutsk. She was placed on a ventilator and died Thursday, according to the repirts.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I feel like Cathal Kelly's references could use some work. Citing Terry Sawchuk as an attempted joke reference wrt Sergei Bobrovsky is just amazingly stupid given he was added by the Leafs for his age 35-37 seasons and was the last Leafs goalie to win a Stanley Cup - in the age 37 season.

"The elevator pitch for giving Bobrovsky, 114, a three year deal is "two-time Vezina and Stanley Cup winner." By that logic, why didn't anyone in scouting give Terry Sawchuk a look? Yes, obviously, Sawchuk is not quite alive, but his CV sparkles."

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

This is like a weird rendition of one of my favourite paintings, the Triumph of Death by Pietr Bruegel the Elder.

The Triumph of Death by Pietr Bruegel the Elder, painted in 1562.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Hmm but seriously? Because the Elon Musk example seems to disprove this exact argument. We 100% do ignore a car company selling flaming death traps while the CEO talks about building space bases on Mars.

"To extend an analogy I've made before, if Ford automobiles were spontaneously catching on fire, we wouldn't tolerate the CEO's changing the subject to discuss our general lack of preparedness for a future with flying cars. We'd demand that the company address the acute problem happening right now."

TL;DR: The Cyber Truck is 17x more likely to have a fire fatality than a Ford Pinto.

Along with a table showing that the Fatality Rate per 100,000 units sold is 14.52 for the CyberTruck and 0.85 for the Pinto.

"Elon Musk: We must colonise Mars to preserve our species in a third world war."

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

... Ummm... Seems more than a tad premature. 1 NHL season. 76 career gp, 26 pts.

The xGAR D percentile table for Zeev Buium showing he ranked at the 23.3% rank in his NHL rookie season between Jamie Oleksiak and Dmitry Kulikov... But with atrocious defensive impacts.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

A majority of *Americans* polled support Canada doing this. 43% support, 40% oppose

YouGov Poll showing 43% of polled Americans approve of Canada imposing 50% retaliatory tariffs on American goods. 40% oppose.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Had that last week. It is solid.

A photo of a pint of the Sawdust City Bone Pine IPA.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

I don't know if any of you care about Swervedriver - but I went to their show last night with Slow Fiction and they are still super fucking loud. Great show overall!

Swervedriver on stage at the Phoenix Concert Theatre in Toronto on August 21st, 2026... still trying to make ears bleed 35 years after they released their first LP.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Yes I can read the chart. This chart actually shows the gender wage gap since 1981. 10% of the shift occurred from 1981 to 2004. 5% since.

Chart from Statscan showing the gender wage ratio since 1981.

The most substantial portion of the decline in the gender wage gap occurs from 1981 to 2004 (75% to 85%), since 2004 it has shifted from 85% to 90%.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Halfway through the ad, when you get to see the "glam rock" band performing the weirdly wholesome advertising jingle is a shock to the senses to be honest.

What looks like an 80's hair metal band performing the Ramblin' Root Beer ad jingle?

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

A pew poll back in June showed 77% of Israelis who didn't support the Netenyahu coalition approved of going to war with Iran.

Results from a Pew Research Center poll of Israeli adults from June showing 96% of those who support Netenyahu's coalition supported war on Iran and 77% of those who oppose his coalition *also* supported war with Iran.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Can probably buy both as a gift set?

Amazon page showing Dara Horn's 2 most recently published works: "The Final Solution to The Jewish Question" and "People Love Dead Jews"

WTF?

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

I still think it was very weird how severely the price dipped at the end of June. But... Here we go again.

WTI Crude Sep 26 price chart for the past 6 months showing peaks in April above $110 USD, and elevated prices above $90 from April to early June, before dipping back down to $70 at the start of July.

It is now skyrocketing back up to $91.58 as the conflict with Iran ramps back up... and continuing to rise.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

The OPC have been losing ground to the Liberals in polling in Ontario persistently since April, and the new scandal with the hotel expenses hadn't hit yet when the most recent poll shown here occurred (in June).

Table from 338 Canada showing recent provincial polls of voting intention.

Since April the Liberals have held the lead in 3 of the last 7 polls, and the OPC has consistently fallen under 40%.

Graph showing combined poll results over time with the OPC lead through most of 2024-25 over the Liberals shrinking to a statistical dead heat in mid 2026.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

It was regularly referred to as an "insurgency" and "insurgent movement" from 2009-14. No idea how you missed that.

NY Times article from Jan 14, 2012 with the headline History vs. the Tea Party.

Opening sentence states: "For more than two years, conservatives have been riding a wave of Tea Party Insurgency that has formed the most dynamic force in American politics..."

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

About that last part. No... He really isn't. This tracker is from polls by the Angus Ried institute. Which leans conservative. PP isn't going to get elected. He couldn't even win his own riding. Canadians dislike the man.

Canadian poll tracker from Angus Ried showing approval and disapproval of CPC leader Pierre Poilievere.

His favorability peaked around 40% in early 2024. As of June 2026 it has fallen to 33%. Disapproval has been 60% (where it sits currently) off and on since March 2025.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

The air quality in Hamilton and the western GTHA is far worse this morning than the east end of the city, towards Pickering and Oshawa. Just for those who aren't sure how it is because the visual cues are less obvious.

IQAir map showing pollution readings for the Greater Toronto Area. The East end is far less hazardous than the west/southwest region.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Toronto's elevated air pollution will last about 2 days, winds are supposed to clear a lot of it out by this evening. 50-100 is "moderate".

3 day air pollution forecast for Toronto, ON from IQAir showing the reading dropping from 151 Today, to 68 Friday and 79 Saturday.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

I do disagree pretty cleanly on this point. Owning shares in Tesla or SpaceX as an institutional investor is not a sign of intelligence. If they are listed on the S&P 500, *passive* funds are *required* to purchase shares regardless of their opinion of the corporation. They are mitigating risk.

Aside from the US government, Musk's largest backers are asset managers like BlackRock and State Street. Norway's sovereign wealth fund is one of the largest institutional investors in Tesla. These people are not easily duped and do not especially care about owning the libs.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Seems like a corruption problem? Zelenskyy is trying to remove independent anti-corruption oversight and is ousting the *popular* and *effective* defense minister (who has only been in place since January) because he is blocking *profits* for defense contractors?

Defense industry officials, senior Ukranian officials, MPs from Zelenskyy's party and others familiar with the matter have also said - some publicly - that Federov [outgoing defense minister] had been a barrier to interests seeking profit from Ukraine's vast wartime defense budget.

...

The protest comes almost exactly a year after Zelenskyy's attempted power grab to strip Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies of their independence and subordinate them to his handpicked prosecutor general. At the time, parliament rubber-stamped the legislation but was forced to quickly backtrack after public uproar and the first mass scale protests since the full-scale war began.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

But this is... No... What? Just because something is economically catastrophic doesn't mean the idiots responsible won't do it. Human history is *filled* with endless examples of idiots with too much power destroying their economy. There is no fundamental magical process that prevents it.

The AI book's surging financing needs have brought greater entanglement between the AI complex and broader financial markets, as the Bank for International Settlements recently warned in its annual report. A new round of market volatility which choked off AI investment might therefore trigger a financial shock worse than any war-related scenario markets have so far contemplated.

That probably won't happen. Some new deal to calm the fighting will no doubt be announced soon. Eventually, shipping through the straight will rise back to something like the prewar norm. It has to, right? After all, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be economically catastrophic.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Yay. Worst air quality in the world and rapidly worsening. Cool.

Table from IQAir showing cities with the worst current air quality globally.

Toronto ranks in 1st (192) ahead of Kinshasa (163) and Dubai (143).

Anything above 150 is "unhealthy" for everyone.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Yanno what is wild ... The US federal government pays more for health care per capita than virtually any other developed western nation (like over 2x what everyone else spends), and they STILL don't have universal coverage. It's absurd.

Graph comparing the per capita health care spending of the US to a variety of other developed nations and the OECD average.

The US spends $13,473.19 per capita as of 2023. The OECD average was $5915.54 in 2023.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Ok but what is happening here? Is that bare ass on the bench?

A woman installing a bench with a drill, while another person sits on it... And what looks like their bare butt hanging out on the seat?

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This is both entirely unsurprising and yet mildly absurd. Trump literally proposed this exact scheme in August, 1989 - a year before the first Gulf War began. The man is a mercantilist who doesn't give 2 shits about basic economic theory. Mafia states are universally underdeveloped backwaters.

Trump quote from Aug 17, 1989:

"The United States should get 25 percent or so of Kuwait's and Saudi Arabia's oil profits for risking American lived protecting the Persian Gulf. The "mobsters" call it "protection money," but America needs help balancing it's budget," Trump said.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Like the US doesn't *control the Strait* because to do so would necessitate controlling the entire Iranian coastline along it. And they clearly don't control that. The Iranians do.

Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Tracker showing a vessel seizure comparison of Iran (11) vs the US (4).

The tracker also lists the vessels and stated reason given for the seizure.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

But 2 years ago - when healthy - he did this. So yeah. I am going to ignore any argument that suggests he can't drive play. It's silly.

Matthew Knies RAPM chart from his breakout campaign in 2024-25 that shows him as having an above average impact in every category except CF60... Where he is average.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Interestingly they have definitely taken this to heart.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Slightly over $3M AAV for 4 years for a guy who was a 41st overall selection, is 25 with 155 NHL gp and was playing 3rd pair for a SC Finalist this year is bad? Guy who does this defensively? Why is that terrible?

RAPM chart for Kaedan Korczak showing he has had excellent defensive impacts at even strength on the 3rd pair for Vegas.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

I always work as if Siberia is just all of the North East... When it is really just a relatively central federal district for the region. This persistently screws me up.

Map from Wikipedia showing the Siberian Federal District of Russia which is *not* occupying most of the North Eastern region of Asia.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

This reminds me of the two pitchers named Brady Fiegl. Unrelated doppelganger 6'4", redheads, with glasses and bushy beards, that pitched in MiLB (one made MLB). 5 yr age diff. Discovered each other when they both got Tommy John surgery from James Andrews at the same clinic within the same year.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

I love this from Quieroz... Just casually backhanding Italy, Denmark, Greece, Wales and Poland.

"Who did not qualify in Europe? The qualification tournaments start to lose their significance if everyone qualifies. Qualification should be serious, it should be very tough, very competitive."

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

The number of people who think a player who produced 58 pts in 73 gp is a "3rd liner" is far far too high. Eklund is a legit top 6 W, who produced 2.20 pts/60 last year - exactly the same as C Giroux, ahead of E Pettersson (2.18), and just behind B McMann (2.22) and J Eberle (2.23)

William Eklund's 2025-26 RAPM chart showing positive impacts everywhere except for xGA/60 at evens.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Sherwood is interesting because he is a worse skater but shows positive impacts on shot attempts for and against... But NOT positive effects on either xGF and xGA. May be showing some empty calories for the unit at EV, but he puts the puck in the net obviously.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Yeah I agree on the foot speed aspect also. Here are Boeser and Pettersson's RAPMs from the same 3 year span. Clearly not remotely as impactful on D.

Brock Boeser's 3 year RAPM chart from 2021-24 showing negative defensive impacts and huge positive impacts on the PP and EV GF/60.

Elias Pettersson's RAPM chart from 2021-24 showing elite offensive impacts at both EV and on the PP with average defensive impacts.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

My quick perusal of the F's the latter two years would be that there is a notable downgrade in defensive impacts for his Ws. Like here is the 3 year RAPM for Mikheyev ending in 2023-24. He is clearly having huge impacts defensively.

3 year RAPM chart for Ilya Mikheyev from 2021-24, showing elite defensive impacts on EV xGA/60 and CA/60.

He spent the latter two years primarily playing with Elias Pettersson.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Here are the pitches he sees more than 6% of the time. Sliders and Cut Fastballs... WTF?

Statcast Batted Run Value by pitch type for Guerrero Jr. Showing he is +1 for Sinkers, +4 for 4 seam fastballs, +3 for Changeups, and 0 for Sweepers... But -2 for Cut Fast Balls and -4 for Sliders.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

I'd recommend checking out Cavendish and the beaches all over the island while there. I'm particularly fond of the lighthouse at Cape Tryon for various reasons. Cove Head also pretty awesome.

Photo of my 2 kids in front of the lighthouse at Cape Tryon, French River, PEI.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

This in particular is what people should key upon. The word "smart" gets used 4 times in these quotes. 3 times by his minor league coach, in 3 consecutive sentences.

"He had hockey sense, and that's something you can't teach. His only downfall was, at that time, his foot speed. But he was very smart," said Strong, his coach with the (Toronto) Marlboros (GTHL U-16 team).

"We worked on his foot speed, but he would never get in trouble because he was so smart. He just became such a smart, reliable guy and the foot speed didn't hurt him as much on defense because he could pivot well. And he was a great kid. He just flourished from there."

"It was like it was made for him."

Today, it is still Raddysh's brain that stands out to his coach, and to his teammates.

"I think his hockey IQ as a defenseman is really smart, understanding where there's a threat and when it's time to be aggressive," Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh said.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

He puts up points. Like the guy clearly drives offense. His pts/60 the last 3 years: 1.26, 1.76, 2.54 and last year was the first where he got top PP usage. The last 2 years are essentially as good/better than anything Rielly has managed.

Darren Raddysh's 3 year RAPM chart from Evolving-Hockey.com showing he is elite at impacting goals, expected goals and shot attempts, and slightly above average defensively.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

It's more than 1 good season. He wasn't a rookie last year. He's been good every year (for 5 years) and just finally got top pair mins last year.

Darren Raddysh's career xSPAR chart showing he has been considerably above average at xSPAR/60 for 5 straight seasons.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

McCabe has been excellent for the Leafs overall. They could move him yesterday if they wanted to. His NTC shifts to a partial after this season. He is 32 and isn't in decline. That contract isn't problematic particularly.

Jake McCabe career Standing Points Above Replacement Chart showing he has been persistently around 2.0 SPAR across the last 5 years and above 1.0 SPAR for the last decade.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

In case anyone is wondering (I know you aren't)... Dillon's makes some very fine libations.

A full glass and empty can of Dillon's Small Batch Gin Cocktail (Apple, Cranberry and Cherry Blossom flavor)

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

First *new* sour of the season, after an 80+ km bike ride feels fitting.

A photo showing a full glass and the can for a Collective Arts Sour 35 - Grape Calamansi - the art on the can features a purple background with an orange hissing snake with glowing starburst eyes, surrounded by green stemmed pink flowers.

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Steve Burtch @stephenburtch.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

He also saw his TOI drop drastically when they were protecting a lead. And he had the best QoT on the team D, and the heaviest OZ usage. Like he was heavily sheltered.

HockeyViz chart for defender TOI by score differential. Brandt Clarke was used more when trailing and saw his TOI drop precipitously when leading.

QoT and QoC chart for LAK D from HockeyViz.

Clarke has the highest QoT and 5th hardest QoC.

Leverage chart for LAK from HockeyViz showing Clarke in the lower right. He wasn't relied upon defensively but was offensively.

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