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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Christophe Cassou @cassouman40.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Le changement climatique (CC) n'augmente pas le nombre de cyclones mais la proportion des +intenses. Dit autrement, le CC inhibe en moyenne la formation des cyclones mais quand ils se forment, ils s'intensifient +rapidement, sont de catégories +élevées avec des effets (inondations...) démultipliés.

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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

Here’s a 48-hour water vapor loop of Ex-Hurricane Erin spinning on its final approach to Europe. Truly mesmerizing.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

The HuracanPy JOSS paper is officially out! 🌀 If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code! doi.org/10.21105/jos...

doi.org

HuracanPy: A Python package for reading and analysing cyclone tracks

Bourdin et al., (2025). HuracanPy: A Python package for reading and analysing cyclone tracks. Journal of Open Source Software, 10(111), 8174, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.08174

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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Christophe Cassou @cassouman40.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Qques mots forts que j'ai prononcés avec émotion @franceinfo.fr C'est un mensonge de laisser croire que l'on s'adaptera sans casse irréversible dans une France à 4°C. On ne s'adapte pas a un effondrement de la biodiversité; on meurt avec! Les régressions actuelles sont irresponsables & suicidaires.

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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Christophe Cassou @cassouman40.bsky.social · 27/12/2024

Il est cynique d'invoquer le changement climatique quand cela arrange pour invisibiliser les autres causes des catastrophes liées à des choix historiques&politiques (vulnérabilités). Raisonner ainsi actera l’échec de l'adaptation. Nous climatologues, le dénonçons! Fil🧵 www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

lemonde.fr

« A Mayotte ou Valence, en Espagne, il serait réducteur d’attribuer la gravité des dégâts matériels et humains uniquement au changement climatique »

TRIBUNE. Ne se concentrer que sur le rôle du changement climatique tend à invisibiliser les autres causes fondamentales des catastrophes dites « naturelles », très souvent liées à des choix historique...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

The storm's remnants meandered until they reached the Portuguese coast, where they dissipated. There, they brought heavy rains (up to 84mm/24h), and numerous incidents were reported including downed trees and flash floods. One man was injured.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Danielle was identified as Tropical Storm Danielle on Sept. 1st. It became a hurricane the next day. It sustained itself for a few days thanks to abnormally warm waters and light shear, alternating between tropical storm and cat. 1. On Sept. 8, it finally transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 24/24: Danielle 2022. 🌀 Last of our series is Danielle 2022! Another subtropical storm, which caused flooding and landslides in Portugal.

By NASA/NOAA-20 - https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=122659414

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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Bon Pote @bonpote.com · 23/12/2024

"Chaque désastre est devenu une opportunité pour faire triompher ses valeurs, son idéologie et ses convictions, quitte à se livrer parfois à une instrumentalisation écœurante." Analyse de @magalireghezza.bsky.social sur la situation à Mayotte bonpote.com/mayotte-a-qu...

bonpote.com

Mayotte, à qui la faute?

Alors que l’on ne connaît toujours pas le nombre de décès consécutifs au passage du Cyclone Chido, qui a ravagé Mayotte

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Day 20: Lorenzo 2019 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

On Oct. 4th, the storm reached Ireland while Met Eireann had issued an orange warning for six counties and yellow for the rest of the country. Strong gusts damaged infrastructure and cut electricity. Some flooding was reported. In the UK, one person was killed after being struck by a falling tree.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Although the storm was very far from the american coasts, 8 persons drowned after being caught in rip currents, or swept away by strong waves.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

On Sept 26th, a ship sank with 14 crew members on board. Only three of them could be rescued.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

After an eyewall replacement cycle, it re-intensified to reach cat. 5 on Sept. 29th, becoming the easternmost cat. 5 Atlantic hurricane. At this stage, it was moving poleward, and starting recurvating towards Europe.

Lorenzo at peak intensity

By NASA - https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=82665868

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Back to tropical wave hurricanes, Lorenzo formed from an African Easterly wave right off the coast on Sept . 22nd. Evolving in very favourable conditions, the system quickly organised and intensified until it reached first time category 4 on Sept. 27th.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 20/24: Lorenzo 2019. 🌀 Lorenzo was a category 5 major hurricane over the open Atlantic Ocean, that reached Ireland after having substantially weakened.

By EOSDIS Worldview — Terra/MODIS - EOSDIS Worldview, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=82793891

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Day 19: Leslie 2018 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

In France, Leslie participated in a circulation that caused extremely severe flooding: 295mm of precipitation accumulating over only 12h made the river Aude rise by more than 7m. 15 persons died as a consquence of the floods.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

In Portugal, the storm brought gusts up to 190km/h, likely associated with a sting jet. It was the worst storm Portugal had experienced since 1842. Leslie made 2 casualties and extensive infrastructural damage.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Leslie reached its maximum intensity on Oct. 12th. about 36h, it completed transition, very close to the Portugese coast, and only a few hours before making landfall.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Leslie, like Ophelia (2017) was a subtropical storm that underwent tropical transition. It had a very erratic path and went through two cycles of intensification, during which it reached cat. 1. After completing two loops, the cyclone went straight to the Iberian peninsula.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 19/24: Leslie 2018. 🌀 Leslie was a rather unusual subtropical storm that nearly hit Portugal with tropical characteristics. It made 2 direct and 15 indirect victims.

By NASA - https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=73593118

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Day 18: Ophelia 2017 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

In Ireland, two persons were killed by a tree falling on their car, and several other died in the aftermath of the storm while working on the repairs. The storm also impacted the UK and Eastern Europe, with no reported victims. Insurance claims amounted to nearly $90 million (2017 USD).

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Met Eireann issued a red warning more than 48h in advance, anticipating a formidable storm already. On October 16th, the storm made landfall, bringing gusts up to 191km/h.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

After its peak, Ophelia moved quickly northward, and started weakening as it encountered shear conditions. It completed transition early on Oct. 16th at ~47°N, while still being associated with cat. 1 winds. It then made landfall in Ireland.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

At this stage, Ophelia approached the Iberian peninsula. Resulting winds are thought to have helped to develop wildfires that made at least 49 victims.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

It reached it peak intensity, cat. 3, on Octber 14th, while at ~35°N, and 27.7°W, becoming the farthest east a cat. 3 hurricane was observed in the satellite era. At this peak maximum winds attained 185 km/h, and minimum pressure 959 hPa.

Ophelia at peak intensity

By National Aeronautics and Space Administration, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response, captured on Suomi NPP satellite - https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Ophelia.A2017287.1454.375m.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63381519

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Recording by the NHC started Oct. 7th. The storm gained in intensity and developped more and more tropical characteristics, until it was classified as a hurricane on October 11th. It then intensified, reaching cat. 2 on Oct. 12th.

Hurricane Ophelia near its initial peak intensity on 12 October

By National Aeronautics and Space Administration, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response, captured on Suomi NPP satellite - https://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Ophelia.A2017285.1530.375m.jpg, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63349566

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Ophelia is the first case in our list that does not form from a tropical wave in the deep tropics, but rather as a subtropical cyclone undergoing tropical transition (the process through which an extra-tropical cyclone can become a tropical cyclone given the right conditions).

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 18/24: Ophelia 2017. 🌀 Now for the celebrity of the show: Hurricane Ophelia. Ophelia hit Ireland and the UK with extremely powerful winds, causing 3 deaths. It became a benchmark storm for the field and is now subject of case studies.

By NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) - https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/ex-hurricane-ophelia-batters-coast-ireland-oct-16th, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63495813

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

(Two days of interruption due to treating cyclone Chido)

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Day 15: Henri 2015 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Nous sommes bien d'accord. C'est ce que je mentionne en premier dans la question concernée.

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Reposted by Stella Bourdin

Audrey Garric @audreygarric.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Si le lien entre Chido et le réchauffement climatique est difficile à établir, la tendance à long terme est claire: les cyclones vont être plus puissants, associés à plus de pluies et s'intensifier rapidement en raison de la hausse des émissions de gaz à effet de serre www.lemonde.fr/planete/arti...

lemonde.fr

Le cyclone Chido a probablement été dopé par les températures très élevées de l’océan Indien

Si le lien entre le cyclone très destructeur à Mayotte et le réchauffement climatique est difficile à établir, la tendance à long terme est claire : les cyclones vont être plus intenses plus rapidemen...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Trois victimes furent dénombrées: Une première suite à la chute d'un arbre sur une voiture, une deuxième à cause d'untoit arraché, et une troisième après d'effondrement de sa grange.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

D'importants dégâts furent reportés, notamment en France. Des rafales jusqu'à 135 km/h furent enregistrées en plaine, et plus de 190 km/h en montagne. Trois tornades furent reportées. 291mm de pluies tombèrent en 48h en Ardèche.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

Cependant, les données de réanalyses concordent pour dire que Henri a continué son chemin jusqu'en Europe. Sa transition a probablement eu lieu peu de temps après que le NHC ait cessé de l'enregistrer alors qu'il intégrait la circulation de moyenne latitude.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

La trajectoire officiel d'Henri ne dure que 3 jours. Nommé le 9 Septembre, la tempête atteint une pression minimale de 1003hPa et avec des vents à 80km/h et cesse d'être enregistrée le 11 September.

By 2003 LN6 - Created by 2003 LN6 using Wikipedia:WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Tracks. The background image is from NASA. Tracking data is from the National Hurricane Center[1]., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=145786939

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 15/24: Henri 2015. 🌀 La tempête tropicale Henri de 2015, bien que inoffensive pendant sa phase tropicale, fit des dégâts en France et en Allemagne, et 3 victimes.

By The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) - EOSDIS Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/), Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=92960348

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Day 14: Gonzalo 2014 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

In the UK, the storm brought strong gusts. Several were injured by falling trees and one died. Two others related deaths were reported. The storm disrupted transports in Germany, and brought snow to the Alps. In Greece, the storm produced heavy precipitations that flooded Athens.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

It completed its transition at 50°N on October 19th. While the official track stops soon after, it is possible to reconstitute the track further using reanalyses. These tracks show the storm moving towards the British Isles, and crossing Europe until Greece.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Gonzalo was named on Oct. 12 after forming from a tropical wave. It moved northwestward while intensifying rapidly, and had impact in the Antilles. It reached its peak intensity, cat. 4, on Oct. 16th while recurvating. It then tracked northeastward.

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 14/24: Gonzalo 2014. 🌀 In 2014, Gonzalo managed to cross the entire Europe, from the UK to Greece. Unfortunately, it made three victims along the way.

By NRLMRY - https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/test/kml/TC/2014/ATL/08L/visir/20141016.1215.GOES13.vis.08L.GONZALO.ATL.png, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=68631253

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Guillaume Jauseau @guillaumejauseau.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

🌀Le scénario que l’on considérait comme le pire vient de frapper #Mayotte, où le cyclone #Chido a causé au moins 2 morts & des destructions impensables pour une population vulnérable. ∙226 km/h - Dzaoudzi ∙218 km/h - Pamandzi Les rafales estimées en mer pourraient atteindre 280km/h. @meteociel.fr

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Dr. Serge Zaka @sergezaka.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

Le scénario du pire est en cours. L'œil du cyclone frappe de plein fouet Mayotte, dont la population est très VULNERABLE : choléra, accès à l'eau, bidonville, 77% de pauvreté... La 1ère tâche de notre #PremierMinistre doit absolument garantir la sécurité de nos concitoyens ! Quelle tristesse !

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Météociel @meteociel.fr · 14/12/2024

Hélas le pire est en train de se dérouler à #Mayotte l'œil du cyclone va traverser l'île d'ici quelques minutes L'Alerte violette 🟣 est en cours, l'œil du cyclone va créer une accalmie temporaire avant le passage du second mur du cyclone #CHIDO

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Day 13: Katia 2011 bsky.app/profile/stel...

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Stella Bourdin @stella-bourdin.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

The remnants of the storm impacted areas as far as Eastern Europe, with strong winds and power disruptions.

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