iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We intuitively underestimate how intertwined common sense and social science are. Social science is shot through with common sense, and conversely, it has gradually changed common sense in ways we often fail to see. www.update.news/p/social-sci...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Many people are optimistic about the potential for further progress in psychology, but I think they underestimate the obstacles, as well as how much of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. www.update.news/p/the-limits...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Why are our explanations of other people’s actions often so cynical? In today's post I lay out a series of causes and argue that this cynical bias is akin to our neglect of human agency. www.update.news/p/the-roots-...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Substantial existential risk is more likely to be concentrated in one or two outliers than in several unrelated threats.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Existential risk estimates depend on both the difficulty of the problem (what it'd take to prevent disaster) and our likely response, but the first factor gets most attention. Here I argue that's a mistake. www.update.news/p/the-respon...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

My friends and I made this path thirty years ago by larping in the ditch. I'm glad to see it has survived.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Danish paper finds big economic gains from GLP-1 drugs. “We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.” www.nber.org/papers/w35475

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

The UK used to be much more unequal than Sweden, but the Gini coefficients have almost converged. Perceptions are lagging.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions. It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes. www.update.news/p/the-ration...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas. But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be. www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

I wrote some possibly nit-picky comments www.update.news/p/growth-won...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake www.ft.com/content/04a9...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

When ChatGPT was launched, almost all users were men – but now, women are the majority www.update.news/p/will-ai-dr...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Anthropic just passed $1 trillion in valuation on Ventuals. OpenAI still has the most users but have fallen behind in terms of valuation. www.update.news/p/nature-stu...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

The debate over AI and jobs is too nearsighted, and should consider where we're eventually heading. AI leaders talking about widespread automation isn't a mere marketing strategy. www.update.news/p/growth-won...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The list of Swiss constitutional amendments triggered by citizen-initiated referendums is strikingly populist. www.update.news/p/american-c...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Incredible turnout in Hungary, especially in Magyar-voting Budapest

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Magyar now 80% likely to replace Orban as PM of Hungary according to Polymarket

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Anthropic overtakes OpenAI on Ventuals, a (small) market for private company valuations

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Might AI gradually become less politically salient, like the internet? I don’t think so, since unlike the internet, AI will change drastically with time. www.update.news/p/driverless...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

The British government tries to get Anthropic to expand in the UK www.ft.com/content/6bfd...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Philosophers cite more empirical sources than they used to www.update.news/i/192954532/...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. www.ft.com/content/3880...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Canadian growth has fallen behind the US and the rest of the OECD in the last decade. Part of the problem is brain drain to the US: a Bank of Canada working paper estimates that 40% of the most skilled workers may have emigrated. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Chinese people used to be much shorter than Americans, but thanks to better nutrition, this has changed. Chinese girls are now taller than American girls, and Chinese boys are almost as tall as American boys. But the gap with young Dutch people remains large. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

The US is much less dependent on foreign oil than it used to be. Some may have thought that would mean fewer foolish wars in the Middle East, but it could cut the other way. www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Anthropic could be on track to overtake OpenAI in revenue thanks to a rising market share among enterprise users www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Canada’s population is shrinking for the first time on record In today’s newsletter, I also cover: The Anglosphere is falling in life satisfaction rankings Anthropic could overtake OpenAI Southern Europeans live longer than richer northerners And more www.update.news/p/corn-farmi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

The English-speaking world is falling in rankings of life satisfaction (The Economist)

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Rent in rent-regulated vs second-hand unregulated flats in Sweden's three largest cities. Rents are 2.5x higher on the second-hand market in Stockholm. An arbitrary and poor system. (Monthly rent in SEK/square meter.) fastighetstidningen.se/nyhet/gapet-...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

This actually understates the gap between England and the US. After grants and discounts, in-state students at US public colleges pay ~$2,500 per year. English bursaries are much smaller. www.update.news/p/why-all-th...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

I think that overstates what US students actually have to pay www.update.news/p/why-all-th...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Though southern Europe has a lower GDP than northern Europe, it has a higher life expectancy ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The EU employment rate keeps breaking records on the back of rising employment in southern Europe ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Half of the youngest British voters now say they intend to vote for the Greens yougov.com/en-gb/tracke...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

On average, the richest one percent of American men have partners just two years younger than themselves. Striking contrast to some online discourse.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Metaculus forecasters now expect "weak AGI" to arrive later than they did just before the launch of ChatGPT

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

After Maduro and Khamenei, Cuba's leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is expected to be next. Polymarket estimates a 61% chance he is out by 30th June From today's newsletter, also with links on India's mismeasured GDP, Orbán expected to lose, and more. www.update.news/p/cubas-lead...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

There are now more tech workers going from the US to Europe than the other way around

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

The debate on population decline is often confusing. I distinguish between: * The transition problem: a falling population affecting the age structure * The size problem: fewer people being bad in itself * The balance problem: decline in well-functioning countries www.update.news/p/why-does-p...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

The company that Swedes trust the most is the government alcohol monopoly. IKEA is a distant second.

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