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Good point. Let's hope so - meaning the inflation peak being less than forecast.

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UK inflation is now around the same level as France and Germany, after being higher for the last year, with inflation in France climbing from 0.4% in Jan 26 to 2.8% in latest May data. See www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl... for details. 4/4

ons.gov.uk

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When the new (higher) cap comes into the stats in the July data (out in August), it will add 0.4ppts to CPI according to Bank of England. But for now, good news, and another month when the Governor of the Bank doesn't have to write the Chancellor explaining why inflation is over 3%. 3/4

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It's good that food was the category making the biggest downwards contribution, with food inflation falling from 3.0% to 2.2%. The elephant in the room is that the old (lower) energy price cap is still feeding in here (as it will in the June data out next month). 2/4

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4

A chart showing the contribution to changes in CPI by category. Transport is driving inflation up. Communications is marginally doing the same. Education and health have a neutral effect, while the other eight categories are driving this downwards, with food having the largest downwards influence. The net effect of all these changes are that inflation is stable.

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Interesting policy fellowships: www.ukri.org/opportunity/.... Two I'd highlight: 1. DWP to develop evidence of the causal links between experience of poverty and subsequent outcomes. 2. DfT on transport poverty and how improving transport affordability and connectivity.

ukri.org

Sector transition: UKRI policy fellowships 2026

Apply for this sector transition fellowship to transfer knowledge and skills across academic and policy sectors and increase sector porosity.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Just left #CHASMConference2026. Lots of food for thought about dimensions of insecurity, their interactions and the role of power and agency in how lives play out. Follow @chasm-uob.bsky.social for more insights and thanks to everyone involved.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Great thread from @rachelcasey.bsky.social. One of the key messages is don't forget the role of childhood poverty in any discussion of what's needed to reduce the number of NEETs.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

This led to the UK falling to 20th place out of the 21 high-income countries, whereas in 2011, we were in (still a pretty poor position of) 14th.

A horizontal bar chart showing healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries in 2011 and 2021. Japan had the highest healthy life expectancy in both years, while the United States had the lowest in both years. The UK has now got the next lowest healthy life expectancy when in 2011 it was in 14th place, a drop of 6 places.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.

A horizontal bar chart showing the change in healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries over the decade to 2021. Norway and Japan saw the biggest improvements of an extra year of healthy life, while the United States saw the biggest fall of over 2 years of healthy life. The UK saw a fall of 8 months.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Join us! This is a very important role, working with some brilliant analysts (and others!)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

We may yet see a fall from 3.3% in the April data (out in May) because of falls in the April energy price cap, and falling wage growth and a fading impact from higher employer NICs causing a falling inflation rate in services. But sadly the predicted return to ~target level won't happen.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Thanks Dan, you are right of course, although our work around March's fiscal forecast shows flatlining incomes going forward too: www.jrf.org.uk/income-savin...

Chart showing income growth from 2019/20 to 2024/25 and then a forecast from 2025/26 to 2030/31. Average household annual income after housing costs in 2029/30 is forecast only be £160 higher than a decade earlier, a rise of just 0.4%.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.3% over 17 months to February 2026.

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These modelled estimates assume a lifetime in one deprivation decile. Moves between areas with different deprivation levels aren’t reflected. Notwithstanding this, gaps are very large, and the slope across deciles large too.

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Life Expectancy Calculator by Age, Sex & Deprivation

Want to look at variation in life expectancy for someone your age/sex? Enter your details here to find out: claude.ai/public/artif.... Enter your postcode at imd2025.co.uk/map2025/ to find out what deprivation decile where you live falls into. H/T to Chris Belfield for this.

claude.ai

Calculate your remaining life expectancy and healthy years using England ONS data. See personalized estimates based on age, sex, and IMD deprivation decile.

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Imagine what you can achieve in a year – the gaps we are talking about are multiple years running into decades.

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Less than half of the 30.7 years would be spent in good health, compared to almost three-quarters of the 39.7 years, a gap of 14 years in terms of healthy years of life.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years made up of 14.2 years of good health and 16.5 years of poor health, compared to 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live made up of 28.5 years of good health and 11.2 years of poor health.

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There are gaps at all ages. A man my age (45-49) has 30.7 years of life expectancy in the most deprived tenth of areas but 39.7 years in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years, 9.0 years less than the 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live.

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And this is getting worse over time. The same boy born in 2013 would have 2 more years of healthy life (an even worse drop of 4 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that
a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 2.3 years less than the 52.1 years a boy born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.
a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 4.0 years less than the 52.2 years a girl born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.

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Gaps in healthy life expectancy are even bigger. That same boy will have 19.4 fewer years of good health compared to someone born in the least deprived tenth of areas (it’s 20.3 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that
a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 19.4 years less than the 69.2 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.
a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 20.3 years less than the 68.5 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.

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A girl born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas can expect to live 8 years fewer than a girl born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 78.3 years, 8.1 years less than the 86.4 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 72.3 years, 10.4 years less than the 83.6 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

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This is what ONS data says. Highest unaffordability in London, South East, South West and East, worsening since 2022. As paper says, private rent rises for individuals can be very spikey, going up irregularly during tenures and a lot when tenant leaves. (PS: all authors live in the South of England)

Ratio of rents to earnings by region, showing London, South East, South West and East have a greater than 30% ratio of average private rents to average full-time earnings.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

This is a precis of an excellent paper from @jelliott94.bsky.social, Rosie Worsdale and Ruby Blower at JRF. Do skim the thread or better still, read the paper.

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Numbers of children growing up in poverty should fall from April 2026 because the 2-child limit has ended, a much-needed improvement. Our projections show stats flatline after that, so more is needed to continue to drive child poverty downwards and reduce overall poverty. 7/7

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These are the first set of results using benefits data linked to survey responses, the most significant change in methods in a generation, which JRF welcomes, but better measurement helps to accurately quantify the scale of the issue rather than improve anyone’s situation. 6/7

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Household incomes rose between 2023/24 and 2024/25 after adjusting for inflation, both before and after housing costs across most of the income distribution. Exception was incomes in bottom decile after housing costs, which fell slightly and remain below 2021/22 levels. 5/7

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Despite a welcome fall in the latest year of data, 3.1 million people have very low food security, meaning they went hungry because of a lack of money. This is still more than 40% higher than in 2021/22. 4/7

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Looking at the picture by country and region, poverty is highest in London and lowest in Northern Ireland. In the latest year, London and Wales have seen increases in both overall and child poverty, while the West Midlands and South West have seen reductions. 3/7

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5.5 million people in poverty were in a family containing a disabled person, 4 in 10 of all people in poverty. If benefits there to pay the extra costs of disability are excluded from income, this rises to almost half, with a quarter of people in those families in poverty. 2/7

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