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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4

A chart showing the contribution to changes in CPI by category. Transport is driving inflation up. Communications is marginally doing the same. Education and health have a neutral effect, while the other eight categories are driving this downwards, with food having the largest downwards influence. The net effect of all these changes are that inflation is stable.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

This led to the UK falling to 20th place out of the 21 high-income countries, whereas in 2011, we were in (still a pretty poor position of) 14th.

A horizontal bar chart showing healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries in 2011 and 2021. Japan had the highest healthy life expectancy in both years, while the United States had the lowest in both years. The UK has now got the next lowest healthy life expectancy when in 2011 it was in 14th place, a drop of 6 places.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.

A horizontal bar chart showing the change in healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries over the decade to 2021. Norway and Japan saw the biggest improvements of an extra year of healthy life, while the United States saw the biggest fall of over 2 years of healthy life. The UK saw a fall of 8 months.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Thanks Dan, you are right of course, although our work around March's fiscal forecast shows flatlining incomes going forward too: www.jrf.org.uk/income-savin...

Chart showing income growth from 2019/20 to 2024/25 and then a forecast from 2025/26 to 2030/31. Average household annual income after housing costs in 2029/30 is forecast only be £160 higher than a decade earlier, a rise of just 0.4%.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.3% over 17 months to February 2026.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Less than half of the 30.7 years would be spent in good health, compared to almost three-quarters of the 39.7 years, a gap of 14 years in terms of healthy years of life.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years made up of 14.2 years of good health and 16.5 years of poor health, compared to 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live made up of 28.5 years of good health and 11.2 years of poor health.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

There are gaps at all ages. A man my age (45-49) has 30.7 years of life expectancy in the most deprived tenth of areas but 39.7 years in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years, 9.0 years less than the 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

And this is getting worse over time. The same boy born in 2013 would have 2 more years of healthy life (an even worse drop of 4 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that
a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 2.3 years less than the 52.1 years a boy born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.
a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 4.0 years less than the 52.2 years a girl born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Gaps in healthy life expectancy are even bigger. That same boy will have 19.4 fewer years of good health compared to someone born in the least deprived tenth of areas (it’s 20.3 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that
a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 19.4 years less than the 69.2 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.
a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 20.3 years less than the 68.5 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

A girl born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas can expect to live 8 years fewer than a girl born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 78.3 years, 8.1 years less than the 86.4 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 72.3 years, 10.4 years less than the 83.6 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

This is what ONS data says. Highest unaffordability in London, South East, South West and East, worsening since 2022. As paper says, private rent rises for individuals can be very spikey, going up irregularly during tenures and a lot when tenant leaves. (PS: all authors live in the South of England)

Ratio of rents to earnings by region, showing London, South East, South West and East have a greater than 30% ratio of average private rents to average full-time earnings.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25. ⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k ⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k ↔️child poverty stayed flat. More action needed! 1/7

An infographic saying that there were around 13.4 million people were in poverty in 2024/25, a rise of 500,000 in overall poverty between 2023/24 and 2024/25. This was made up of:
4.0 million children (no change)
7.7 million working-age adults [up 300k]
1.7 million pensioners [up 200k]

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.

DWP modelling shows a fall of 400,000 in child poverty over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total. This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.

A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for singles lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £20 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £1,000.

A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for couples lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £50 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £2,500.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

A chart comparing whole economy and private sector regular annual wage growth to CPI and CPIH inflation from September 2024 to December 2025, with the second half of 2025 being based on forecast data. Between December 2024 and December 2025 wage growth is falling, while from September 2024 to September 2025, inflation is rising, such that forecasts for annual private sector wage growth no longer exceeds forecast CPIH by around September 2025 and no longer exceeds forecast CPI by around December 2025.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

As I told the committee, the proportion of pensioners not reaching MIS, which sets out what the public agree is needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living, has actually gone up even faster than the main poverty measure. (2/4)

A chart showing the proportion of pensioners falling below the Minimum Income Standard. This was around 13% in the period 2008-11 (around 1 in 8 pensioners), rising to 19% by 2017/18 (close to 1 in 5 pensioners), before falling back to 15% in 2020/21 (around 1 in 6 pensioners). The proportion of pensioners below the standard rose dramatically between then and 2022/23, currently standing at 24% (close to 1 in 4 pensioners).

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits.

The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut. This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts.

The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.

Stacked bar chart showing that the vast majority of the forecast increase in caseload and expenditure on PIP is from recipients in receipt of both elements (80% of caseload growth, 89% of spend growth) or one at the enhanced rate (increases to 84% of caseload growth, 92% of spend growth).

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

See jrf.org.uk/social-secur... for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis from me looking at the c400 welfare changes (mostly cuts) scored the OBR since 2010. A £6bn cut containing a £5bn PIP cut is unprecedented - and I use that word advisedly.

Horizontal bar charts showing cuts of at least £1.5bn (2025/26 prices) since 2010. The first three are changes in how benefit uprating. The remainder including changes to Universal Credit (including the introduction of the 2-child limit) and removing the Winter Fuel Payments from pensioners not in receipt of Pension Credit.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

The Times today: £5bn/1m = £5,000/disabled person, i.e. greater than 3 of 4 PIP rates. Unless 1 of 2 numbers in headline is wrong, this has to take money away from severely disabled people on PIP higher rate, as lower rate recipients don't get £5,000/yr. Obscene to consider this!

Snip of headline at https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/one-million-britons-disability-benefits-cut-s5kj0z7fcm, saying "1m people to have disability benefits cut by Labour. Rachel Reeves vows to ‘get a grip’ on the burgeoning welfare bill but cabinet ministers express disquiet over £5 billion savings"

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

The figure Iain refers to is one of the most misleading statistics I have seen in 25 years as a professional statistician. It focuses on the rise in UC (dark blue) and ignores existing ESA cases (light blue), when both groups are on sickness benefit.

Chart showing cumulative rise in sickness benefit recipients between February 2020 and August 2024. Universal Credit sickness benefit recipient numbers rose from 330k to 1.6m, Employment and Support Allowance numbers fell from 1.6m to 1.2m, leading to a rise from 1.9m to 2.7m.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Not quite back to 1937, but you can see the gradual decline over 60 years here from @jrf-uk.bsky.social's Guarantee our Essentials Full Report at www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

Chart comparing the value of Universal Credit's standard allowance (and equivalents) to average earnings. The standard allowance was around a third of average earnings in the mid 1960s. It's now less than 15%.

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