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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 19h

1/2) With October looking dry/hot through at least the first several days of the month, some are wondering if that is an early indicator of what we can expect from this #ElNiño heading into our wet season. The simple answer is NO. Cont...

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

October is coming in Hot - Widespread upper 90's and triple-digit Daytime Temperatures across #SoCal by this weekend, with only the immediate Coast and the Mountains being spared. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

HRRR Simulated Radar 9/27/26 - An Approaching upper Low will tap into Tropical moisture, bringing clouds, humidity and a slight chance of showers to #SoCal today. The most Southern and Eastern portions of the region have the best chance for any measurable rainfall. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

GOES West Satellite – 2 Hurricanes are spinning over the Eastern Pacific: Odalis, with sustained winds of 125mph, and Polo, with sustained winds of 180mph. An approaching Low Pressure System will direct moisture from these systems into the Southwestern US early next week, particularly AZ and NM.

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Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher

Alerts from NWS San Diego CA (UNOFFICIAL) @san.nws-bot.us · 24/09/2026

Special Weather Statement issued September 24 at 2:18PM PDT by NWS San Diego CA Additional Details Here.

At 217 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hwy 74 Between Mountain Center And Anza, or near Anza, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anza, Hwy 74 Between Mountain Center And Anza, Mountain Center, Hwy
74 Between Anza And Palm Desert, Cahuilla Indian Reservation, Lake
Hemet, and Santa Rosa Mountain.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

1/3) 12z Euro 9/24/26 - As an upper Low approaches #SoCal this weekend, it may shear off some moisture from Tropical Storm Odalys and advect it into the region by Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo is expected to take a right turn into Southern Baja/Northwest Mexico. #CAwx Cont...

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Warm temperatures expected across #SoCal through the remainder of the week - 80's to low 90's along the Coastal Plain, low to mid 90's Inland Valleys & High Deserts and triple digit heat in the Low Deserts. Temps cool off a bit early next week. #CAwx

NWS NDFD Temperature Map for Southern California for Friday 09/25/26.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Astronomical Fall begins at 5:05PM Pacific Time today. Meteorological fall began on September 1st. 🍁 That rainfall we received earlier this month from remnants of Tropical Storm Marie? That gets tallied for #SoCal's 2025-26 season. The 2026-27 Water year begins on October 1st. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Mild September weather will continue across most #SoCal locations as we head into the weekend, with daytime temps along the Coastal plain in the low to mid 80's and Valley locations mid to upper 80's. A weak upper Low moves across the area on Sunday strengthening the Marine Layer. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Doppler Radar as of 1:21pm 9/8/26 - A cluster of Thunderstorms in the Santa Barbara Channel are putting out lots of Lightning. These cells are drifting Northeast towards the Coastline of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties and should come ashore later this afternoon. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Composite Radar as of 10:30AM 9/8/26 - Moisture from Tropical Storm Marie continues to affect portions of #SoCal. A batch of heavier Showers and Thunderstorms just offshore are heading into Western LA & Eastern Ventura Counties.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

The ECMWF seasonal ensemble has just updated for September, and it continues to suggest that a soon record-strength El Niño will exert a very strong tilt in the odds toward wet conditions across the U.S. southern tier, including all of California, the Lower Colorado, and SE U.S.

Plot showing data from ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal model September update. It depicts the most likely "tercile" of precipitation during Jan-Mar 2027, and California is painted as "upper tercile" with 70-100% confidence.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

A peek at Rainfall totals as of 5am 9/7/26 - The heaviest Rainfall has occurred along a corridor from Western & Northern LA County into Western San Bernardino County, with Santa Barbara and SD Counties seeing very little rain. Additional scattered showers will add to these totals today. #CAwx #SoCal

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Composite Radar as of 10:30am 9/7/26 - Scattered Showers continue across #SoCal from the deep moisture streaming Northeast off of Tropical Storm Marie. Showers and possible Thunderstorms will continue today, followed by drier and hotter weather the remainder of the week. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

HRRR Simulated Radar through Sunday PM - An approaching Trough will drag moisture from Tropical Storm Marie into #SoCal, bringing cloudy skies & showers. Generally light amounts are expected, although there will be locally higher amounts from embedded heavier cells & Thunderstorms. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Latest Model Guidance for this Weekend - #SoCal locations will see anywhere from sprinkles to some steady showers. Most areas will receive less than 0.25", while a few locations could get over 1/2" between Sat PM/Sun PM as there may be some isolated Thunderstorms in this warm, humid airmass. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Today's Model runs aren't looking too impressive for rainfall amounts over Labor Day Weekend across #SoCal, but we will be dealing with a very moist airmass, so showers could pop up anywhere across the region Sun-Mon with a chance for a Thunderstorm in the Inland Valleys, Mountains & Deserts. #CAwx

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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

What a remarkable view. A hurricane trio in the Pacific. Lowell, Karina and Marie.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

A majority of Ensemble solutions depict Marie taking a path due West out into the Pacific this weekend. SW flow aloft from an approaching Trough will likely direct some of Marie's moisture into #SoCal, bringing clouds, humidity and a chance for some showers to the region over the weekend. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

1/3) Lots of buzz going around today about Tropical System "Marie" impacting #SoCal a week from now. Frankly, Models are all over the place (12z GFS shows 10"+ rainfall over Ventura County and 12z Euro depicts the storm tracking out into the Pacific with only modest moisture reaching SoCal) Cont..

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A Trough will approach the West Coast and bring some relief to #SoCal through much of next week, with daytime Temperatures across Metro Areas ranging in the mid to upper 80's. Clouds and moisture from Tropical systems passing to our Southwest may keep humidity levels elevated at times however. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

GOES West Satellite 3:01PM 8/27/26 - Moisture from the decaying Tropical system "Iselle" is streaming NE across #SoCal, bringing increased humidity and a chance for Showers & even a Thunderstorm. GOES GLM Lightning sensor is detecting some lightning strikes within this plume of moisture aloft. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

HRRR Simulated Radar through Fri 8/28/26 - Moisture from former Hurricane Iselle will stream across #SoCal from the Southwest Thurs & Friday, bringing partly cloudy skies & a chance for sprinkles or an isolated shower, with best chances from Western LA County Northward as well as Mts/Deserts. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Remnants from Tropical Storm Iselle will bring partly cloudy skies and an uptick in humidity Thursday-Friday, with a chance of Mtn/Desert storms and possibly sprinkles or a stray shower across #SoCal Coastal/Valley areas. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Our #SoCal heatwave will continue with widespread triple-digit heat across the region through the remainder of the week. By late this weekend an approaching trough will bring a cooling trend, & by next week we should be seeing daytime Temps a few degrees below average. Hang in there! #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

#SoCal heat is expected to peak on Thursday, with very hot daytime temperatures from the Deserts all the way to the Metro areas along the coastal plain. Only the higher elevations of the Mountains and locations along the immediate Coast/Beaches will offer a reprieve from triple-digit heat. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

HRRR Simulated Radar through this evening 8/24/26 - There's enough moisture and instability aloft over #SoCal for Thunderstorms over the Mts/Deserts. Mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles over LA/OC/SD Coastal areas this afternoon.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

HRRR Simulated Satellite through 36hrs: Remnants of last night's Thunderstorm complex in AZ are drifting West into #SoCal with some instability aloft, and will trigger showers over local Mts/Deserts and possibly some sprinkles or a brief shower in the Coast/Valleys this evening before clearing out.

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Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Given rising interest in the rapidly strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, I've created a one-page fact sheet succinctly describing what El Niño is, this year's (remarkable) forecast, and potential impacts from California to global scales. [Thread]

JPEG version of a 1-page Factsheet: El Niño 2026-2027: A Potentially Historic Global Climate Event
By Daniel Swain, PhD | August 2026

There is a banner image depicting projected warming of the Pacific Ocean by early winter.

The content begins:
"What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle, known as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that occurs roughly every 2-7 years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño events, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms to well above typical levels. El Niño directly affects local climate in the countries closest to the unusually warm ocean waters, but can also indirectly influence the climate of distant regions thousands of miles away. During the strongest events, El Niño can profoundly affect climate even on global scales, causing temporary planetary warming and disrupting large-scale precipitation patterns..."

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Another warm week across #SoCal with triple-digit heat in the Valleys and Deserts, 90's in the Metro areas and 80s at the Beaches. Thursday will be the warmest day. Monsoon moisture will return to the region by the weekend bringing T'storm chances to the Mts/Deserts. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Composite Radar as of 5:14PM, 8/10/26 - Some strong Thunderstorms are moving across I-40 and I-15 through the Mojave Desert. Another batch of cells are drifting Northwest across Imperial and SD County. Some of these cells are capable of frequent lightning and briefly heavy downpours. #SoCal #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Monsoon activity has been limited across #SoCal over the last 30 days, but Arizona - particularly the higher terrain, has received significant rainfall. Thunderstorms are possible across SoCal Mts/Deserts over the next few days before an approaching Low brings drier Southwest flow aloft. #CAwx.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

SE flow aloft will continue across #SoCal this weekend, with chances for afternoon Thunderstorms across local Mts/Deserts. Later next week an upper Low is expected to develop to our West, potentially drawing up moisture from our South for increased chances of Mountain/Desert storms.

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Reposted by SoCal Weather Watcher

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA winters (!).

Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation by tercile status (i.e., most likely well above, well below, or near-average). All of the CA coast is painted the brightest color, indicating 70-100% odds of a winter among the wettest third of all historical winters.

Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the bluest color, indicating well below average odds of a winter in the driest 20% of all winters.

Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the brightest orange color, indicating well above average odds of a winter in the wettest 20% of all CA winters.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

NAM Model's Simulated Radar hints at some Thunderstorm development over San Bernardino and San Jacinto Mountains this afternoon as well as over higher elevations of San Diego County. A slight chance for the #SoCal Deserts today as well.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

High Pressure will build over the West Coast bringing very hot temperatures to #SoCal this weekend into next week. The position of the Ridge is not favorable for Monsoon moisture for SoCal. Models suggest conditions will be favorable for a return of Monsoon moisture by the 2nd week of August. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

From NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC on X): —— Tuesday key messages for Western U.S. Heat Wave.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

An intense and long-duration heatwave now appears likely by late Jul/early Aug for SW U.S., including California. Extreme heat is likely in hottest inland deserts, and a potentially dangerous combination of heat & elevated humidity may develop in SoCal. More to come. #CAwx #AZwx

Map of predicted 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) from the ECMWF ensemble across the Western U.S. Extremely anomalous positive (warm) GPH is depicted across the Southwest, including California and Arizona.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Composite Radar as of 12:10pm 7/26/2026 - Mid-level moisture continues to stream across #SoCal from the South today, with the chance for some sprinkles or even a brief shower. Heavier cells are drifting across interior SD County and Low Deserts at the moment. #CaWx

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Growing signs of prolonged & potentially intense heatwave across SW by early Aug. A broad Four Corners ridge will strengthen far beyond usual levels on its western flank, possibly due in part to indirect effects from a yet-to-develop East Pacific hurricane. Details TBD. #CAwx

Forecast from ECMWF ensemble showing 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) around early August. They are highly anomalously positive across the SW US.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Composite Radar as of 4:40pm 7/20/26 - Monsoonal moisture aloft is moving West across #SoCal. Some of these showers surviving the drier air below on the way down, resulting in some sprinkles and even a brief shower at some locations. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

With Monsoon clouds & moisture exiting the area, temperatures will increase across #SoCal, with mid/upper 90's across LA/OC Metro areas and triple-digit heat in the Inland Valleys and Deserts on Wednesday & Thursday. Monsoon moisture likely returns to the region next week. #CAwx

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Jan Null, CCM @ggweather.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Over the past month, the weekly RONI 3.4 has been tracking right along with 1997, the warmest of the other strong/very strong El Niños at this point in the season.

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Composite Radar as of 12:10pm 7/13/26 - Scattered showers embedded in the moist Monsoon flow are moving Northwest across interior portions of #SoCal. Thundershowers are possible in Mts/Deserts and Inland Valleys today. Chance of a stray shower in Coastal areas as well. #CAwx

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Along the western flank of the gigantic interior west-central U.S. ridge, monsoonal moisture will surge northwestward across California and the Great Basin. This could bring some initially dry thunderstorms, including over parts of CA (slight chance coastal areas), Sun-Mon. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

NAM Simulated Satellite depiction through Sunday - Monsoon moisture will stream aloft over #SoCal this weekend, peaking Sun/Mon for a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms across local Mts & Deserts & a slight chance along Coastal Areas. Otherwise, expect mid/high clouds and increased humidity #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Observed measurements of the Niño 3.4 region (black line) have been meeting or exceeding CFSv2 Ensemble guidance since Spring. And CFS continues to adjust the peak upwards for Nov/Dec. Will definitely be watching to see how this will impact West Coast & #SoCal weather this Winter. #CAwx

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SoCal Weather Watcher @socalwxwatcher.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Summer heat for #SoCal this week. By Sunday, Southeasterly flow aloft will transport Monsoon into the Southwest, bringing a chance for Showers/Thunderstorms to Mts & Deserts. Any disturbances embedded in this flow could trigger storms West of the Mountains. Something to keep an eye on. #CAwx

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