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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

My forecast finds something similar:

Map of 24-->26 swing as per my Senate forecast

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Thanks to new polling, my model now rates the Kansas senate race as a Tossup. Marshall still has the slight advantage, with a 57.3% chance of winning.

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Points, 10/7/2026 Iowa (Tossup): 10.7% chance of being the tipping point state Michigan (Tossup): 10% Texas (Lean D): 9.7% Ohio (Tilt D): 9.1% South Carolina (Tossup): 8.2%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/7/2026 Kansas: Tilt R --> Tossup

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/7/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 63% (🔺1.5%) 🔴Republicans: 37% (🔻1.5%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.8 (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 48.2 (🔻0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Senate forecast map (win probabilities by state), October 7, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/7/2026 IA-03: Lean D --> Likely D IN-05: Lean R --> Tilt R MI-10: Tilt D --> Lean D NC-06: Safe R --> Very Likely R NC-09: Likely R --> Lean R

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/7/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 81.3% (🔺0.4%) 🔴Republicans: 18.7% (🔻0.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 240.1 (🔺0.4) 🔴Republicans: 194.9 (🔻0.4) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

SnoutCounter House forecast map (win probabilities by congressional district), October 7, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Most Likely House Tipping Points, 10/6/2026 NC-11 (Lean D): 3.1% chance of being the tipping point seat FL-22 (Likely D): 2.9% MI-10 (Tilt D): 2.9% ME-02 (Tilt D): 2.7% VA-01 (Lean D): 2.6%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - House Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/6/2026 CA-06: Very Likely D --> Safe D IN-05: Tilt R --> Lean R WA-03: Likely D --> Very Likely D

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/6/2026 (with new polling incorporated) Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 80.9% (🔻0.1%) 🔴Republicans: 19.1% (🔺0.1%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.7 (🔻0.1) 🔴Republicans: 195.3 (🔺0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

House forecast map, October 6, 2026 (with new polling incorporated)

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Points, 10/6/2026 Michigan (Tossup) - 10.5% chance of being the tipping point state Iowa (Tossup) - 9.6% Texas (Lean D) - 9.3% Ohio (Tilt D) - 9% South Carolina (Tossup) - 8.6%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday (10/6/2026) Kansas: Lean R --> Tilt R New Hampshire: Very Likely D --> Safe D Texas: Tilt D --> Lean D

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/6/2026 (with new polling incorporated) Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 61.5% (🔺2.4%) 🔴Republicans: 38.5% (🔻2.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.7 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 48.3 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Senate forecast map, October 6, 2026, with new polling incorporated

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I've updated my polling averages with the YouGov/Economist and Centerline polls, and will be updating my forecasts for them as well

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lunaria/sapphire @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

For the purposes of my polling averages and forecasts, I'll be utilizing the loose LV screen over the strict screen for YouGov polls from here on out

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Most Likely House Tipping Points, 10/6/2026 NC-11 (Lean D) -- 3.1% chance of being the tipping point seat FL-22 (Likely D) -- 2.9% MI-10 (Tilt D) -- 2.8% ME-02 (Tilt D) -- 2.7% VA-01 (Lean D) -- 2.6%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday (10/6/2026) AZ-08: Likely R --> Very Likely R IN-05: Tilt R --> Lean R TX-32: Likely R --> Very Likely R

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/6/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 80.6% (🔻0.4%) 🔴Republicans: 19.4% (🔺0.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.4 (🔻0.4) 🔴Republicans: 195.6 (🔺0.4) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

House forecast map (win probabilities), October 6, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Point, 10/6/2026 Michigan (Tilt D) - 11.4% chance of being the tipping point Texas (Tilt D) - 11.3% Iowa (Tossup) - 9.7% Ohio (Tilt D) - 9.3% South Carolina (Tossup) - 8.5%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

SnoutCounter Senate Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/6/2026 Michigan: Tossup --> Tilt D New Hampshire: Very Likely D --> Safe D

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/6/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 59.3% (🔻0.1%) 🔴Republicans: 40.7% (🔺0.1%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.5 (no change) 🔴Republicans: 48.5 (no change) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Point, 10/5/2026 Michigan (Tossup) - 11.3% chance of being the tipping point Texas (Tilt D) - 11.3% Iowa (Tossup) - 9.7% Ohio (Tilt D) - 9.1% South Carolina (Tossup) - 8.5%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/5/2026 (no rating changes today) Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 59.4% (🔺0.1%) 🔴Republicans: 40.6% (🔻0.1%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.5 (no change) 🔴Republicans: 48.5 (no change) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Most Likely House Tipping Points, 10/5/2026 NC-11 (Lean D) -- 3.1% chance of being tipping point seat FL-22 (Likely D) -- 3% MI-10 (Tilt D) -- 2.9% ME-02 (Tilt D) -- 2.7% VA-01 (Lean D) -- 2.6%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/5/2026 IN-05: Lean R --> Tilt R

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/5/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 81% (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 19% (🔻0.1) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.8 (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 195.2 (🔻0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday

Map of win probabilities by congressional district as per SnoutCounter House Forecast, October 5, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Points, 10/4/2026 Texas (Tilt D) - 11.4% chance of being the tipping point state Michigan (Tossup) - 11.3% Iowa (Tossup) - 9.7% Ohio (Tilt D) - 9% South Carolina (Tossup) - 8.5%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/4/2026 (no rating changes today) Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 59.3% (🔺0.1%) 🔴Republicans: 40.7% (🔻0.1%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.5 (no change) 🔴Republicans: 48.5 (no change) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Win probabilities by state as per SnoutCounter Senate forecast, October 4, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Most Likely House Tipping Points, 10/4/2026 NC-11 (Lean D) -- 3% chance of being the tipping point seat FL-22 (Likely D) -- 2.9% MI-10 (Tilt D) -- 2.8% ME-02 (Tilt D) -- 2.7% VA-01 (Lean D) -- 2.6%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/4/2026 AZ-08: Very Likely R --> Likely R OH-07: Tilt D --> Tossup TX-32: Very Likely R --> Likely R WI-01: Tilt R --> Tossup

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/4/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 80.9% (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 19.1% (🔻0.2) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.7 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 195.3 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday

Map of win probabilities by congressional district as per SnoutCounter House Forecast, October 4, 2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Most Likely Senate Tipping Points, 10/3/2026 Michigan (Tossup) - 11.5% chance of being the tipping point Texas (Tilt D) - 11.3% Iowa (Tossup) - 9.7% Ohio (Tilt D) - 8.9% South Carolina (Tossup) - 8.4%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Most Likely House Tipping Points, 10/3/2026 NC-11 (Lean D) -- 3.2% chance of being the tipping point FL-22 (Likely D) -- 2.9% ME-02 (Tilt D) -- 2.8% MI-10 (Tilt D) -- 2.7% VA-01 (Lean D) -- 2.7%

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Senate forecast update, 10/3/2026 (no rating changes today) Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 59.2% (🔺0.6%) 🔴Republicans: 40.8% (🔻0.6%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 51.5 (🔺0.1) 🔴Republicans: 48.5 (🔻0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities by state for SnoutCounter Senate forecast 10/3/2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

SnoutCounter House Forecast - Rating Changes from Yesterday, 10/3/2026 NM-02: Very Likely D --> Safe D

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

House forecast update, 10/3/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 80.7% (no change) 🔴Republicans: 19.3% (no change) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 239.5 (🔻0.1) 🔴Republicans: 195.5 (🔺0.1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)

Map of win probabilities by congressional district as per SnoutCounter House forecast 10/3/2026

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SnoutCounter @snoutcounter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

If I had to guess, probably combination of good polling + the candidate-level random effect. sqrt(effn) is still somewhat low so AK-Sen is still relying significantly on fundamentals here, and my model finds that Peltola significantly overperforms benchmarks, so that's likely affecting it

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