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Silvia Merler

@smerler.bsky.social
2.1K followers 300 following 62 posts

Head of Policy Research - Algebris Investments Non-Resident Fellow - Bruegel Think Tank Adjunct Lecturer - Johns Hopkins SAIS Views obviously my own

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Data centres are dominating both the economic and political discourse in the US. About 19% of new proposed and permitted sites are on quiet ground, against 3% of operating ones. Our last Algebris report looks at the politics of data center noise. www.algebris.com/policy-resea...
algebris.com
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Dark political clouds are gathering over Europe. Against this background, the #SOTEU26 paints an EU eager to reach outwards, while still soul-searching on internal policy dimensions. A difficult balancing exercise; but an important one. My latest ⬇️ www.algebris.com/policy-resea...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Europe has never entered September with this little gas in store. 2026 is no 2022, but the math of EU gas storage is getting tighter, against the background of enduring geopolitical disruptions. Our latest ⬇️ www.algebris.com/policy-resea...
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Reposted by Silvia Merler
Bruegel @bruegel.org · 28/07/2026
🏗️ Building the best safe asset 🗣️ Agnès Bénassy-Quéré in conversation with host @rebeccawire.bsky.social, @smerler.bsky.social and @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social on The Sound of Economics 🎙️ Listen to the podcast now: buff.ly/xxzZNK4
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
We look at the recently proposed overhaul of the EU Emission Trading System. The reform paints a softer ETS for what is expected to be a harder decade, but does not rid the system of policy uncertainty. As such, the signal may get lost in yet more political noise. www.algebris.com/policy-resea...
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Reposted by Silvia Merler
Bruegel @bruegel.org · 15/07/2026
👂️Want to learn more? Check out our latest podcast, "Building the best safe asset", where host @rebeccawire.bsky.social sits down with @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & @smerler.bsky.social to talk about common European debt & the idea of a 'safe asset'. 🔗 buff.ly/TwfZMOO
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Does hiking off reputational concerns now expose Lagarde to the risk of a “Trichet moment”? For sure, ECB communication around the rationale for hikes has been confused (and confusing). www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Lagarde Sees No Need for More Forceful ECB Response to Iran War
The European Central Bank doesn’t need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict because inflation is set to return to target over the medium term, President Christine Laga...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Kevin Warsh takes over the Federal Reserve today. He inherits an energy shock and Jerome Powell, who stays on the board. Warsh’s view of Al as "structurally disinflationary" may turn out to be right as concept but wrong on timing. It will be interesting to watch. www.instagram.com/p/DY0JubCkd9...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 The world’s two largest economies meet. On the agenda: investment, Taiwan, tech, Iran and - obviously - tariffs and trade. www.instagram.com/p/DYSHkNCjOV...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The European Commission published its energy crisis plan (AccelerateEU) which is being discussed at the summit of EU leaders taking place on April 23/24. Read more ⬇️ www.instagram.com/p/DXhCOdJjLm...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
As the Strait remains closed, jet fuel prices are the first line of disruption. Read more at ➡️ www.instagram.com/p/DXWtCE9DNY...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Three recent prominent books in economic policy, which I liked reading and recommend. Full discussion at: www.instagram.com/p/DXRhDGxDLB...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Two striking findings from the IMF World Economic Outlook just published - looking at who pays the cost of war and how big the macroeconomic impact of conflicts is. Full explainer on my IG ➡️ www.instagram.com/p/DXMUoKqDLh...
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Reposted by Silvia Merler
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 13/04/2026
NEW: The theory that the dollar's status as the world's dominant reserve currency is a main driver of America's large & persistent current account deficits is wrong, Maurice Obstfeld writes.
piie.com
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
US March CPI recorded the largest monthly jump since June 2022 - entirely driven by energy. At the same time, consumer confidence hit a historic low and nominal wages grew at the slowest pace since May 2021. The Iran shock is squeezing real incomes, and putting the Fed in a difficult position.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Is this the same Commission who argued it was imperative to scale back the EU sustainability regulatory framework via the Omnibus, because green tape was supposedly killing European competitiveness?
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
A wild day in energy markets, with Brent breaking through $119 before dropping below $90 on Trump’s comments hinting at a potential offramp. The conflict has pushed oil prices almost 30% above baseline - to be seen whether this reversal proves stable.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Want to know why Europe lags in innovation? Exhibit 1: less than 5% the EU Innovation Fund established in 2021 has been paid out, because companies spend up to 3’000 hours and an average 85’000€ in administrative costs to apply. Economic death by paperwork. www.ft.com/content/0797...
ft.com
Companies swamped by 3,000 hours of paperwork to tap EU climate funds
Of the €7.1bn awarded from the bloc’s flagship innovation programme for clean tech, only 5% has been paid out
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Reposted by Silvia Merler
Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
The fifth #CERditchley panel, chaired by Yasmine Moezinia was on ‘Will Europe risk its (capital) markets taking off?’ with Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, @smerler.bsky.social, @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social and Alexander Plekhanov
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union. www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
bruegel.org
Sudden stops in the euro area
Internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and a wake-up call to reform euro area structures
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Thank you to Jon Hay for featuring my comments in this extensive article on the UK’s decision to scrap plans for a Green Taxonomy. Great insights also from the other people quoted in the piece! www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...
globalcapital.com
UK scraps Taxonomy, stakes green reputation on credible transition
Transition plans and disclosure rules will be central to UK’s bid for sustainable finance leadership
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
My latest, on the recent notice by the European Commission on defence investment in the sustainable finance framework.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
The international monetary system is changing before our eyes. Germany and Italy pressed to bring gold home from US; a survey of more than 70 global central banks showed more were thinking of storing their gold domestically amid concerns about ability to access it. www.ft.com/content/e393...
ft.com
Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US
Trump’s attacks on the Fed and growing geopolitical risks reignite public debate about repatriating bullion
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Great piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com in today’s FT. As I wrote back in April, the EU’s best response to Trump’s tariffs would be to issue more EU debt. My preference however is for ramping up genuine EU debt issuance, not settling for synthetic asset solutions. www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
bruegel.org
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
The return of volatility: the S&P 500 has gained or lost at least 1% in seven of the past 10 sessions, and April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020. www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
wsj.com
Huge Stock Swings Are the New Normal for Frazzled Investors
April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’ - but that will require “additional integration” he says (and a step up in EU issuance, says I) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the euro could become an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency if Europe increases its integration efforts.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Latest US inflation numbers surprised to the downside, but the University of Michigan survey points to 12-month inflation expectations at 6.7%, and above 4% for the next 5 years. Powell previously dismissed it as an outlier, but important to watch for role of the $. www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...
reuters.com
US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April
U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
It may seem counterintuitive to issue more debt during a crisis. But in a world where US economic policy is unpredictable, safe asset diversification suddenly has value. And the EU’s best response to US tariffs is to issue more debt. My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
bruegel.org
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
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Reposted by Silvia Merler
Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
"The EU should thus move to fund the entire cost of its planned rearmament with EU debt, similarly to NGEU." @smerler.bsky.social on the global role of the euro in light of American chaos. www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
bruegel.org
More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs
The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
All eyes in the market are on China. So far, China is going for a strategy of being the adult in the room: *US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN *US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS *NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Dollar down on a massive trade protectionist shock is something that will go in the macroeconomics handbooks for the next generations: *EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Ma tribune dans L’Opinion, sur les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable ⬇️ www.lopinion.fr/internationa...
lopinion.fr
« Simplification ou dilution ? Les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable »
La simplification du reporting dans l’Union européenne entraînera une réduction de l’information disponible et introduira des distorsions sur le marché de la finance durable.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
🔎 I’ve been asked many times whether EU sustainable finance rules are holding back EU defence financing. The short answer is that the regulatory constraints are not that tight, but self imposed reputational restrictions are tighter. The longer answer is ⬇️ www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...
bruegel.org
Sustainability rules are not a block on EU defence financing, but reputational fears are
To mobilise private capital for weapons, the European Commission should clarify the status of defence investing in its sustainable finance framework
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Many thanks to Philippa Nuttal for featuring my thoughts in her must read @sustainableviews.bsky.social piece on the Omnibus. The bottomline is that sustainability-minded investors have reasons to be worried. www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...
sustainableviews.com
EU omnibus: ‘The uncertainty is killing everything’
The EU Commission’s proposals may have found favour with many in business and industry, but sustainability-minded investors are worried At a glanceThis week, the first debate was held in the European...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The narrative for markets going into the US election was that Trump may be bad for the world, but was certainly good for America. That’s starting to change, as massive policy uncertainty threatens the myth of American exceptionalism. 🧶 1/ algebris.com/algebrisbull...
algebris.com
The Algebris Bullet | The Myth of Exceptionalism - Algebris Investments
Download The sweeping Republican victory in US elections revived the American dream. President Trump would be a positive disruptive force for America. Active fiscal policy and tariffs would boost inte...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Chronicle of a death foretold.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
German Bund reacts to the historic announcement of up to 800€ billion in military and infrastructure spending - which quite frankly trumps the EU RearmEU plan.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
🔎 Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance In this @bruegel.bsky.social First glance I highlight two key risks for both the European Green Deal and sustainable finance present in the first Omnibus package. 🔗 buff.ly/eKbn6t2 #EconSky
buff.ly
Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance
EU reporting simplification will result in less information and introduce distortions in the sustainable finance market
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
So far, Taxonomy-linked green bonds have been largely issued by already green companies, in sectors where demonstrating greeness is easier. In my view, this shows the Taxonomy framework doesn’t lend itself naturally to be used for transition finance. #Econsky 🔗: www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
‼️ How to improve the EU’s sustainable finance framework In this @bruegel.bsky.social Policy brief, I look at market data and identify weaknesses that risk undermining the EU's sustainable finance framework. I also offer 5 recommendations for improvement. 🔗 Available now! buff.ly/41eSpDy #EconSky
buff.ly
How to improve the European Union’s sustainable finance framework
Five adjustments would make the EU sustainable finance framework more effective at delivering the desired alignment of incentives
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
“The US innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates” has become a catchphrase among those bemoaning Europe’s weak growth. How should Europe respond to the wave of anti-ESG backlash that is underway in the US? My 2 cents here @bruegel.bsky.social www.bruegel.org/first-glance...
bruegel.org
How should the EU react to the US attack on corporate sustainability?
The European Union should continue to push companies on net-zero alignment, but pragmatic changes can help ease burdens and maintain EU leadership
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Equity futures down following the announcement of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China over the weekend. The euro also not liking the idea that Europe will most likely be next on the list.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
As incoming US President Trump calls for Canada to join the US and doesn’t rule out taking Panama and Greenland by force, how should Europe respond? The best piece I read today is this one, by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and @gpapak.bsky.social ⬇️ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/g...
project-syndicate.org
Global Cooperation in the Age of Trump | by George Papaconstantinou & Jean Pisani-Ferry - Project Syndicate
George Papaconstantinou & Jean Pisani-Ferry suggest how global commons and interdependencies can be managed in the absence of a responsible superpower.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
The gap in performance between the S&P 500 and the S&P Global Clean Energy, which opened up with the rates hikes, widens further towards the end of the year as uncertainty grows on the global green policy drive.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
An interesting element that doesn’t get nearly enough talk is the extra-territoriality of EU climate regulation. Foreign firms will be brought in scope of CSDDD if they work in the value chain of EU firms. That can have major political implications. Here’s e.g. Qatar not being very subtle about it ⬇️
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
In an environment where politicisation and ideological polarisation on sustainable investing keep growing, the policy gap between the two side of the Atlantic seems bound to widen. www.ft.com/content/f19c...
ft.com
New ‘anti-woke’ ETF makes Starbucks its first target
Azoria Partners launches new fund at Donald Trump’s Florida resort
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Poll run by Le Point shows 54% of respondents want President Macron to resign and a presidential election to take place in 2025. This is going to get interesting… www.lepoint.fr/politique/ex...
lepoint.fr
SONDAGE EXCLUSIF. Une majorité de Français souhaitent la démission d’Emmanuel Macron
D’après un sondage Cluster17 pour « Le Point »,les Français apparaissent profondément divisés sur la censure du gouvernement Barnier, reflétant l’incapacité des partis à fédérer leur électorat.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Things you don’t see everyday: on the fall of Barnier’s government, the French yield curve moved above the Greek one, all the way up to the 10y.
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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Follow the @bruegel.bsky.social crowd down here ⬇️💙
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