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Stephen Marrin

@smarrin.bsky.social
335 followers 324 following 44 posts

Full Prof at James Madison University & Director of Intelligence Analysis program. Former CIA analyst. Editor of journal Intelligence & National Security www.tandfonline.com/journals/fint20

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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New article published: Malcomson, S. L. (2026). Origins of British-American cooperation in political intelligence, 1914–1919. Intelligence and National Security, 1–28. doi.org/10.1080/0268...
doi.org
Origins of British-American cooperation in political intelligence, 1914–1919
While British-American intelligence cooperation in World War One has recently received important scholarly attention, the specific phenomenon of cooperation in political intelligence, as distinct f...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
New article on Analytical capacity for national security (in Norway) by Alfa Sefland Winge as published in the journal Intelligence and National Security, here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Analytical capacity for national security
Geopolitical instability challenges established alliances, creating new weaknesses and threats to national security. This article uses literature of intelligence and governance to study how organis...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
New article titled "The Soviet intelligence illegals program in the face of counterintelligence pressure: the case of the United States and Canada" by Kevin Riehle published in the journal Intelligence and National Security , at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The Soviet intelligence illegals program in the face of counterintelligence pressure: the case of the United States and Canada
Post-World War II Soviet intelligence illegals operations in the United States and Canada started strong in the 1940s and 1950s. However, as they experienced increasing counterintelligence pressure...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
See link below for call for papers for a special issue of the journal Intelligence and National Security on the topic of Psychology and Intelligence. For details, please contact Nicole Drumhiller at nicole.drumhiller@gmail.com Thanks! www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
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Andrew Defty @adefty.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
I was interested in these comments from lead BBC weather presenter Simon King today about the forthcoming storm in the UK and the balancing of technology and human judgment when assessing risk. Parallels with intelligence analysis? @smarrin.bsky.social
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Melanie Brand @melaniebrand.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We are hiring! @mqsois.bsky.social is currently recruiting a full time, ongoing Lecturer Level B in Cyber Security and Cyber Intelligence. This is a Teaching & Leadership position and could be a great opportunity for an early career academic. More info here: www.seek.com.au/job/88616507
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland" by Hannah West at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland
Women were employed to operate covertly with British security forces and paramilitary organisations during the Troubles in Northern Ireland (1968–1998). However, the experiences and legacies of Bri...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
New article titled "A country with “its own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War" by Michelle Walker, published in Intelligence and National Security at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
A country with “its own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War
In the early years of the Second World War, rising workplace discontent, perceived communist influence, and war weariness sparked a suite of investigations into civilian mood and behaviour in the v...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
New (free to access) article published in Intelligence and National Security titled: "Veiled intentions: Hamas’s strategic deception and intelligence success on 7 October 2023 by Muhanad Seloom at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
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James Barr @jamesbarr.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
From @jonathanrugman.bsky.social’s Killing In The Consulate
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
New article titled "The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage" by Stephen Matthew Elin, published in Intelligence and National Security: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage
Quantitative intelligence analysis often leans on pattern recognition; in adversary-shaped settings, such correlations can be engineered. Building on Judea Pearl’s structural causal models – origin...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
New article published in Intelligence and National Security (open access) by Peter de Werd titled "The value of engaged critique: civic intelligence oversight and the freedom of information in the Netherlands" www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
tandfonline.com
Intelligence and National Security
Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...
tandfonline.com
Intelligence and National Security
Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security
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The Society for Intelligence History @socintelhist.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Please join us in congratulating @smarrin.bsky.social and Hamilton Bean. Both just hit 2,000 citations, but that's only a small measure of their contributions to Intelligence Studies. scholar.google.com/citations?us... scholar.google.com/citations?us...
scholar.google.com
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
This is another reason that demanding the admin make the case for war to Congress and the US public is so important: to make sure the admin has stress tested not just the goals, but also the operational arrangements (including veto-power over Israeli operations), and also that it has an exit plan.
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
"This is what we were voting for!" From a friend in academia: >>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<< Great work.
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Filip Kovacevic @chekistmonitor.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
Two thumbs up for Kevin Riehle's new book on #counterintelligence. Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence. Hope #FBI Academy got a copy. www.rienner.com/title/Counte...
rienner.com
Lynne Rienner Publishers | Counterintelligence at Its Core Assessing and Preventing Foreign Espionage
Lynne Rienner Publishers, celebrating 35 years of independent publishing, is known for its cutting-edge, high quality scholarly and academic books and journals in politics, social sciences, and the hu...
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Alt National Park Service @altnps.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
This is how authoritarian governments operate: They don’t just ignore the truth they demand that others rewrite it to suit their goals. And in this case, the cost is real human lives migrants being deported under false pretenses, denied basic legal rights, and sent into danger.
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Good article about intelligence analysis here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | What happens when honest intelligence work can get you fired?
The U.S. appears to be on the verge of finding out.
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Not good. The IC provides analysis independent of policy preferences. When those in power do not want to hear inconvenient facts & unwanted interpretation & punish messengers that provide it, that undermines the reason the IC was created in the first place www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Gabbard fires leaders of intelligence group that wrote Venezuela assessment
The director of national intelligence fired top officials weeks after their group authored an assessment contradicting President Donald Trump’s legal rationale for deporting alleged Venezuelan gang me...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum" by Ged Hiscoke, Stephen Ward & Daniel Lomas at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum
Intelligence agencies operating in modern-day liberal democracies are dependent on the public for support. In recent years, the UK’s intelligence and security agencies have adopted a public facing ...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
New article on British intelligence history written by Bruce Berkowitz and published in Intelligence and National Security titled "William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence" with link here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence
William Playfair (1759–1823) pioneered several ideas accepted as fundamental to intelligence today, including compilations of national capabilities and covert economic warfare. Known primarily as a...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
New RAND report on intelligence studies research titled "Furthering Intelligence Research: How the National Intelligence University Can Fill Critical Gaps for Intelligence Research" here: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Furthering Intelligence Research
This report addresses the differences between research and intelligence analysis, what intelligence research has been and should be done, and how the National Intelligence University can make research...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
New article published in Intelligence and National Security titled "Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament" by Tapio Raunio at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament
Legislatures are increasingly investing resources into oversight of intelligence agencies. However, effective control of intelligence is wrought with challenges: while national security is a highly...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
RIP Robert Sinclar--author of CIA's "Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis." "He was one of the founding members of the CIA Canoe Pool, commuting to the CIA's Langley, VA offices by canoe across the Potomac River" www.legacy.com/us/obituarie...
legacy.com
Robert Sinclair Obituary (1934 - 2025) - Arlington, VA - The Washington Post
View Robert Soutter Sinclair's obituary, send flowers and sign the guestbook.
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
From Thomas Boghardt: "The International Intelligence History Association has issued a call for their intelligence history book prize 2025. For more information, see: intelligence-history.org?p=1521
intelligence-history.org
Intelligence History Book Prize 2025
We are delighted to announce our call for nominations for the Intelligence History Book Prize 2025. The prize is worth € 1,000 and will be awarded by the International Intelligence History Associat…
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
Call for papers for Israeli intelligence studies conference (28-29 October 2025), with proposals due 31 July 2025. See details below...good opportunity for intelligence studies scholars and practitioners here!
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
New article published, titled "NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?" by Grigorij Serscikov, at the journal Intelligence and National Security, here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?
This study examines the evolving challenges faced by intelligence operatives, particularly Non-Official Cover (NOC) officers and illegals, in the context of modern surveillance technologies. With a...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
This might be a great example of analytic intelligence failure due to what looks like it not only analytic error but analytic fraud
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Flashback [Spoiler: special prosecutor recommended charges for gross negligence in mishandling national defense information]
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Call for papers for intelligence studies conference in Turkey on 10-12 October 2025 in Ankara, Turkey. It is organized by Turkey's National Intelligence Academy. Additional details here: mia.edu.tr/sayfa-call-f...
mia.edu.tr
Call for Papers - MİA
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ACADEMY INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INTELLIGENCE STUDIES – CALL FOR PAPERS The National Intelligence Academy - Türkiye (NIA
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Marc Polymeropoulos @mpolymer1.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Seems important www.spiegel.de/internationa...
spiegel.de
Hegseth, Waltz, Gabbard: Private Data and Passwords of Senior U.S. Security Officials Found Online
Donald Trump's most important security advisers used Signal to discuss an imminent military strike. Now, reporting by DER SPIEGEL has found that the contact data of some of those officials, including ...
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Flying Mezerkis @bananapantz.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Fear of retaliation for witnessing someone being disappeared from the streets for speech.
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Phil Gurski @borealissaves.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Trump administration cuts national database tracking domestic terrorism www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
washingtonpost.com
Trump administration cuts national database tracking domestic terrorism
The database, run out of the University of Maryland, was funded by a $3 million DHS cooperative agreement, went dark on Tuesday after the Trump administration made sweeping cuts to violence prevention...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Call for papers for intelligence studies conference in Turkey on 10-12 October 2025 in Ankara, Turkey. It is organized by Turkey's National Intelligence Academy. Additional details here: mia.edu.tr/sayfa-call-f...
mia.edu.tr
Call for Papers - MİA
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ACADEMY INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INTELLIGENCE STUDIES – CALL FOR PAPERS The National Intelligence Academy - Türkiye (NIA
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
New article on "Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis" by Mandeep K. Dhami, Jessica K. Witt & Peter De Werd, published in the journal Intelligence and National Security here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis
We compared the probability terms used by Western intelligence organizations against two visual encoding channel-based representations of uncertainty (i.e. darkness and thickness). Analysts were mo...
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Amanda Katz @katzish.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Based on this fast and excellent WaPo reporting, these four guys are not gang members, just Venezuelan dads who came to the US to work. They’re now being paraded in shackles in El Salvador www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...
washingtonpost.com
For four Venezuelan friends, Alien Enemies Act cuts short an American dream
President Donald Trump used the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans accused of being gang members. Relatives of men sent to El Salvador deny the allegation.
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IntelArchive @intelarchive.io · 16/03/2025
New addition Journal article: Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis by Mandeep K. Dhami, Jessica K. Witt, Peter De Werd (published 15-03-2025) doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2025.24680…
doi.org
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Article by Thomas Fingar (former Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis) on "Optimizing intelligence support: guidelines for policymakers and intelligence analysts" as published in the journal Intelligence and National Security, here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Optimizing intelligence support: guidelines for policymakers and intelligence analysts
Analysts and policymakers are on the same team but have different roles and responsibilities. Intelligence is a support activity that provides information and insight to national security decision ...
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Mark Stout @markstout.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Apropos of nothing, there's an interesting piece in this issue of The Bulletin of the Canadian Foreign Service Forum giving a first-person account of a Canadian military policeman in Tehran who was involved in the Argo/houseguests situation and the good work he did to help get our diplomats out.
forumdiplocan.ca
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petercgrace.bsky.social @petercgrace.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
We have a cover! My thanks to Georgetown University Press for their hard work. Photo of the "father of intelligence analysis" Sherman Kent in a very un-pc pose!
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
I'm honestly running out of words I can use on the air to describe what's happening in and to this economy
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Article titled "Improving Intelligence Studies as an Academic Discipline" available here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Improving Intelligence Studies as an Academic Discipline
As the field of intelligence studies develops as an academic complement to the practice of national security intelligence, it is providing a base of knowledge for intelligence practitioners to inte...
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Article titled "Intelligence Studies Centers: Making Scholarship on Intelligence Analysis Useful" at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Intelligence Studies Centers: Making Scholarship on Intelligence Analysis Useful
Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Intelligence studies as an academic discipline is not very theoretical compared to the more established d...
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
This is unexpurgated Great Replacement Theory. Pure conspiratorial racism.
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Amanda Katz @katzish.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Okay, wait, did Trump exempt his own alma mater (UPenn), Barron’s current undergrad (NYU), and Eric’s undergrad and Tiffany’s law school (Georgetown) almost uniquely (besides Dartmouth — am I forgetting someone who went there?) out of this tier of schools? Because that is kind of hilarious
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Stephen Marrin @smarrin.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
This RUSI commentary was written by a faculty member (Gian Pili) and 2 undergraduates from JMU's Intelligence Analysis Program rusi.org/explore-our-...
rusi.org
Russia’s God of War - The Political and Military Power of Artillery
Russia's artillery has profound strategic and psychological effects, and its use through history has signalled the nation's resolve in warfare. The use of artillery in Ukraine has echoes of the past, ...
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Larry Pfeiffer @larrypfeifferdc.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Ratcliffe is sacrificing the future of CIA--firing recent hires creates a talent gap that will ultimately need to be filled. But now the pipeline will narrow as exceptional people look elsewhere for jobs. He not only looks like Michael Scott of The Office, he manages like him. Sigh.
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