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Sinan Ciddi

@sinanciddi.bsky.social
670 followers 77 following 231 posts

Associate Professor, Security Studies Marine Corps University, CSC | Non-Resident Senior Fellow on Turkey @FDD | Adjunct Professor @georgetownsfs

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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
The S-400 was never 🇹🇷's only problem. ZTE owns ~48% of its top telecom integrator. Huawei runs its mobile networks. Reinstating 🇹🇷 into the F-35 program means flying 🇺🇸 most guarded jet through a network 🇨🇳 can tap at will. Our piece for @thecipherbrief.bsky.social with Jack Burnham
thecipherbrief.com
Ankara's Charm Offensive Should Not Buy Back the F-35
The choreography in Ankara last week was impressive, even by Recep Tayyip Erdogan's standards. Cannons fired, mounted honor guards paraded, and jets flew overhead trailing red, white, and blue smoke a...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
If your “solution” to the S-400 crisis is simply changing the shipping address, you’re solving 🇹🇷 political headache—not 🇺🇸 security dilemma. Congress should reject any backdoor attempt to revive the F-35 deal through a Gulf transfer. My latest for FDD w/my colleague Tyler Stapleton
fdd.org
Selling the S-400 to Qatar or the UAE Solves Turkey's Problem, Not Washington's
Turkey’s decade-long standoff with Washington over the S-400 may finally be nearing an inflection point, though not in the tidy way Ankara once imagined, and not without a fresh dose of frustration...
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
“There’s a difference between an illiberal democracy and a hybrid regime. There’s a difference between a hybrid regime and full-bore authoritarianism and a single-party state.” My comments in the NY Sun, along with my friend @sinanciddi.bsky.social www.nysun.com/article/in-n...
nysun.com
In NATO Summit at Ankara, Turkey’s Deepening Crackdown on Dissent Was the Unspoken Issue | The New York Sun
President Trump and European leaders kept their attention focused elsewhere even as Turkey fills its jails with critics and opposition figures.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Trump leaves Turkey without authorizing F-35 sales to, Erdogan says, "Watch this space." Such a move would have run counter to existing US laws and sanctions. I spoke to Brittany Lewis on Forbes for Foundation for Defense of Democracies
youtube.com
Trump Says US Will Lift Turkey Sanctions, 'Consider' Selling Them F-35s—That's A Bad Idea: Expert
YouTube video by Forbes Breaking News
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
NATO is a collective alliance that safeguards the security of all its members. It is not a body created to further one autocrat’s irredentist vision. The Trump administration should remember that before approving F-35 sales to 🇹🇷 My latest for FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
We are hiring @FDD for the 🇹🇷 program Come work with me!
fdd.org
Jobs and Internships
...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Washington appears to be moving forward to sell jet engines to 🇹🇷 Call me ignorant, but this seems like a particularly unwise move, given the almost daily news that details Ankara's support of terrorism My latest for @FDD with @AhmadA_Sharawi www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
fdd.org
Hamas Haven Provided by Turkey Fuels Terror in the West Bank
Israel’s Shin Bet security agency announced that it had foiled dozens of planned terror attacks in the West Bank directed by Hamas operatives in Turkey over the past year. According to the agency,...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
"The message in Ankara should be clear: 🇹🇷 is a NATO ally, but membership carries obligations. It cannot be used to justify strategic freelancing, Islamist patronage, maritime coercion, or democratic repression" My latest for The National Interest
nationalinterest.org
Don’t Let Turkey Hijack the NATO Summit
NATO leaders must make it clear to Turkey that it cannot be a NATO member and pursue a foreign policy that undermines the alliance.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
My latest for the Jerusalem Post, I argue "Erdogan’s regime may be more brittle than it seems. But frailty does not guarantee openings. Sometimes it breeds regimes more ruthless in repression, more wary of rivals, more willing to demolish the last channels for peaceful change"
jpost.com
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is dismantling Turkey’s last democratic safeguards | The Jerusalem Post
A court ruling targeting the CHP shows how Turkey's institutions now serve power rather than democratic change.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
"What is unfolding is no longer simply democratic backsliding. It is the deliberate use of state power to ensure political competition no longer poses a genuine threat to Erdogan's rule" My take on the decapitation of 🇹🇷 main opposition CHP for FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Since (at least) 2023, I have (reluctantly) argued that Erdogan will not leave office through elections The 5/21 decapitation of CHP’s elected leadership was the final indicator In my latest for the National Interest, I outline the grave consequences👇for 🇹🇷
fdd.org
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ‘Decapitation Strike’ on Turkey’s Opposition Party
In April 1960, Turkey’s second president, Ismet Inonu, and leader of the founding Republican People’s Party (CHP), issued a stern warning to the ruling Democrat Party (DP): Now, the revolution...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
In my latest for The National Interest, I argue 🇹🇷 PMC "SADAT is fundamental to Turkish leaders’ desire for military power and Islamist influence in Africa and maintains a presence in nine states across the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Maghreb"
fdd.org
SADAT: Turkey’s Wagner Group
Excerpt Turkey’s use of private military actors has become an increasingly important—if opaque —feature of its foreign policy toolkit. Among these, SADAT International Defense Consultancy stands...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
My latest Insight piece w/my FDD colleague Jonathan Schanzer “The job of the 🇺🇸 ambassador to 🇹🇷 is not to make Ankara feel validated; it’s defend U.S. interests, uphold alliances, and confront a partner whose policies have repeatedly empowered America’s adversaries”
fdd.org
America’s Ambassador to Turkey Is Undermining U.S. Interests
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised eyebrows last weekend at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum when he stated, “Turkey is not a country to be messed with,” –– a remark intended to blame Israel...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
My first piece for JP w/ FDD colleague Natalie Ecanow ends nonsensical portrayals of 🇹🇷 as a "difficult" ally As we argue "the danger lies not in exaggerating Ankara’s ambitions, but in continuing to excuse them while they erode the very alliance structures that have long sustained Western security"
jpost.com
Is Turkey becoming a Middle East adversary to the West? | The Jerusalem Post
Turkey’s growing regional influence and ties to Hamas challenge NATO and US security.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
In what ways does 🇹🇷 Erdogan regime support the Muslim Brotherhood? @hayeytan tells me on FDD Morning Brief You can also read our new Memo, titled: "Islamist Turkey: A Base for Muslim Brotherhood Jihadism" for complete details👇 www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
I've long heard that Erdogan and the AKP are "Muslim Brotherhood" But what does that mean? What are Erdogan and 🇹🇷 ties to the Brotherhood, and more importantly, what action should the 🇺🇸 take? Read my latest FDD memo (report) w/ William Doran
fdd.org
Islamist Turkey: A Base for Muslim Brotherhood Jihadism
"Illustration by Lilia Gaufberg/FDD"
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
If Trump decides to sabotage NATO, that is very, very bad for Turkey. Link is from 2024 www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-turkey-re...
worldpoliticsreview.com
Turkey’s Glee Over Trump’s Victory May Be Short-Lived
Turkey’s President Erdogan is optimistic that Trump will be an easier partner than Biden. He may be disappointed.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🇹🇷 has many demands from 🇺🇸: F-35s, engines, sanctions relief... What is it offering the in return? Certainly no help with the Iran war 🇹🇷 has a sizable navy and mine clearing capabilities. Trump should demand co-operation My latest for @washingtonexaminer.bsky.social
washingtonexaminer.com
Turkey is the NATO ally Trump should pressure first
Turkey takes U.S. aid, dodges U.S. asks, and still wants F-35s. If Trump wants NATO reciprocity, Ankara is the place to start.
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Dr Dion Georgiou 🇨🇾❤️🇬🇾 @drdiongeorgiou.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
'Storm clouds in the East Med? Turkey's escalation in Cyprus, Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, and Imamoglu's trial', w/ @thanosdavelis.bsky.social, @sinanciddi.bsky.social, Elisa Ewers, @liselhintz.bsky.social & Henri Barkey, on @kathimerini.gr & HALC's The Greek Current podcast.
open.spotify.com
Storm clouds in the East Med? Turkey's escalation in Cyprus, Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, and Imamoglu's trial
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Turkey has made it clear that it does not want to be dragged into the Iran war, but it has red lines What are those? I explain in my latest for The National Interest
fdd.org
Turkey's red lines in Iran conflict
As Iranian missiles enter Turkish airspace, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan must define Ankara's red lines to balance national security and political stability.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
The administration moves to quietly kill the biggest Iran sanctions evasion scheme –– a move that lets Halkbank off the hook I joined @klasfeldreports.com on @legalafmtn.bsky.social to talk about why 🇹🇷 gets a pass & what this means for "maximum pressure on Iran" 📺 www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7-P...
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Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
"Storm clouds in the East Med? Turkey's escalation in Cyprus, Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, and Imamoglu's trial" with @sinanciddi.bsky.social, Elisa Ewers, @liselhintz.bsky.social and Henri Barkey hosted by @thanosdavelis.bsky.social. [4/5]
thegreekcurrent.simplecast.com
Storm clouds in the East Med? Turkey's escalation in Cyprus, Israel's offensive against Hezbollah, and Imamoglu's trial | The Greek Current
Sinan Ciddi, Elisa Ewers, Lisel Hintz, and Henri Barkey join Thanos Davelis this week as we take a closer look at Turkey’s decision to deploy fighter jets to the occupied part of Cyprus, Israel’s esca...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
@ustreasury.govmirrors.com sanctions a fresh batch 🇹🇷 entities 🔥Ghazi Destek Dernegi (GDD), 🔥Hayat Yolu, 🔥Palestinian White Hands Assistance and Solidarity Association for providing "significant material support to Hamas"
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
@sinanciddi.bsky.social, @stevenacook.bsky.social, and Henri Barkey on Turkey's role and goals in the context of the US/Israeli War on Iran. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jgh...
youtube.com
Between Ally and Adversary: Turkey’s Strategic Calculus in the Iran War
YouTube video by FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Please join us today for an anticipated, timely & necessary discussion on 🇹🇷's Iran calculations, fears and wants I am putting Steven Cook & Henri Barkey in the hotseat TODAY @ 12noon EST👇
youtube.com
Between Ally and Adversary: Turkey’s Strategic Calculus in the Iran War
YouTube video by FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
What are 🇹🇷 calculations in the Iran war? What does it want, fear & want to capitalize on? I spoke to Brittany Lewis on @forbes.com
youtube.com
Turkey Wants To Stay Out Of Iran War— Will The Country Be Dragged In Anyway? Expert Explains
YouTube video by Forbes Breaking News
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
I thought the name of the game was "maximum pressure" on Iran? So why the sweetheart deal for Halkbank? Our latest for @thehill.com w/FDD colleagues @Tyler Stapleton & Max Meizlish
fdd.org
Why is Washington going soft on the Turkish banks enabling Iran’s terrorism?
The Turkish state-owned lender Halkbank has served as a conduit for illicit Iranian financing networks. It was indicted in the U.S. in 2019 for one of the largest sanctions-evasion...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
IRGC targets Turkey with ballistic missile. Erdogan invested a good deal in trying to befriend the Islamic Republic - this is the price he pays for hedging But is this the reason why Ankara may join the war against Iran? William Doran and my latest for The National Interest & FDD
nationalinterest.org
Will Turkey Invade Iran?
Turkey views Iran’s sizable Kurdish population as a potential threat to Turkey’s internal unity.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Live from the studios of FDD is the Morning Brief: Featuring your's truly & none other than the redoubtable 🔥Jon Schanzer🔥 We are talking about everything 🇹🇷 !!! - Who controls TR after Erdowan - Ankara's praise of Tehran - 🇹🇷 militarization of the Horn & PMC's and more...
youtube.com
Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions | feat. Sinan Ciddi
YouTube video by FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
During the Syrian civil war 1000’s 🇹🇷 nationals joined ISIS & over 40K foreign fighters were permitted to transit 🇹🇷’s “jihadi highway” to join the “cause” unhindered Now Ankara has to repatriate its ISIS brethren. My latest for FDD w/Ahmad Sharawi
fdd.org
Turkey Negotiates Repatriation of ISIS Detainees It Once Enabled
After years of serving as a key transit hub for foreign fighters and an enabler of the Islamic State’s (ISIS’s) campaign to establish a caliphate, Turkey is now in negotiations to repatriate its own.....
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Turkey's leadership succession strategy is in full swing Erdogan is building an AKP cabinet to ease Bilal's transition to the presidency This is bad news for 🇹🇷 opposition. Why? Read our latest for @TheNatlInterest & @FDD 👇
nationalinterest.org
Turkey’s Cabinet Reshuffle Sets the Stage for Its Next President
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is laying the groundwork for a dynastic succession—and disposing of democratic institutions that might obstruct it.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Turkey leaves the Board of Peace meeting empty handed. No Turkish troops in the ISF But why was Ankara denied its long-held desire to position troops in Gaza? I explained for @f24debate.france24.com 👇
youtube.com
Board-of-Peace : Trump says members have pledged $7bn to Gaza relief • FRANCE 24 English
YouTube video by FRANCE 24 English
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The Debate - France 24 @f24debate.france24.com · 19/02/2026
Who else will send troops but those invested in Gaza’s security? As Board of Peace summit kicks off, @sinanciddi.bsky.social warns of risks to neighbouring countries. More in #F24Spotlight
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
As Iran continues to decline, how is 🇹🇷 intend to become the region's premier military and political power? I examine Ankara's various strategies & approaches for @emet4u.bsky.social "Talking Turkey: Impediment to Further Progress in the Middle East" youtu.be/Eza1KRLd2dU
youtu.be
Talking Turkey: Impediment to Further Progress in the Middle East
YouTube video by emetonline
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Why is 🇹🇷 throwing the kitchen sink to prevent US military action against Iran? I explain @i24news.bsky.social 👇
youtu.be
Sinan Ciddi on why Turkey is pushing an Iran deal – i24 News
YouTube video by FDD
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Tehran has some bad habits. Chief among them is the regime's nuclear and chemical weapons program Guess which neighboring country is also considering the acquisition of nuclear weapons? My latest for Long War Journal w/my FDD colleague Will Doran
longwarjournal.org
Turkish foreign minister warns of nuclear arms race if Iran gets the bomb
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned on February 9 that Ankara may pursue nuclear weapons if Iran acquires them, signaling a potential shift from rhetorical grievance to a conditional prolifera...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Turkey declares it will not leave Syria If I got a $1 for every time I said this in 2025 and have people not believe me, I'd be a rich man My latest policy brief co-authored w/my FDD colleague Ahmad Sharawi
fdd.org
‘We Don’t Care What Others Say’: Turkey Won’t Withdraw Its Troops From Syria
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler could not have been blunter. “We have no agenda for withdrawing or leaving those areas,” Guler told the Turkish daily Hurriyet when asked whether Turkey...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
NATO ally or Iran enabler? As Tehran teeters, Turkey isn’t helping bring down the mullahs — it’s helping them Erdogan fears a free Iran more than a tyrannical one. Washington must wake up to Ankara’s dangerous game. My latest for NYPost column w/ William Doran
nypost.com
As Iran tensions mount, beware the hidden hand of this two-faced US ‘ally’
The diplomatic tug-of-war over US-Iran negotiations is a win for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s Islamist strongman, who has led a cynical campaign to block military action against Tehran.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
🔥Out tomorrow: February 3 🔥 Who will succeed Erdogan as 🇹🇷 next President? Who are the contenders, what are rules, and what are the implications? FDD's signature research that I have worked on w/ my colleague Will Doran will be available to download 6am EST 2/3
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
If Washington takes military action against the regime in Tehran, 🇹🇷 will work to protect the mullahs Read our latest for Washington Examiner to understand why👇
washingtonexaminer.com
Erdogan chooses the ayatollahs over the Iranian people
The Turkish government is failing to hold the Iranian regime responsible for massacring its own people.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
In my latest policy brief for @FDD I argue “Given the persistence of the Venezuelan regime, Maduro’s personal fate should not constitute grounds for granting Turkey immunity for violations of U.S. sanctions” www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
fdd.org
Turkey’s Strategic Support for the Maduro Regime Deserves Attention
Deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro long had a friend in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition to diplomatic cover, under the Turkish leader, the regime in Caracas received an economic life...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
In our final piece for 2025 for @NewYorkSun my @FDD colleague Will Doran explore 🇹🇷 growing embrace of nuclear-armed 🇵🇰 isn’t benign commerce—it’s strategic positioning. Energy deals, drone production, and...1/2
nysun.com
Erdogan’s Courtship of Pakistan Stirs Fears of a Nuclear-Armed Turkey
Given the two nations' uniquely poor records on counterterrorism and regional aggression, the Ankara-Islamabad ties warrant concern.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
🇹🇷 lashes out at a deepening 🇬🇷 🇨🇾 🇮🇱security partnership born out of the Dec. 22 Jerusalem summit — a move Ankara sees as encirclement, but w/signals a strategic pushback against 🇹🇷 irredentism...1/3 Our latest policy brief for FDD w/Will Doran www.fdd.org/analysis/202...
fdd.org
Turkey Decries Cyprus–Greece–Israel Security Talks
A new “axis of evil” has arisen in the eastern Mediterranean Sea — at least according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s slavish media. The sharp reaction was brought about by a trilateral...
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Reporting that Erdogan wants Putin to take back S-400s. And my question is why would Putin agree to that? The benefits of keeping Turkey and the US at odds is, intrinsically, a win. And was from the moment that Erdogan agreed to purchase them.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
From sheltering narco-barons to engaging in narco-trafficking to 🇪🇺, the government of Erdogan provides a sanctions evasion lifeline for Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela Why is the 🇺🇸 overlooking this? My latest for The National Interest w/ FDD colleague Will Doran
nationalinterest.org
How Turkey Props up Venezuela
The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has provided an unexpected sanctions evasion lifeline for Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuela.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Why is 🇹🇷 at the center of a terrorist financial network, channeling Iranian monies to Hamas? And this is the same country that thinks it deserves F-35's from the 🇺🇸 ? My latest for Long War Journal & FDD
longwarjournal.org
IDF reveals Hamas financial network operating in Turkey
The Israeli military and Shin Bet reported on a Hamas financial network operating in Turkey under direct Iranian supervision and moving hundreds of millions of dollars through Turkish-based money chan...
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Erdogan put Imamoglu in jail. The question is, is Mansur Yavas next? It's clear Erdogan won't stop to crush opposition as he tries to groom his son to succeed him Why does 🇪🇺 still think it can trust this thuggish regime? Our latest for The National Interest with William Doran
nationalinterest.org
President Erdogan’s Decapitation of the Turkish Opposition
The US and NATO need to stand up for what remains of Turkey’s democracy.
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Not mincing my words here in my latest for @breakingdefense.com London's Eurofighter sale is a win for 🇹🇷, but a strategic blunder that history will remember
breakingdefense.com
London’s Eurofighter sale to Turkey: A win for industry, a loss for strategy - Breaking Defense
Approving the sale of Eurofighters to Turkey may have had good optics. but it undermines NATO's collective security, argues Sinan Ciddi from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
My friend @sinanciddi.bsky.social found this old panel discussion of Turkey and human rights from (2012). We were both much younger and much handsomer. The funniest thing about it was the audience was not very happy... Sinan and I were simply too harsh on the AKP www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbpE...
youtube.com
Turkish Democracy: A Model Abroad, Troubled at Home?
YouTube video by Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)
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Sinan Ciddi @sinanciddi.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
2012-one of the very first panels I spoke at in Washington on why Erdogan and the AKP were a threat to 🇹🇷 On the panel, my friend @heissenstat.bsky.social & Amb. Ross Wilson Gulenists in the audience hated the panel and called us "elitists". Back then, it wasn't vogue to critique Erdogan 😀
youtube.com
Turkish Democracy: A Model Abroad, Troubled at Home?
YouTube video by Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)
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