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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 21h

7 goals 6.43 xG 19 shots 34% - chance of the average shot being scored That was England last Saturday. Can they do something similar tonight? Three days ago, England created a large number of big chances against Croatia, 11 with at least 20% chance of a goal. #ENGCZE

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

In all seriousness though, England are a very good team. They were before the last World Cup and they are now. Something has changed in recent years, as illustrated by the team's consistent top-4 world ranking, something which hasn't happened since the early 1970s.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

......to at least the start of this. Or is it real this time? Do we dare to dream?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The "England Hype & Despair Cycle" as featured in the book Soccernomics (@sszy.bsky.social, @simonkuper.bsky.social) This time, it has not taken very long at all to go from this......

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 02/10/2026

Cherki makes it look easy but it's all in the weight and timing of the pass

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 28/09/2026

Another incredible assist for Rayan Cherki wow

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

*Totals only for those chances For me, one of the best insights of expected goals is that one-on-one opportunities generally have somewhere between 25% and 50% chance of being scored. This is very different to the perception of many people whose views almost ignore the presence of a goalkeeper.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I had a go at subjectively estimating xG for Germany's chances in the highlights of last night's match. Mine may be more accurate sometimes and other times off. The commentator felt that Gnabry & Woltemade's big chances should have been scored. In reality, they are less than 50/50.

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

Chris Weatherspoon @cweatherspoon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Many examples of Sir Alex Ferguson's genius but if we're to boil it down to money (because, well, everything else is these days) perhaps his most impressive achievement is in his final 10 years #MUFC were not the highest wage payers in PL once, yet they won the league five times

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

🇩🇪Germany last night 32 shots (vs 1) 5 goal attempts with at least 25% of scoring 3.81 xG (vs 0.01) All of Serbia's opponents have had 40+ touches in their box but Germany created more and bigger chances. Klopp's team also shut Serbia out completely. #GERSER #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#NationsLeague A2 is the first group to become a bit more interesting. The two quarter-final spots are now a three-horse race ahead of leaders Greece hosting the Netherlands this evening. #GRENED

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Trent Alexander-Arnold became right back number 9 for Thomas Tuchel's England last night. Only Reece James and Jarell Quansah have started at right back more than twice during Tuchel's reign. Will Alexander-Arnold join them by starting the next two or will he be replaced? #CROENG

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Inspired by @statman-jon.bsky.social's post about the 400m hurdles becoming more competitive, I wanted to know more. When Ed Moses broke the 400m hurdles world record back in 1980, his time was only 2% slower than the 400m. This rose to 5% but is now back to ~3%. So, what has changed?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

If you missed my post on this, it is linked below: bsky.app/profile/simo...

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I thought that this was interesting but, as I pointed out last week, only one team recording less than 50% possession in a season has finished in the Premier League's top-6 since Leicester were champions in 2016. That's 59 out of 60 top-6 teams using possesion football. www.bbc.com/sport/footba...

bbc.com

Premier League: Is top-flight possession football on way out?

Only 36% of teams with more than 60% possession have won this season in the Premier League. BBC Sport looks at why?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

When Gonçalo Ramos gets his shot on target, it can only be a goal so the post-shot xG is actually 1. His shot is a certain goal. Expected goals are very useful but it is important to be aware when estimates are wrong - as in this situation. 3//

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

However, the actual situation is very different to the average long range shot from this position. As the screenshot shows, Gonçalo Ramos has received the ball from Norway keeper Myland and only has to chip the ball over him to score. This has a VERY high chance of going in. Estimates? 2/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

🧵I am a fan of expected goals but I'm surprised that there isn't really any discussion when public estimates are wrong. An example of this occurred during Norway v Portugal last night. Ramos takes a shot from distance which has a 4% chance of being scored, rising to 6% as it is on target. 1/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

That comment suggests you haven't seen him live, albeit the wink may suggest you have. I have. Nowhere near.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Sommige mensen denken alles beter te weten. Zo irritant.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Natuurlijk. Daarom zijn de comments zo belachelijk.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Great fact from Jurryt here. Ruben van Bommel completes the first case of three generations of the same family to play for the Netherlands after his father Mark and grandfather Bert van Marwijk. omments nit-pick that Van Marwijk isn't RvB's paternal grandfather. Who cares about that?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Portugal, Spain, France and the Netherlands are the top-4 in my all-time Nations League ranking. 8 teams have been in League A in every Nations League. 4 of this year's League A teams - Serbia, Norway, Türkiye & Greece - have spent at least one Nations League in League C. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Nations League A groups are rather unbalanced. 3 of Europe's top-8, Spain, England - both top-4 - and Croatia, together in Group A3 so at least one will end up in relegation play-offs. Portugal the only top-8 ranked team in Group A4. None of Europe's top-4 teams in Group A2. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Chelsea are 4th in terms of the value of the players they are putting onto the pitch this season. Slightly different to wages but highly correlated I would imagine.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Of course it can be done and Arsenal may well be the best example of that. However, that needs a long term strategy which takes time to build.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Why should anyone expect Manchester United to finish in the top-4 if their wage bill is so far behind four other teams? Over multiple seasons - required to minimise things like luck - the relationship between quality of resources and performance is very strong.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Great stuff as always from Andrew. I had wondered whether long range goals were up so it is great to see some numbers on that here. Well worth a follow and obviously his articles are a must-read for anyone who is interested in my stuff.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Indeed, I do know but I haven't made any predictions or conclusions. Just presenting things as they are because I thought they were interesting - particularly Hull as that type of number is never seen over the longer term.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Zooming in on Hull City's 33% possession figure, no team in the last 10 seasons has ended a campaign with a possession number that low. West Bromwich Albion finished 10th with 37% possession in 2016/2017. 4 of the 8 teams with less than 40% possession in the last 10 seasons avoided relegation

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Clubs with less than 50% possession in the Premier League usually finish 7th to 10th at best. West Ham (6th in 2020/2021) were the only team since 2016 to finish in the top-6 with less than 50% possession. Leicester City won the league in 2016 with 43% possession. #Brentfordfc #LUFC #EFC #HCAFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This is market value. I think it depends on where that 100 million difference is falling (in terms of echelons of clubs). However, we will see how this plays out.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Anyone bridging a gap like that - and it may have been smaller last season - would be doing very well indeed, particularly if they can do so consistently over many season The interesting thing for me is how high Brentford are on this. Perhaps surprising to a few?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This isn't spend, it is total player value based on weighting minutes on the pitch this season. Net spend would be very confusing with the promoted teams in the top few net spenders and Spurs, who are bottom, presumably top of that. A 200+ million gap for players on the pitch is huge.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

And this is the other end of the same table. Brighton, Leeds, Everton and Hull outperforming the resources they have at their disposal. #BHAFC #LUFC #EFC #HCAFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Brentford are fielding the most valuable team outside the #PremierLeague Big-6 teams this season. Incredible really. Also, the gap in playing team value from Manchester City to the rest of the Premier League is enormous. #BrentfordFC #MCFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

It really is. Why are they so reticent on a windfall tax? It doesn't seem that hard to me.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Ha ha. Ja, wij ook (wel een stuk langer gebleven - 6 of 7 nummers of zo) maar zonder Metric gebeurd dit niet en Anthems... met Millan en Haines gebeurt bijna nooit. Een erg bijzondere avond - tot onze vertrek rond 22:00.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Manchester United best #EuropaLeague team of the past 10 years? I am playing around with a points system to judge European performance - based on how far each team gets. I'll combine all European competitions when I am happy with it.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Lots of disagreement between odds and statistical models on which teams are going straight through to the #EuropaLeague last-16. #UEL

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Coventry City above Aston Villa and Newcastle United when looking at the quality of chances created and conceded to date. Four games is a bit early but it will be interesting to look at this in about six weeks or so to see if we can unpick the reasons why some teams don't fit.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Why are Union St. Gilloise odds of 8 to finish in the top-8 of this season's Europa League group? Are they fielding their youth team in the competition or something? Anyone know?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Leeds United fully deserve to be where they are in the Premier League. Expected points derived from chances created and conceded suggest 8 points for Leeds so far which is exactly what they have. 5th best attack, 4th best defence, 3rd best combined - after 4 games. #LUFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Yes, that was a hell of a tough start. It looked like it beforehand too. Teams scoring as many goals as Coventry with as big a goal difference as last season have never been relegated (that stat is also on my timeline) but we will see.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Coventry City are the 5th team to open a top flight season with 4 defeats and 0 goals. Surprisingly, two of the previous teams to start this way DID NOT get relegated. Derby County in 1899/1900 finished 6th. Crystal Palace in 2017/2018 finished 11th. #pusb

static.klipy.com

Daniel LaRusso: It Ain't Over Yet

ALT: Daniel LaRusso: It Ain't Over Yet

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

As I was asked this, yes teams needed to satisfy both criteria here. For example, 3 teams have been immediately relegated after scoring 90+ goals in their promotion season: Ipswich 2024/2025 Norwich 2019/2020 Bolton 1997/1998 All had lower goal differences than the threshold in the table.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Best player you have according to market values. Also, Leeds didn't really overpay for him (slight premium but way below the Premier League's 22% average).

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

No team scoring 90+ goals with a goal difference of 49 or more in their Championship promotion season has ever finished lower than 16th in the Premier League the following season. Coventry City scored 97 goals with a goal difference of 52 last season. #pusb

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