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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

🔵During the Premier League's hiatus, Manchester City went from 10th favourites (6-7% chance) to 4th favourites (38%) for relegation after being found guilty of breaking financial rules by the Premier League. As a comparison, Arsenal's chance of going down before today's matches was 0.07%. #MCFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The Premier League is back Hull City overperforming the most Tottenham Hotspur the biggest underperformers Bournemouth bang on pre-season expectation

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The best xG differences during the international window unsurprisingly correlates well with the Nations League A teams who are doing well. As always, those that buck the trend are the interesting ones. Germany for example (or Greece as they are overperforming in the same group). #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

7 goals 6.43 xG 19 shots 34% - chance of the average shot being scored That was England last Saturday. Can they do something similar tonight? Three days ago, England created a large number of big chances against Croatia, 11 with at least 20% chance of a goal. #ENGCZE

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

......to at least the start of this. Or is it real this time? Do we dare to dream?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The "England Hype & Despair Cycle" as featured in the book Soccernomics (@sszy.bsky.social, @simonkuper.bsky.social) This time, it has not taken very long at all to go from this......

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I had a go at subjectively estimating xG for Germany's chances in the highlights of last night's match. Mine may be more accurate sometimes and other times off. The commentator felt that Gnabry & Woltemade's big chances should have been scored. In reality, they are less than 50/50.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#NationsLeague A2 is the first group to become a bit more interesting. The two quarter-final spots are now a three-horse race ahead of leaders Greece hosting the Netherlands this evening. #GRENED

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Trent Alexander-Arnold became right back number 9 for Thomas Tuchel's England last night. Only Reece James and Jarell Quansah have started at right back more than twice during Tuchel's reign. Will Alexander-Arnold join them by starting the next two or will he be replaced? #CROENG

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Inspired by @statman-jon.bsky.social's post about the 400m hurdles becoming more competitive, I wanted to know more. When Ed Moses broke the 400m hurdles world record back in 1980, his time was only 2% slower than the 400m. This rose to 5% but is now back to ~3%. So, what has changed?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

However, the actual situation is very different to the average long range shot from this position. As the screenshot shows, Gonçalo Ramos has received the ball from Norway keeper Myland and only has to chip the ball over him to score. This has a VERY high chance of going in. Estimates? 2/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

🧵I am a fan of expected goals but I'm surprised that there isn't really any discussion when public estimates are wrong. An example of this occurred during Norway v Portugal last night. Ramos takes a shot from distance which has a 4% chance of being scored, rising to 6% as it is on target. 1/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Portugal, Spain, France and the Netherlands are the top-4 in my all-time Nations League ranking. 8 teams have been in League A in every Nations League. 4 of this year's League A teams - Serbia, Norway, Türkiye & Greece - have spent at least one Nations League in League C. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Nations League A groups are rather unbalanced. 3 of Europe's top-8, Spain, England - both top-4 - and Croatia, together in Group A3 so at least one will end up in relegation play-offs. Portugal the only top-8 ranked team in Group A4. None of Europe's top-4 teams in Group A2. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Chelsea are 4th in terms of the value of the players they are putting onto the pitch this season. Slightly different to wages but highly correlated I would imagine.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Clubs with less than 50% possession in the Premier League usually finish 7th to 10th at best. West Ham (6th in 2020/2021) were the only team since 2016 to finish in the top-6 with less than 50% possession. Leicester City won the league in 2016 with 43% possession. #Brentfordfc #LUFC #EFC #HCAFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

And this is the other end of the same table. Brighton, Leeds, Everton and Hull outperforming the resources they have at their disposal. #BHAFC #LUFC #EFC #HCAFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Brentford are fielding the most valuable team outside the #PremierLeague Big-6 teams this season. Incredible really. Also, the gap in playing team value from Manchester City to the rest of the Premier League is enormous. #BrentfordFC #MCFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Manchester United best #EuropaLeague team of the past 10 years? I am playing around with a points system to judge European performance - based on how far each team gets. I'll combine all European competitions when I am happy with it.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Lots of disagreement between odds and statistical models on which teams are going straight through to the #EuropaLeague last-16. #UEL

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Coventry City above Aston Villa and Newcastle United when looking at the quality of chances created and conceded to date. Four games is a bit early but it will be interesting to look at this in about six weeks or so to see if we can unpick the reasons why some teams don't fit.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Leeds United fully deserve to be where they are in the Premier League. Expected points derived from chances created and conceded suggest 8 points for Leeds so far which is exactly what they have. 5th best attack, 4th best defence, 3rd best combined - after 4 games. #LUFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

No team scoring 90+ goals with a goal difference of 49 or more in their Championship promotion season has ever finished lower than 16th in the Premier League the following season. Coventry City scored 97 goals with a goal difference of 52 last season. #pusb

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Including Arsenal - the 10th best Champions League team of the past decade participating this year - eight of that top-10 won on round one. The two which didn't - Atlético Madrid and Inter - were playing other top-10 sides. #ChampionsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pre-Champions League odds mirrored squad values fairly closely...... ......with the exception of the two most valuable squads.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

The 3-match #PremierLeague table leads to many assumptions about the rest of the season. I always find it instructive to look at the previous season at this stage. Of the teams with 2 wins at this stage last season: Only 1 finished in the top-4 1 nearly went down 3 finished outside the top-7

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Of course but the fact is, at least in Premier League football, that teams with the most money perform the best over a reasonable period of time. That period is longer, actually a lot longer, than a single season. I have always liked Michael Mauboussin's luck-skill continuum on this.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Everton's signing of Hayden Hackney was the best buy of the summer in terms of value. Christos Mouzakitis (Hull City) and Piero Hincapié (Arsenal) also signed for €10 million below market value. #EFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Everton have been in the news for their transfer dealings but they did pretty well value-wise, paying below market value for their six summer signings. Hull, Arsenal, Brighton and Crystal Palace complete the top-5 for getting closest to market value. The Premier League overpaid by 22% on average

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Sávio cost Tottenham over €50 million more than his market value Mateus Fernandes wasn't far behind Belgian Lucca Brughmans is the most expensive teenage goalkeeper ever, breaking the previous record (Mike Penders to Chelsea) by €13 million 3 of the 5 most expensive teenage keepers are Belgian

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

🧵The transfer window has shut. We know who spent the most and least and who the most expensive players were but: Which teams paid most above market values? Which players cost the most above their values? Which teams paid closest to current values? Which players were the most under valuation?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Only the promoted clubs have lower squad values than Everton. Less than €100 million between Newcastle in 7th (see yesterday's post) and Nottingham Forest in 13th. Which teams will overperform their resources? Which will underperform? #EFC #NUFC #NFFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Manchester City have the most valuable squad in the Premier League, overtaking Arsenal during the transfer window. Will the eventual top half of the Premier League come close to this ranking?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Pre-season, Aston Villa were projected to get NINE points fewer than last season's 65. After only two matches, the current forecast is that Villa will get 15 points less than last term, a drop of 23%!!! Is this an overreaction? #AVFC @avfcstatto.bsky.social

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

It's amazing how much some markets can move after a single round of matches at the beginning of the season. The number of expected points for Brentford has increased by 14% and their chance of finishing in the top-4 has more than doubled.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

5 successive seasons without Chelsea, Manchester United or both in the Premier League top-5. Are there really reasons why this won't be repeated this season? Which club will be this term's "surprise" top-5 finisher? #CFC #MUFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

💸Arsenal have 5 of the 20 most valuable centre backs in the Premier League. Can you name any of the other top-20 centre backs?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

It is incredible how much change there is in Premier League teams from one season to the next. - 6 changes per starting XI on average since last year's opener - Newcastle made NINE if you are interested in the number of changes your own team made, or any more detail, just let me know.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

‼️The Premier League's opening weekend hadn't produced a result as unlikely as Hull's win against Manchester United since 2017. There have been only two less likely opening weekend wins in the last 20 years. #hcafc

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Most season predictions suggest that all three promoted teams will be relegated at the end of this Premier League season - but historical trends disagree. One or two promoted teams have been relegated in 79% of Premier League seasons. Expect at least one of Coventry, Ipswich and Hull to survive.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Football’s most unimaginative prediction - Coventry City 18th….Ipswich Town 19th….Hull City 20th - is popular this year. This century, all three promoted teams have gone down in the exact order of their Championship season…once. Leicester....Ipswich Town....Southampton 24/25 #PremierLeague #EPL

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

As to the question of whether they are contenders, well yes, they are in the last eight of a 48-team World Cup, putting them into the top sixth of the teams. However, as I apped to a friend earlier it will be very tough to even reach the final.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

The Balogun red card is surely not controversial. as is being reported? Intentional or not doesn't come into it surely? This is a red card every day of the week for me. It is a similar story with the Belgium penalty. You can't just manufacture controversy because you don't like the result.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

World Cup match highlights from public broadcaster @nieuws.nos.nl are being uploaded to YouTube with spoilers in the title. Some of us would like to watch spoiler free highlights of night games when we get up. Any chance of that?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

I have been reading @simonkuper.bsky.social's excellent book World Cup Fever, detailing his experiences at nine tournaments. A highly recommended accompaniment to World Cup viewing. He shares 'not being able to drive' with me apparently - something which I have never experienced as a handicap.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Copied this over from the other place as @topofthemoongw.bsky.social doesn't seem to have posted it here yet. Very clear overview of all scenarios for Super Saturday

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Tonight there is a #ChampionsLeague match between the top two teams in the world - Arsenal and Bayern Munich. Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid. www.euroclubindex.com

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

💷England have averaged 33.2 points per match over their last 10 matches against top opposition and conceded 17.8. England's attack hasn't been this good over 10 matches since 2019. The defence hasn't been as good as this since 2021. @englandrugby.bsky.social @samlstandsup.bsky.social

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

🌹England Rugby Attack: Under Jones good to very good but began to decline 2021 - 2022. Improving again now under Borthwick. BUT Defence: Problems started in 2020 and increased to the point where Jones was sacked. Now as bad as it was in the days of Robinson/Ashton/Johnson. #SixNations

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

44 shots in PSV v Utrecht on Saturday, 21 on target. 34-10 and 18-3 to PSV. Final score: 2-2. Utrecht led 2-1 and also missed an enormous chance (see screenshot) to win it at the end. Went for the near post but put it wide. The Eredivisie can be wild sometimes.

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