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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 2h

Trent Alexander-Arnold became right back number 9 for Thomas Tuchel's England last night. Only Reece James and Jarell Quansah have started at right back more than twice during Tuchel's reign. Will Alexander-Arnold join them by starting the next two or will he be replaced? #CROENG

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 12h

Inspired by @statman-jon.bsky.social's post about the 400m hurdles becoming more competitive, I wanted to know more. When Ed Moses broke the 400m hurdles world record back in 1980, his time was only 2% slower than the 400m. This rose to 5% but is now back to ~3%. So, what has changed?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I thought that this was interesting but, as I pointed out last week, only one team recording less than 50% possession in a season has finished in the Premier League's top-6 since Leicester were champions in 2016. That's 59 out of 60 top-6 teams using possesion football. www.bbc.com/sport/footba...

bbc.com

Premier League: Is top-flight possession football on way out?

Only 36% of teams with more than 60% possession have won this season in the Premier League. BBC Sport looks at why?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

🧵I am a fan of expected goals but I'm surprised that there isn't really any discussion when public estimates are wrong. An example of this occurred during Norway v Portugal last night. Ramos takes a shot from distance which has a 4% chance of being scored, rising to 6% as it is on target. 1/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Great fact from Jurryt here. Ruben van Bommel completes the first case of three generations of the same family to play for the Netherlands after his father Mark and grandfather Bert van Marwijk. omments nit-pick that Van Marwijk isn't RvB's paternal grandfather. Who cares about that?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Portugal, Spain, France and the Netherlands are the top-4 in my all-time Nations League ranking. 8 teams have been in League A in every Nations League. 4 of this year's League A teams - Serbia, Norway, Türkiye & Greece - have spent at least one Nations League in League C. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Nations League A groups are rather unbalanced. 3 of Europe's top-8, Spain, England - both top-4 - and Croatia, together in Group A3 so at least one will end up in relegation play-offs. Portugal the only top-8 ranked team in Group A4. None of Europe's top-4 teams in Group A2. #NationsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Why should anyone expect Manchester United to finish in the top-4 if their wage bill is so far behind four other teams? Over multiple seasons - required to minimise things like luck - the relationship between quality of resources and performance is very strong.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Great stuff as always from Andrew. I had wondered whether long range goals were up so it is great to see some numbers on that here. Well worth a follow and obviously his articles are a must-read for anyone who is interested in my stuff.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Clubs with less than 50% possession in the Premier League usually finish 7th to 10th at best. West Ham (6th in 2020/2021) were the only team since 2016 to finish in the top-6 with less than 50% possession. Leicester City won the league in 2016 with 43% possession. #Brentfordfc #LUFC #EFC #HCAFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Brentford are fielding the most valuable team outside the #PremierLeague Big-6 teams this season. Incredible really. Also, the gap in playing team value from Manchester City to the rest of the Premier League is enormous. #BrentfordFC #MCFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Manchester United best #EuropaLeague team of the past 10 years? I am playing around with a points system to judge European performance - based on how far each team gets. I'll combine all European competitions when I am happy with it.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Lots of disagreement between odds and statistical models on which teams are going straight through to the #EuropaLeague last-16. #UEL

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Coventry City above Aston Villa and Newcastle United when looking at the quality of chances created and conceded to date. Four games is a bit early but it will be interesting to look at this in about six weeks or so to see if we can unpick the reasons why some teams don't fit.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Why are Union St. Gilloise odds of 8 to finish in the top-8 of this season's Europa League group? Are they fielding their youth team in the competition or something? Anyone know?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Leeds United fully deserve to be where they are in the Premier League. Expected points derived from chances created and conceded suggest 8 points for Leeds so far which is exactly what they have. 5th best attack, 4th best defence, 3rd best combined - after 4 games. #LUFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Coventry City are the 5th team to open a top flight season with 4 defeats and 0 goals. Surprisingly, two of the previous teams to start this way DID NOT get relegated. Derby County in 1899/1900 finished 6th. Crystal Palace in 2017/2018 finished 11th. #pusb

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Daniel LaRusso: It Ain't Over Yet

ALT: Daniel LaRusso: It Ain't Over Yet

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

As I was asked this, yes teams needed to satisfy both criteria here. For example, 3 teams have been immediately relegated after scoring 90+ goals in their promotion season: Ipswich 2024/2025 Norwich 2019/2020 Bolton 1997/1998 All had lower goal differences than the threshold in the table.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

No team scoring 90+ goals with a goal difference of 49 or more in their Championship promotion season has ever finished lower than 16th in the Premier League the following season. Coventry City scored 97 goals with a goal difference of 52 last season. #pusb

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Including Arsenal - the 10th best Champions League team of the past decade participating this year - eight of that top-10 won on round one. The two which didn't - Atlético Madrid and Inter - were playing other top-10 sides. #ChampionsLeague

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Pre-Champions League odds mirrored squad values fairly closely...... ......with the exception of the two most valuable squads.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

As a football fan, I'd like to see my team go down fighting rather than meekly attempting to get a 0-0 draw or, with a great deal of luck, steal a win. Napoli are ranked 23rd in Europe on the Euro Club Index - basically equivalent to Crystal Palace. I'd hope that Palace would risk more.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Napoli's defensive shield produced less than a quarter of an expected goal for them against Arsenal last night - at an average of under 5% chance of scoring per shot. Arsenal created more than 4 expected goals with a near 16% average chance of scoring. Were Napoli's tactics really the best option?

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Lol Omg Lol: Confused Reaction

ALT: Lol Omg Lol: Confused Reaction

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

🧵The #ChampionsLeague starts again tonight. The 36 teams can be broken up into five groups: Group 1 - Realistic winners Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Manchester City Group 2 - Outsider chance of SF or more Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, Inter, Man Utd 1/

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I collected 32 media forecasts of the Premier League before the season started. All 32 had Hull City finishing bottom. They might still do so but I'd imagine that the same people all had Sunderland finishing bottom last term. Herd mentality has replaced real insight in punditry. #HCAFC

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Herd of Alpacas and Llamas Walking

ALT: Herd of Alpacas and Llamas Walking

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

The 3-match #PremierLeague table leads to many assumptions about the rest of the season. I always find it instructive to look at the previous season at this stage. Of the teams with 2 wins at this stage last season: Only 1 finished in the top-4 1 nearly went down 3 finished outside the top-7

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

🧵The transfer window has shut. We know who spent the most and least and who the most expensive players were but: Which teams paid most above market values? Which players cost the most above their values? Which teams paid closest to current values? Which players were the most under valuation?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Only the promoted clubs have lower squad values than Everton. Less than €100 million between Newcastle in 7th (see yesterday's post) and Nottingham Forest in 13th. Which teams will overperform their resources? Which will underperform? #EFC #NUFC #NFFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Manchester City have the most valuable squad in the Premier League, overtaking Arsenal during the transfer window. Will the eventual top half of the Premier League come close to this ranking?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Pre-season, Aston Villa were projected to get NINE points fewer than last season's 65. After only two matches, the current forecast is that Villa will get 15 points less than last term, a drop of 23%!!! Is this an overreaction? #AVFC @avfcstatto.bsky.social

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

It's amazing how much some markets can move after a single round of matches at the beginning of the season. The number of expected points for Brentford has increased by 14% and their chance of finishing in the top-4 has more than doubled.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

5 successive seasons without Chelsea, Manchester United or both in the Premier League top-5. Are there really reasons why this won't be repeated this season? Which club will be this term's "surprise" top-5 finisher? #CFC #MUFC

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

The remaining six are Lacroix, Jacquet, Khusanov, Yoro, Murillo and Diomande. So, the top-20 most valuable PL centre backs by team are 5️⃣Arsenal 4️⃣Manchester City 2️⃣Chelsea 2️⃣Manchester United 2️⃣Nottingham Forest 2️⃣Tottenham Hotspur 1️⃣Brighton 1️⃣Liverpool 1️⃣Newcastle

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

✅Vuskovic ✅Colwill ✅Guehi ✅Gvardiol ✅Dias ✅Martinez ✅Van Hecke ✅Van de Ven ✅Thiaw Van Dijk on the decline now and probably doesn't belong in this top-20 anymore.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

💸Arsenal have 5 of the 20 most valuable centre backs in the Premier League. Can you name any of the other top-20 centre backs?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

It is incredible how much change there is in Premier League teams from one season to the next. - 6 changes per starting XI on average since last year's opener - Newcastle made NINE if you are interested in the number of changes your own team made, or any more detail, just let me know.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

A 2-1 win for Hull against Leicester on opening weekend 10 years ago. A 22% chance of victory according to the odds back then. #hcafc

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

‼️The Premier League's opening weekend hadn't produced a result as unlikely as Hull's win against Manchester United since 2017. There have been only two less likely opening weekend wins in the last 20 years. #hcafc

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Most season predictions suggest that all three promoted teams will be relegated at the end of this Premier League season - but historical trends disagree. One or two promoted teams have been relegated in 79% of Premier League seasons. Expect at least one of Coventry, Ipswich and Hull to survive.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

I am collecting up Premier League full table predictions again this year. If you have one, or have seen one, please let me know by linking to it in the replies. My theory is that predictions have now become very safe. Thanks in advance for any help any of you can give me.

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Football’s most unimaginative prediction - Coventry City 18th….Ipswich Town 19th….Hull City 20th - is popular this year. This century, all three promoted teams have gone down in the exact order of their Championship season…once. Leicester....Ipswich Town....Southampton 24/25 #PremierLeague #EPL

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Spain European champions World number one ranked team Had won 7 of the previous 10 matches vs France including two semi-finals in the last two years Beat Uruguay, Portugal and Belgium to get to yesterday's match - a lot more impressive than France's opponents. France's favouritism was odd.

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

leelangford66.bsky.social @leelangford66.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The increased media focus on individuals over teams has to be a factor. Mbappe on fire, Yamal yet to shine.

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

Eric Sobie @sobesafc.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Isn't the simplest answer that France has been blowing teams away at this WC whereas Spain has been winning by a single goal in the final minutes?

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

leelangford66.bsky.social @leelangford66.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

My daughter says it's quite simple ... several French players have improved this season (Olise and the PSG contingent), whereas several Spanish players have had poor seasons (Rodri, Williams, Olmo).

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Reposted by Simon Gleave

Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Euro 2024 semi-final odds Spain 2.77, draw 2.91, France 3.33 (Spain won 2-1) Nations League 2025 semi-final odds Spain 2.57, draw 3.39, France 3.10 (Spain won 5-4) World Cup 2026 semi-final odds Spain 3.40, draw 3.30, France 2.38 Why the swap? What has changed?

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Since Sam Allardyce was filmed drinking a pint of wine, England have reach four our of five semi-finals at major tournaments.

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England Flag Waving

ALT: England Flag Waving

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Simon Gleave @simongleave.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Spain have reached only their second World Cup semi-final. Germany, Brazil, France, Italy, Argentina, Netherlands, Uruguay, Sweden, England and Croatia have all played more semi-finals than the Spanish. Quite surprising really given how good Spain have been for most of the past 20 years.

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Flag of Spain Waving

ALT: Flag of Spain Waving

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