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Second Nature Systems

@showpiece.bsky.social
70 followers 76 following 3.3K posts

Balanced comfort. Resourceful systems. Old and new technologies working together 💚 Gas boiler, 22 solar panels, 32kWh battery. GitHub: github.com/Alexwijn/SAT/discussions…

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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [18d, 24 Sep 2026-11 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.28x | 2.37x Flux: 2.65x | 2.75x Tracker: 2.83x | 2.93x Flexible: 2.84x | 2.96x Cosy: 2.90x | 3.01x Agile: 2.96x | 3.07x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 209 kWh for the heat-pump household and 69 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 3.04 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [18 Days | 24 Sep–11 Oct 26] HP £1.65 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £11.15 use + £7.85 elec SC = £19.00 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £6.64 gas + £5.28 gas SC + £8.74 elec SC = £20.65
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [15d, 26 Sep 2026-10 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.29x | 2.37x Flux: 2.66x | 2.75x Tracker: 2.73x | 2.82x Flexible: 2.86x | 2.97x Agile: 2.88x | 2.98x Cosy: 2.92x | 3.03x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 162 kWh for the heat-pump household and 60 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 2.70 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [15 Days | 26 Sep–10 Oct 26] HP £2.07 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £8.86 use + £6.53 elec SC = £15.38 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £5.79 gas + £4.40 gas SC + £7.26 elec SC = £17.45
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Solar hot water: [189 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 10 Oct 26] 10 Oct: 11.14 kWh; since 5 Apr 492.4 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~714.0 kWh; net input saved ~221.6 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~3.17 kg on 10 Oct; ~139.9 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [12d, 28 Sep 2026-09 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.29x | 2.37x Flux: 2.65x | 2.75x Tracker: 2.66x | 2.75x Flexible: 2.88x | 2.98x Cosy: 2.92x | 3.03x Agile: 3.11x | 3.22x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 112 kWh for the heat-pump household and 37 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 3.04 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [12 Days | 28 Sep–9 Oct 26] HP £1.45 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £6.24 use + £5.20 elec SC = £11.44 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £3.58 gas + £3.52 gas SC + £5.78 elec SC = £12.89
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Solar hot water: [188 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 9 Oct 26] 9 Oct: 1.89 kWh; since 5 Apr 481.2 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~697.8 kWh; net input saved ~216.6 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.54 kg on 9 Oct; ~136.8 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
1 panel and 1 inverter for £540? 🫣doesn't seem like a good deal I got 6 panels + 3 inverters for £790
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Send them an email, they should be able to provide additional options :)
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [9d, 30 Sep 2026-08 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.28x | 2.37x Flux: 2.64x | 2.75x Flexible: 2.89x | 3.01x Cosy: 2.91x | 3.03x Tracker: 2.95x | 3.06x Agile: 3.22x | 3.35x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 79 kWh for the heat-pump household and 29 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 2.75 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [9 Days | 30 Sep–8 Oct 26] HP £1.27 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £4.59 use + £3.87 elec SC = £8.46 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £2.78 gas + £2.64 gas SC + £4.31 elec SC = £9.73
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [6d, 02 Oct 2026-07 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.27x | 2.38x Flux: 2.64x | 2.76x Cosy: 2.90x | 3.04x Flexible: 2.90x | 3.04x Tracker: 3.11x | 3.26x Agile: 3.34x | 3.50x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 39 kWh for the heat-pump household and 20 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.98 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [6 Days | 2 Oct–7 Oct 26] HP £1.50 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £2.47 use + £2.57 elec SC = £5.03 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £1.92 gas + £1.76 gas SC + £2.86 elec SC = £6.53
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Also electrical back up heater with I now use a lot because of solar and battery. Ability to choose what top card values are displaying (max two rows). Ability to choose what line series are displayed 🥰💚
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Thanks, the wish list is quite long and might be complex 😅 But… I have HA sensor with a real time heat loss value, which would be nice to display. Also, average line for heat output power (would work and show nicely when system cycles to match heat loss)
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Nice work @trystanlea.bsky.social @glynhudson.bsky.social on emoncms UI! And not forgetting about the last few boilers on it 🥳💚
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [3d, 03 Oct 2026-05 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.28x | 2.38x Flux: 2.64x | 2.77x Cosy: 2.91x | 3.04x Flexible: 2.91x | 3.04x Agile: 3.14x | 3.29x Tracker: 3.15x | 3.29x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 20 kWh for the heat-pump household and 9.59 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 2.14 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [3 Days | 3 Oct–5 Oct 26] HP £0.67 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £1.29 use + £1.28 elec SC = £2.57 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £0.93 gas + £0.88 gas SC + £1.43 elec SC = £3.24
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [894d, 24 Apr 2024-04 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Agile: 3.54x | 3.18x Tracker: 4.18x | 3.73x Intell. Flux: 4.20x | 3.72x Cosy: 4.50x | 4.00x Flexible: 4.69x | 4.16x Flux: 4.75x | 4.20x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference recorded historical Tracker rates followed by Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; exact historical product identity unavailable; later rates published by Octopus and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed May 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed January 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2025-08-01, 2025-08-02, 2025-08-03, 2025-08-04, 2025-08-05, 2026-03-14, 2026-03-15, 2026-03-16, 2026-03-17, 2026-03-18, 2026-03-19, 2026-03-20, 2026-03-21, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-23, 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25, 2026-03-26, 2026-03-27, 2026-03-28, 2026-03-29, 2026-03-30, 2026-03-31, 2026-04-01, 2026-04-02, 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference recorded historical Tracker rates followed by Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; exact historical product identity unavailable; later rates published by Octopus, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed May 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2025 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2025 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed January 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2025-08-01, 2025-08-02, 2025-08-03, 2025-08-04, 2025-08-05, 2026-03-14, 2026-03-15, 2026-03-16, 2026-03-17, 2026-03-18, 2026-03-19, 2026-03-20, 2026-03-21, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-23, 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25, 2026-03-26, 2026-03-27, 2026-03-28, 2026-03-29, 2026-03-30, 2026-03-31, 2026-04-01, 2026-04-02, 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07. Delivered heat was 33,436 kWh for the heat-pump household and 22,503 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.49 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 213
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [894 Days | 24 Apr 24–4 Oct 26] Modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW £143.12 cheaper than HP HP — Agile - £1877.39 use + £445.37 elec SC = £2322.77 Boiler — Tracker → Fixed + Tracker→Agile elec - £1352.06 gas + £256.97 gas SC + £570.61 elec SC = £2179.64
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Solar hot water: [183 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 4 Oct 26] 4 Oct: 5.72 kWh; since 5 Apr 479.4 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~695.1 kWh; net input saved ~215.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~1.63 kg on 4 Oct; ~136.2 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [30d, 01 Sep 2026-30 Sep 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.31x | 2.50x Flux: 2.68x | 2.90x Flexible: 2.77x | 3.00x Cosy: 2.89x | 3.13x Agile: 2.92x | 3.16x Tracker: 2.94x | 3.19x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 166 kWh for the heat-pump household and 125 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.33 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
[Rewind | 30 Days | 1 Sep–30 Sep 26] HP £10.89 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £11.45 use + £13.48 elec SC = £24.93 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £12.03 gas + £8.80 gas SC + £15.00 elec SC = £35.83
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [365d, 03 Oct 2025-02 Oct 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Agile: 3.36x | 3.09x Intell. Flux: 3.80x | 3.46x Tracker: 3.96x | 3.63x Flexible: 4.38x | 3.98x Flux: 4.44x | 4.04x Cosy: 4.50x | 4.11x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference recorded historical Tracker rates followed by Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; exact historical product identity unavailable; later rates published by Octopus and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed January 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2026-03-14, 2026-03-15, 2026-03-16, 2026-03-17, 2026-03-18, 2026-03-19, 2026-03-20, 2026-03-21, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-23, 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25, 2026-03-26, 2026-03-27, 2026-03-28, 2026-03-29, 2026-03-30, 2026-03-31, 2026-04-01, 2026-04-02, 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference recorded historical Tracker rates followed by Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; exact historical product identity unavailable; later rates published by Octopus, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed October 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed November 2025 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed January 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed February 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed March 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2026-03-14, 2026-03-15, 2026-03-16, 2026-03-17, 2026-03-18, 2026-03-19, 2026-03-20, 2026-03-21, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-23, 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25, 2026-03-26, 2026-03-27, 2026-03-28, 2026-03-29, 2026-03-30, 2026-03-31, 2026-04-01, 2026-04-02, 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07. Delivered heat was 10,577 kWh for the heat-pump household and 9,308 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.14 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [365 Days | 3 Oct 25–2 Oct 26] HP £256.82 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Agile - £449.61 use + £182.39 elec SC = £632.00 Boiler — Tracker → Fixed + Tracker→Agile elec - £554.54 gas + £108.26 gas SC + £226.03 elec SC = £888.82
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Solar hot water: [181 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 2 Oct 26] 2 Oct: 3.10 kWh; since 5 Apr 473.6 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~686.8 kWh; net input saved ~213.1 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.88 kg on 2 Oct; ~134.6 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [30d, 01 Sep 2026-30 Sep 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.31x | 2.50x Flux: 2.68x | 2.90x Flexible: 2.77x | 3.00x Cosy: 2.89x | 3.13x Agile: 2.92x | 3.16x Tracker: 2.94x | 3.19x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 166 kWh for the heat-pump household and 125 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.33 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [30 Days | 1 Sep–30 Sep 26] HP £10.89 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £11.45 use + £13.48 elec SC = £24.93 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £12.03 gas + £8.80 gas SC + £15.00 elec SC = £35.83
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Solar hot water: [180 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 1 Oct 26] 1 Oct: 0.94 kWh; since 5 Apr 470.5 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~682.3 kWh; net input saved ~211.7 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.27 kg on 1 Oct; ~133.7 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [92d, 01 Jul 2026-30 Sep 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.69x | 2.60x Agile: 3.06x | 2.97x Flux: 3.12x | 3.01x Flexible: 3.23x | 3.11x Tracker: 3.30x | 3.19x Cosy: 3.36x | 3.25x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 508 kWh for the heat-pump household and 283 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.80 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [92 Days | 1 Jul–30 Sep 26] HP £25.73 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Intelligent Flux - £33.16 use + £41.34 elec SC = £74.50 Boiler — Fixed + Agile elec - £27.25 gas + £26.99 gas SC + £45.98 elec SC = £100.23
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Solar hot water: [179 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 30 Sep 26] 30 Sep: 5.03 kWh; since 5 Apr 469.6 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~680.9 kWh; net input saved ~211.3 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~1.43 kg on 30 Sep; ~133.5 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
👍 Solar and battery lowered my gas demand for water heating (no heat pump yet) since I installed it about 3 months ago. To the point where its cheaper than a heat pump with no solar or battery 🙃
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [180d, 03 Apr 2026-29 Sep 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.98x | 2.86x Agile: 2.98x | 2.87x Tracker: 3.42x | 3.28x Flux: 3.46x | 3.31x Flexible: 3.48x | 3.32x Cosy: 3.92x | 3.75x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed April 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v7; Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual Gap-filled reference dates: 2026-04-03, 2026-04-04, 2026-04-05, 2026-04-06, 2026-04-07. Delivered heat was 1,849 kWh for the heat-pump household and 1,002 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.85 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Heat Pump IDs compared to the Boiler today: 473
Heat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphicHeat-pump graphic
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Cost, Energy & Comfort [180 Days | 3 Apr–29 Sep 26] HP £60.29 cheaper than modeled boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW HP — Agile - £92.49 use + £89.97 elec SC = £182.46 Boiler — Tracker → Fixed + Tracker→Agile elec - £84.97 gas + £53.03 gas SC + £104.76 elec SC = £242.75
Heat-pump and boiler cost comparison with over-time charts, bill-relevant cost comparison, tariff ranking and COP diagnosticsEnergy and comfort comparison for Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed and Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeledOperational carbon comparison for the heat pump, Boiler without off-grid solar+battery DHW — modeled, and Boiler with off-grid solar+battery DHW — observed, with daily heat-pump and modeled-boiler operational emissionsStandard Deviation Analysis
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Solar hot water: [178 Days | 5 Apr 26 to 29 Sep 26] 29 Sep: 3.21 kWh; since 5 Apr 464.6 kWh into tank. Modeled boiler gas input ~673.6 kWh; net input saved ~209.1 kWh. Modeled CO₂e avoided: ~0.91 kg on 29 Sep; ~132.0 kg since 5 Apr. ~31% less input, ~1.45x vs boiler model.
Solar hot water chart showing immersion input for the completed day, cumulative input since 5 April, modeled gas input, net input saved versus immersion, modeled CO2e avoided, input efficiency, and an off-grid garage solar surplus note explaining hot water use instead of curtailment.
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Second Nature Systems @showpiece.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Spark Gap baseline means [90d, 01 Jul 2026-28 Sep 2026] Electricity | Tracker ref | Latest Fixed offer ref Intell. Flux: 2.70x | 2.60x Agile: 3.06x | 2.97x Flux: 3.13x | 3.02x Flexible: 3.23x | 3.12x Tracker: 3.32x | 3.21x Cosy: 3.37x | 3.25x
Spark Gap comparison of electricity tariffs against Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual.Energy-only raw cost per useful kWh of delivered heat for selected heat-pump electricity tariffs and a modeled boiler without Solar-DHW using household gas tariff Octopus 12M Fixed May 2026 v2; recorded rate, configured identity, Tracker gas reference Octopus Tracker April 2026 v1; counterfactual using published Octopus rates, and latest Fixed gas reference Octopus 12M Fixed June 2026 v8; Octopus 12M Fixed July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge July 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v3; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v4; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge August 2026 v5; Octopus 12M Fixed August 2026 v6; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v1; Octopus 12M Fixed September 2026 v2; Octopus 12M Fixed; Octopus 12M Fixed Low SC; Octopus 12M Fixed Low Standing Charge; published Octopus rates; day-matched counterfactual. Delivered heat was 495 kWh for the heat-pump household and 274 kWh for the modeled no-Solar-DHW boiler, a 1.80 times higher-to-lower ratio. Demand-adjusted companion rows apply only to the lower-heat boiler tariffs and show actual period spend divided by the higher-heat heat-pump household's heat, a common-denominator cost-burden index rather than a physical tariff unit cost. The observed household difference does not show that heating technology caused the demand difference.
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