Sign in

Shaun Ratcliff

@shaunratcliff.bsky.social
912 followers 154 following 250 posts

Pollster, political scientist and applied data scientist, Accent Research.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
ANU Australian Studies Institute @anuausi.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Fresh #DemocracySausage is out! 🌭🎙️ @zalisteggall.bsky.social & @allegraspender.bsky.social join @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the launch of Community Strong Australia — its logic, its irony, & whether teal voters will get on board. 🎧 ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
ausi.anu.edu.au
Democracy Sausage Episode: Two Teals, One Ticket | Australian Studies Institute
185
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The results from the May RedBridge Group and Accent Research MRP indicate that if an election were held now the result would be intense political fragmentation and realignment On our median estimate, no Coalition MPs would be elected in Qld, WA, SA or Tas
3124
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Along with More in Common Director Luke Tryl, we discussed the drivers of political fragmentation in both countries, and whether the Australian federal government can use the budget to turn it around Listen here www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
abc.net.au
Something has to give: will the budget deliver intergenerational relief? - ABC listen
Anthony Albanese is going where no Labor leader has successfully gone before with the budget expected to see cuts  to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. But will it deliver the changes ...
021
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Yesterday I spoke to Fran Kelly on ABC Radio National Hour about the causes and implications of the rise of One Nation in Australia, and Reform in the UK
232
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Yesterday I spoke to Fran Kelly on ABC Radio National Hour about the causes and implications of the rise of One Nation in Australia, and Reform in the UK
232
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
The other day I spoke to Joshua Peach from the AFR on the Farrer by-election and recent RedBridge-Accent Research polling on One Nations increased support since the last election Here’s what he wrote: www.afr.com/markets/equi...
afr.com
Can One Nation really flip Farrer? Yes, and here’s why in five charts
Here’s what the polls can tell us about Pauline Hanson’s next big test on Saturday in NSW.
001
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Whenever I see results like this I always wonder how much of it is driven by a poor quality sample
000
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
The April AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that the One Nation surge may have stalled. This is the third month in a row where their primary vote has been stuck in the high 20s: it was 26% in Jan, 28% in Feb, 29 per cent in Mar, and is now back at 27%
172
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
The April AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that the One Nation surge may have stalled. This is the third month in a row where their primary vote has been stuck in the high 20s: it was 26% in Jan, 28% in Feb, 29 per cent in Mar, and is now back at 27%
172
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Josh Goddard @joshgoddard98.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Really enjoyed chatting with @benraue.com and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social about the growing importance of housing and asset ownership in voting on The Tally Room podcast. Take a listen if you're interested!
152
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Ben Raue @benraue.com · 24/02/2026
Today's podcast features @joshgoddard98.bsky.social and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and is about how your position in the housing market (and your asset wealth) is becoming a more significant determinant of how you vote. www.tallyroom.com.au/64384
tallyroom.com.au
Podcast #163 – Home ownership, renting and voting
How does owning your home or renting impact on how you vote? For today’s podcast, Ben was joined by Shaun Ratcliff and Josh Goddard to discuss what we know about how home ownership (or asset …
175
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
I spoke to Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social on ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast about our polling and what it means for Australian politics Listen here: reporter.anu.edu.au/all-stories/...
reporter.anu.edu.au
Democracy Sausage: Realignment of Australian Politics
Social and political data scientist, Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to discuss new polling on the realignment of the Australian political landscape.
164
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system
011
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
ANU Australian Studies Institute @anuausi.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
How has the preferential voting system masked the decline of the major parties and why is the decline worse for the Liberals and Nationals? 🗳️ #AUListen #DemocracySausage 🎙️ @shaunratcliff.bsky.social @marijataflaga.bsky.social @markgkenny.bsky.social 👉 ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
055
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Listen to the latest episode of ANU's Democracy Sausage podcast, where I talk to Marija and Mark about the January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll, and the potential of a realignment of the Australian party system
011
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
The January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that since December, the vote share of the former Coalition parties has collapsed further. The Liberal, LNP and National vote is less than half of their pre-election high.
193
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
The January AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out now. It shows that since December, the vote share of the former Coalition parties has collapsed further. The Liberal, LNP and National vote is less than half of their pre-election high.
193
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Taiwan erasure
110
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Just built my own media monitor service in Claude. It searches a set of news outlets for several topics I've specified and emails it to me three times per day. This is going to disrupt a few businesses...
040
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
media.tenor.com
a young boy says merry christmas ya filthy animal in front of a sign that says escape
ALT: a young boy says merry christmas ya filthy animal in front of a sign that says escape
040
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
The latest AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out, this time for NSW state vote intention If a NSW state election were held now, Labor would win in a landslide (2pp 57% to Labor) www.afr.com/politics/swi...
040
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today
5107
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today
5107
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out. The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
4123
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out. The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election
4123
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions (thread)
194
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Join us on Wednesday for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie Uni where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics in Australia
051
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Shaun Wilson in the @theconversation.com using data from Accent Research surveys to answer the question "Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?" theconversation.com/why-has-supp...
theconversation.com
Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?
With Labor re-elected with a thumping majority, voters at the conservative end of the Coalition are drifting away, spurred by anxieties about immigration.
000
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Join us for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie University where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research at the 2025 federal election showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics
031
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Ben Spies-Butcher @bspiesbutcher.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
How did #Housing shape the 2025 #auspol Election? Come to our free webinar. We analyse new data to see how generation, tenure and voting shape housing politics With @emmabaker.bsky.social @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and @everybodyshome.bsky.social Maiy Azize events.humanitix.com/webinar-on-h...
events.humanitix.com
Housing and the 2025 Federal Election: Between Crisis and Inertia
Join our free webinar for key insights into housing and politics—ideal for researchers, students, and policymakers tackling Australia's housing crisis.
1119
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
What happened at the 2025 election? When did the race turn in Labor's favour, and what do the results mean for Australian politics in the future? Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social to answers these questions, and more ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
ausi.anu.edu.au
Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing
The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...
173
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
ANU Australian Studies Institute @anuausi.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
New ep of #DemocracySausage is out! 🎙️ @shaunratcliff.bsky.social joins @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the latest election numbers and what they reveal about the state of our democracy. Don’t miss this one! #auspol 🎧 #AUListen bit.ly/4kwNcNQ.
bit.ly
Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing
The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...
031
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS
030
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
I and some of my fellow political scientists and election watchers (including the always insightful @benraue.com) tried to help our American friends understand the 2025 Australian federal election by speaking to Victoria Kim at the New York Times Read the story here: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/w...
nytimes.com
Australia Election 2025: Voters Focus on Cost-of-Living Concerns Amid Global Turmoil
Voters will decide who can turn Australia around from the throes of inflation and a housing crisis, and navigate relations with a volatile Washington.
091
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
I spoke to @charischang.bsky.social at SBS News about some of the key seats to watch on election day www.sbs.com.au/news/article...
sbs.com.au
How marginal is your electorate? The key seats to watch on election day
Find your electorate and whether it's a marginal seat by using SBS News' interactive map — you can also check whether it's one of the key seats experts are watching.
031
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
I'm a bit late posting this, but I was quoted in this very comprehensive piece about generational politics in the Age/SMH by Angus Holland www.smh.com.au/national/gen...
smh.com.au
How will the ’generation gap” affect this election?
Boomers, Millennials, Gen Z – who invented these terms? What do they mean? And how do they make a difference to politics?
000
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)” This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground. You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
011
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)” This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground. You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...
011
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
casey briggs @caseybriggs.com · 23/04/2025
This humble little triangle explains the big shift in how we vote over 50 years. My latest: www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...
abc.net.au
This triangle helps explain a titanic shift in how Australia votes
This triangle is going to help us explain how Australian politics has fundamentally changed over the past five decades.
1913537
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
184
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30
184
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
At the beginning of the 2025 federal election campaign, the latest Accent Research | RedBridge MRP estimates that while a minority government still looks to be the most likely outcome, Labor are the favourites, and are within reach of a parliamentary majority
Predicted composition of the House of Representatives if an election were held now, based on estimates from MRP models. The first plot shows the number of seats each party (or group of parties and candidates) is expected to win comfortably (shaded darker) and that they are currently ahead in (shaded lighter). Those that are too close to call are shaded grey.
171
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
ausi.anu.edu.au
Democracy Sausage Episode: Testing the suburban strategy
In the first sausage sizzle of this federal election campaign, pollster Shaun Ratcliff gives Democracy Sausage an update on the state of the campaign. Is Labor bouncing back in the polls? How likely i...
092
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
I had the pleasure of talking to Marija and @markgkenny.bsky.social for the latest ep of Democracy Sausage, about our recent polling We discussed how different groups are voting, the Coalition's weakness on economic policy & the political geography of the election ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...
ausi.anu.edu.au
Democracy Sausage Episode: Testing the suburban strategy
In the first sausage sizzle of this federal election campaign, pollster Shaun Ratcliff gives Democracy Sausage an update on the state of the campaign. Is Labor bouncing back in the polls? How likely i...
092
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
I've been really happy with how News has been willing to represent the uncertainty in sampling (which is the heart of opinion polling). This is the first time I am aware of a major Australian media outlet doing this We're in the field now with more polling. Watch this space
3165
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Ben Spies-Butcher @bspiesbutcher.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
ICYMI: Tomorrow night I'll be discussing #housing and the #auspol election at Sydney uni - there'll be politics, data and time for discussion
132
Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
interested in research on Australian politics, housing and inequality? Join us for a seminar on: The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election hosted by the University of Sydney and Macquarie, this Thursday Details below, link in next post
150
Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff
Ben Spies-Butcher @bspiesbutcher.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Looking forward to discussing #housing, intergenerational equity and the upcoming #auspol #election on March 27 with the amazing Nicole Gurran and @shaunratcliff.bsky.social. Perfect first outing with Macquarie's Centre for Housing and Urban Research events.humanitix.com/the-housing-...
events.humanitix.com
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
The Housing Affordability Crisis, Intergenerational Inequality, and the 2025 Federal Election
0205