Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 16hWatch our MNF alternate broadcast on NFL Network! -View of 22 players on the field! -Tons of Xs and Os -Cool pre-snap metrics -Live game management analysis! 2222
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Kicking to go up six is a great way to lose by one! 6392
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 11/10/20264th down model did not like Broncos kicking on 4th-and-goal at the 1. Even if you fail, you are in tie game and opponent gets ball at the minus-1. Our conversion rate is probably a little optimistic, but the breakeven point is 50%, which Denver should certainly clear. 3183
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Here's the numbers on the Bucs 4th and 1. We're right on the edge BUT our conversion rates are a little optimistic in the low red zone. So if you were asking me in that spot, I would say: lean kick. 9351
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The five best teams in football, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. Hello, Jaguars! 7284
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Thought this one was interesting too! Argument for: if you convert opponent scores, a missed PAT results in tie game. Fail, still down 3 on ensuing score. Argument against: make opponent go for 2 to go up 3. Model leaned slightly toward PAT, but it's close. 53% breakeven percentage. 2100
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Eagles needed just a 13% chance of converting to justify going for it, so this was the only decision. Value of being up 13 vs. 10 is very small and would have given Rams better field position than a 4th down failure, too. Correct call by Philly. 8243
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Our model easily agreed with all three Packers 4th down go decisions on that touchdown drive. 0190
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026If the model thought this were zone, the ghost defender would have played differently than in the GIF above 120
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Also, of course, there can be data issues. Here’s play the model really didn’t like from Witherspoon. But it also has been told that this is Cover-1. But it doesn’t look like man to me, and I think that explains Witherspoon’s positioning. 100
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Those are obvious. But it’s not always so clear. Devon Witherspoon at the bottom of the rankings really stands out. Here’s a play the model did not like from Witherspoon. It dings him for the extra cushion he gives Wilson, boosting the xComp. 100
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Here are two plays the Phase 1 model significantly dinged cornerbacks for. Deommodore Lenoir beat by Puka Nacua and Charvarius Ward against Chris Moore. Again, these both happen to be targeted but they don’t have to be. 120
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Here’s another Hill play the model loved. You can see how the gap between Hill and the ghost isn’t large. But the difference of a yard or even the angle a corner is facing or moving can have significant impact on completion probability. 110
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Dax Hill leads all corners in Phase 1. Here’s an example play the metric loved. This play he happens to be targeted, but Phase 1 looks at positioning regardless of target or not. On the dots, you can see Hill’s positioning (blue) is better than the ghost defender (red). 110
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Sharing 2026 results from my almost-done CB pre-throw positioning metric for the first time! 2213
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Sacks model like all four of these unders tonight 1100
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Through Week 2, the Eagles had 16 plays where Jalen Hurts was pressured but no defenders earned a pass rush win on the play -- easily most in the NFL. The Eagles offensive line is getting beat, but it matters a lot how quickly they get beat. 1150
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Stafford and Mumpfield strike back with Riley Moss gambling on initial cut. DOTS. 1161
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Hufanga go-ahead pick-six, dots! (NFL Next Gen Stats) 0193
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Kicking to go up 6 is a trap! Browns made right call. 1210
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026awful 4th down decision for Chargers here. Breakeven number -- the conversion probability needed to justify going for it -- was just 25%. 25%!! 3241
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026by the by, the Chargers second kick on 4th-and-3 was totally fine! that area of the field is a sweet spot for kicking FGs. It's where chance of FG hitting is still very high but chance of TD if you convert 4th down isn't that high. You can see this in generic 4th down chart on right! 1110
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 27/09/2026this is one of those where people say "two-possession lead" when you're way too early to think that way. It's about point maximization and kicking isn't it. 5200
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 25/09/2026We adjust for the quality of the offense and defense on field, but it's not adjusted for what we have seen tonight. But! The difference between breakeven and conversion prob here > 30 points. No caliber of offense is bad enough to pass that up! 160
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026steeling myself for the monumental injustice that would be Survivor being ranked outside the top 10 3110
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Here is one of Simmons' 19 pass rush wins for you to enjoy 270
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Top 10 players by pass rush wins this season. -Jeffery Simmons, dear god -Dallas Turner has arrived -Boye Mafe being what Bengals need, keeping up PRWR with expanded playing time! -I thought Bradley Chubb was totally washed and was very critical of that signing. Looking like a bad take! 3444
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Model didn't like it. But it also doesn't know they're facing Tyson Bagent in the rain (it can't adjust for in-game QB change) so can't hate on it like I normally would I don't think 2231
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Model preferred Jets go for it on 4th-and-1 at the Packers 9 1131
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Delayed here but yes: this was a horrible decision by the Texans. 25 percentage point difference between the breakeven rate and conversion probability! You can't justify kicking here. 1204
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Jalen Carter (98) lines up well off the ball, jumps at hard count but doesn't cross LOS but gets JC Latham to move in hopes of drawing defensive penalty. False start called. I don't know if this was intentional or not. But would be a good little gambit for defenses to try occasionally! 1192
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Week 2 best bets article is up! (Will add most defensive props later) Each week in here you will find my record in the column for the season. Something I feel strongly about: if I'm going to do betting content, I'm going to track and share results -- win or lose. www.espn.com/espn/betting... 020
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 16/09/2026This was a 12-yard completion to Kendrick Bourne but Chargers were fortunate it wasn't a TD to Michael Wilson (14) instead 070
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Should be a little less confident than this because it was a long 1. Model still leaned go on 4th-and-2 though. 070
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Mansoor Delane with a pick off Bo Nix on the first drive of his pro career! Dots! 3311
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Top 5 (left) and bottom 5 (right) tackles in pass block win rate in Week 1. (ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats) 0191
Seth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Nice anticipatory break by Taaffe starting before the throw on this pick off Kirk Cousins 070
