iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The new IDOS #FlagshipReport " #SustainableFutures at Stake? The Case for Politics of Cooperation and Perseverance” will highlight the institutions, actors, and coalitions that can advance and shape reform to rebuild cooperation in a multipolar world. 📅 Stay tuned for the launch on 21 September!

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

#APSA2026 was a blast! I presented our measurement paper with @lucanway.bsky.social, @stevelevitsky.bsky.social, an event dataset that tracks autocratization, built on a precision-first #LLM pipeline that traces every incident to its source, and cost-efficient. A complement to expert-coded #data.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

New website launched! semuhi.github.io Recently, for a talk I gave, I had to reflect on the different streams of work I do, which accumulate in different portfolios, and how they connect to each other and to the questions I am pursuing as a scholar and as a policy advisor.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

New publication 📢 #Donors pour money into #GovTech expecting a democratization dividend. #Autocrats are spending just as eagerly. At least 88 authoritarian regimes currently run GovTech projects. Electoral autocracies alone receive 48.6% of GovTech aid commitments. Someone must be off the mark.

Reality check on donor expectations: do govtech initiatives help autocrats?

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Join IDOS at #GMF26! How do malicious #AI swarms threaten democratic elections? ➡️ And how should different actors respond? 🗓️ 23 June, 14:00 CEST 📍 DW Global Media Forum, Bonn 📲 www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... @deutschewelle.dw.com @akademie.dw.com

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

In collaboration with #UNDP and @akademie.dw.com, we are launching the Depolarization Toolkit: an AI-powered assistant with a multi-agent architecture, designed for practitioners working on depolarization. #AgenticAI #DevelopmentCooperation @idos-research.bsky.social @jleininger.bsky.social

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

#Democracy promotion as we know it is likely finished. That's the starting point of the chapter that @jleininger.bsky.social and I contributed to the new @idos-research.bsky.social discussion paper edited by @mfurness.bsky.social and @nielskeijzer.bsky.social. Here is a quick recap:

International development cooperation and the emerging global order

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

#AgenticAI is arriving in development cooperation before the sector is ready to adopt and govern such a rapidly evolving technology. My latest column on the topic. @idos-research.bsky.social

OECD GovNet Reforming the development sector for agentic AI

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

💡#AgenticAI is arriving in #DevelopmentCooperation. How to govern such fast‑evolving, increasingly autonomous tech? IDOS expert @semuhi.bsky.social argues in #TheCurrentColumn: Germany should help steer the sector’s tech transition with @bmz.de in leading role. 📲 www.idos-research.de/en/the-curre...

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Don't draw the wrong lessons from the #Hungarian #election. I know the hot takes are piling up, and I promise this isn't another one. It's a worry about explanations circulating. Most accounts I've read feel post-hoc. Read more on my op-ed ‪@globalpolicy.bsky.social‬ ‪@idos-research.bsky.social‬

A quote from the text. Most of these explanations are after the fact or secondary at best.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Global Policy @globalpolicy.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Opinion Don’t Draw the Wrong Lessons from the Hungarian Election www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/04/2...

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

@semuhi.bsky.social argues in @globalpolicy.bsky.social that existing explanations for the opposition’s success in #Hungary are after the fact and secondary. Without Magyar’s legal immunity and financial mobilization, this victory would be impossible. 📲 www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/04/2...

globalpolicyjournal.com

Don’t Draw the Wrong Lessons from the Hungarian Election

Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu argues that existing explanations for the opposition’s success in Hungary are after the fact and secondary. Without Magyar’s legal immunity and financial mobilization, this victor...

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

The #Islamabad talks seem quite unique to me. The US almost always serves as the mediator in the conflicts that I know and study, brokering deals at Camp David, etc. I can't recall many cases where the US was the party needing a mediator.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 03/03/2026

In a personalist global system, the most important decisions “rest on the whims of men who have systematically discarded anyone willing to tell them no,” write @seva.bsky.social and @semuhi.bsky.social.

foreignaffairs.com

The Personalist Global Order

When individual whims drive great-power policy.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Is principled pragmatism possible, or is it just pure contradiction? Is it realistic to expect middle powers to shape the next global order? If these questions interest you, check out my recent op-ed published on @table.media. table.media/forum/tablef... @idos-research.bsky.social

States across the Global South will be seeking partners who offer cooperation wihout domination, and middle powers can establish such coalitions around different issues.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Carney’s speech at #Davos may be bookmarked as a defining moment marking the end of the liberal world order as we know it, and a new #GlobalOrder looming on the horizon, with stronger emphasis on “value-based realism.” Analysis by @semuhi.bsky.social in @table.media: table.media/forum/tablef...

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

#Davos is over. Participants are calling it one of the gloomiest editions yet. Sessions like "Is #Democracy in Trouble?" drew packed rooms of anxious corporate leaders. My latest reflections on Davos for @devex.com: the private sector can be democracy's ally. www.devex.com/news/can-the...

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

For the first time since the 1930s, three nuclear superpowers are all governed by personalist leaders, who concentrate power, and operate in echo chambers. On @foreignaffairs.com, @seva.bsky.social and I discuss how personalism is reshaping the world order. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 27/01/2026

foreignaffairs.com

The Personalist Global Order

When individual whims drive great-power policy.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

Our article was featured as one of the top 10 most-read articles on the @jodemocracy.bsky.social. Looking for a good holiday read? Interested in the role of business in democracy protection? Here's one for you 👇 www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/can... @lucanway.bsky.social

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

New publication alert! 🚨 Can digital tools connecting citizens directly to the executive strengthen autocracy? doi.org/10.23661/idp... w/ @idos-research.bsky.social @avonschiller.bsky.social

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

As a member of the Sounding Board for this initiative, I'm really excited and looking forward to seeing the results! Apply if you have an initiative to spotlight for public #communication as a force for #inclusion and cooperation in today’s polarized world! @undp.org @idos-research.bsky.social

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

The European Democracy Shield is officially out! I'm pleased I could offer inputs to these conversations with my colleagues at @idos-research.bsky.social. 🔑 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐞𝐲𝐞: 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥e.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

It doesn't get any better than this. I'm talking about the #NewWaysofGoverning conference organized by @undp-gpcg.bsky.social in #Oslo. We discussed #democraticinnovation with an incredible group of people and brainstormed ideas for the future of governance. I have three main takeaways:

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀? In our new dataset, we track these prosecutions with @seva.bsky.social @sahibjafarov.bsky.social. It's more common than you might think. Check out our @foreignpolicy.com op-ed for the findings. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d... @idos-research.bsky.social

foreignpolicy.com

Prosecuting the Powerful

Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 29/10/2025

Despite what men like Sarkozy, Trump, and Bolsonaro may insist, prosecuting a former president or prime minister is a normal and healthy thing for advanced democracies to do.

foreignpolicy.com

Prosecuting the Powerful

Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Seva @seva.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

@semuhi.bsky.social and @sahibjafarov.bsky.social did much of the work on this dataset. over a quarter of all non-autocratic rulers 1989-2021 have been prosecuted, so it was a lot of work

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Seva @seva.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Sarkozy is going to jail but he’s not the first one. In our new dataset we track modern leaders who have been prosecuted by their own states. There are 215 of them. Turns out leader prosecution is a common & healthy practice in democracies. Full access link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/28/d...

foreignpolicy.com

Prosecuting the Powerful

Historical data shows putting leaders on trial is a healthy democratic practice.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

We are rethinking #corporate civic responsibility for safeguarding #democracy at @idos-research.bsky.social. Drawing on my research and insights from my travels throughout the US as a @gmfus.bsky.social Marshall Memorial Fellow #MMF, I deliver three key messages: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhGG...

youtube.com

How can businesses strengthen democracy instead of undermining it | Publication | Sinanoglu, Semuhi

YouTube video by IDOS

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 #𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 #𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬? They face huge risks, especially during economic crises, when dictators choose to financially extort or #purge their business allies. And yet, despite their power to disrupt, business elites rarely switch sides. My research shows why.

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

"𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐨𝐟 #𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬." You’ve probably heard that a lot lately. #European leaders now frame international assistance as a strategic tool to protect borders, prevent #conflict, and promote commercial ties.

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

German Marshall Fund @gmfus.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

🎓 Meet the 2025 MMF Fellows! (Part 4) 📣 GMF is proud to introduce the participants of the 2025 Marshall Memorial Fellowship. The fellows will begin their programming in Washington, DC, and then continue with 24 days of immersive, transatlantic travel to three European cities. 🔗 buff.ly/NPYvdep

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Government and Opposition @govandopp.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

On #FirstView - "Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - shorturl.at/4spJG by Semuhi Sinanoglu (@semuhi.bsky.social)

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

#HumanitarianAid is increasingly guided by strategic interests rather than humanitarian needs. Europe’s humanitarian commitments are under strain as geopolitics reshapes international solidarity. 💡 New IDOS #PolicyBrief by IDOS expert @semuhi.bsky.social doi.org/10.23661/ipb...

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Review of Democracy @revdem2020.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

🎙️ In the new episode of our special series produced in partnership with @jodemocracy.bsky.social, @semuhi.bsky.social and @lucanway.bsky.social reflect on capitalism’s enduring imperfections while presenting it as a plausible force for democratic change. 🎧 Listen to it now: 👉 tinyurl.com/2mdcv2cw

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 26/08/2025

#OpenAccess from @govandopp.bsky.social‬ - Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation - cup.org/3HMMH51 - @semuhi.bsky.social #FirstView

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Government and Opposition @govandopp.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

#OpenAccess on #FirstView - "Autocrats and Their Business Allies: The Informal Politics of Defection and Co-optation" - cup.org/3HMMH51 by @semuhi.bsky.social

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IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

#Throwback to #GMF2025: @semuhi.bsky.social shares key insights from the IDOS session on “Rethinking #InformationResilience: Alternative Toolkit, New Alliances” – 🎥 Watch the full video on #YouTube: youtu.be/ls2-vkxc-S4

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

#Humanitarian #aid is taking a backseat to #geopolitics. As an act of solidarity, it helped win hearts & minds. But would it have the same effect linked to strategic interests? The results are surprisingly positive! Thanks Diplomatisches Magazin for featuring my research. @idos-research.bsky.social

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

What a day! @deutschewelle.bsky.social Global Media Forum is just another reason to love this beautiful city of #Bonn. We organized a panel on how to foster cross-sectoral collaborations with businesses to protect information integrity. I have three key takeaways from our conversations:

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

Are you #GMF25 in Bonn? Then join us for our panel in the afternoon! We have an amazing line-up! How can businesses help protect the information space? How did the US funding cuts impact collaborations? How to improve the audience perception of toolkit? @news.dw.com @idos-research.bsky.social

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

IDOS_research @idos-research.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

Join us at @news.dw.com #GMF25! Our panel will focus on #InformationResilience: How can we defend #InformationIntegrity amid rising geopolitical tension, funding cuts & shrinking civic space? What new alliances can help overcome these challenges? gmf-event.com/event/progra... semuhi.bsky.social‬

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Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD @semuhi.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

Why #democracy needs #business? A strong private sector is key to democratic resilience. But there are risks! It isn't business capture of state but state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, we argue in @jodemocracy.bsky.social w/ @lucanway.bsky.social & S. Levitsky.

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Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

Capitalism is often blamed for democracy’s ills. Yet it is not business capture of the state but rather state capture of business that poses the greatest danger to democracy, argue Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky. "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

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Reposted by Semuhi Sinanoglu, PhD

Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 02/07/2025

⚡ NEW ISSUE OUT NOW! Authors and their essays below 👇 muse.jhu.edu/issue/55125

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