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Ty 🏳️‍🌈

@semperty.bsky.social
83 followers 420 following 387 posts

mostly bad opinions, but that won't stop me from posting them.

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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Do you want a breakdown of how things went for Juventus against Milan with lots of fancy numbers and graphs? Good, because @semperty.bsky.social is here to give you all of that. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The variance tax: How Juventus dominated Milan and still only left with a point
Near-perfect defense, a lagging attack, and a lucky equalizer — inside a 1-1 draw Juve should have won cleanly.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
So, @semperty.bsky.social decided to dig into some numbers and make some fancy graphics to help us understand some things that happened during Juventus' season-opening win over Frosinone. Check it out, won't you? www.blackwhitereadallover.com/previews-rev...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Territory, structure, and variance: Inside Juve’s dominance over Frosinone
A narrow victory sparked frustration, but the underlying data reveals a team in full control of a dominant process.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Prose, not poetry: What a 30-year-old Trapattoni textbook still has to say about the modern game (via @semperty.bsky.social) #Juventus www.blackwhitereadallover.com/juventus-his...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Prose, not poetry: What a 30-year-old Trapattoni textbook still has to say about the modern game
Trapattoni’s teams are gone, but the philosophy behind them keeps showing up in coaches who never read the book.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
iirc there was a study done where they asked participants to guess the probability of an event happening, and responses settled very neatly around 0, 0.5, and 1, with almost nothing in between. people just don’t process what happens in those middle spaces well!
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
unfortunately you and i will never know 😔
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
so i've got ~11 months to figure out how to successfully use a vpn to grab a stream from the uk. got it. 🫡
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"people outside of europe don't know what shapes are"
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
they also sat him in week 18 one season in which a win would've given them a top-6 seed lol
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
static.klipy.com
Finish Him
ALT: Finish Him
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
on the one hand, they’re finally treating the us’ war with iran and russia’s war with ukraine the same. on the other hand, it’s exactly the opposite of what they should’ve done 🙃
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
New post: Introducing CONTACT—rally-level win probability Given everything happening right now in this rally, how likely is this team to win the next point? Took longer than expected to build something we could trust. But now we have it. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: What Actually Matters
What the model found about which contacts actually shape rally outcomes
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
fifa confirming that trump called infantino but it definitely didn’t impact their decision in overturning a red card suspension for the first time in 64 years sure feels like this
static.klipy.com
Agnes's Iconic Wink from WandaVision
ALT: Agnes's Iconic Wink from WandaVision
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
i appreciate you having a level headed conversation! :)
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
i guess i just don't get the outrage here. it very clearly starts with "If you think it's fine..." which isn't you. i don't understand the vitriol.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
admittedly i think trump's invovlement is wrong, so i'm obviously not the target audience, but none of this was my takeaway from what he said. if you're justifying this scenario, though, i'm curious how you're differentiating this scenario from other obviously corrupt scenarios involving trump.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
fifa: you have until 5am to get your appeal in, if you want it to be considered. also fifa: lol you really thought we were going to listen to an appeal from a dumb, ugly, stinky country?
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
We all know the myriad of ethical issues that come with this World Cup, previous ones and those to come in future years. Yet we're still (mostly) watching, as @semperty.bsky.social explains. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/2026-fifa-wo...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The corrupted cup: Why we still watch when FIFA sells out the game
FIFA has spent decades monetizing the World Cup while quietly making it harder to access. That’s a real loss. It deserves to be named as one. And yet. I still set my alarm.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
the world cup is more than the games and the goals. it’s the people. it’s the best the world has to offer, under one banner, for a few months every few years. fifa can corporatize the game, but they can’t take that away from us. @bwrao.bsky.social www.blackwhitereadallover.com/2026-fifa-wo...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The corrupted cup: Why we still watch when FIFA sells out the game
FIFA has spent decades monetizing the World Cup while quietly making it harder to access. That’s a real loss. It deserves to be named as one. And yet. I still set my alarm.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Via @semperty.bsky.social: Juventus’ 2025-26 season was good enough, until it wasn’t. Here's a big breakdown of where things went right — and especially wrong — for the Bianconeri this past season. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Juventus’ 2025-26 season was good enough, until it wasn’t
A data-driven autopsy of Juventus’ 2025-26 Serie A season
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
my wife uses this after a friend recommended it, and a music festival we added gave them to artists for the same reason you need one. 10/10 would recommend. mantasleep.com/products/man...
mantasleep.com
Manta Sleep Mask
The world's #1 sleep mask. 100% blackout eye cover for sleep. 2+ million customers worldwide. Designed for deeper sleep – anytime, anywhere.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
i can definitively say that hosting a wc is absolutely not it bc what do you mean there’s no wc coverage - much less no wc matches - until 2 pm?
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
mike when begs the question enters the chat
static.klipy.com
Mad Pissed Off: Arthur's Fist Meme
ALT: Mad Pissed Off: Arthur's Fist Meme
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
i, for one, am shooketh that an american media company found a way to monetize a break for health
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
idk what this is in reference to, but also no
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
that's sick! can't wait to see more results!
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
curious what the model is built on. as a juve fan, i personally love to see it lol
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
no need to scan. i can tell by the length of his shorts.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Yesterday we put up our first Youtube exclusive @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social content. It's not a thing we're gonna do regularly, but the occasional special project. Please go check it out, we're building a model to predict the World Cup. We think it's pretty rad. www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-3Q...
youtube.com
What's a Model? Building Our 2026 World Cup Forecast (Part 1)
YouTube video by Double Pivot Podcast
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
super excited to join the BWRAO writing team with this piece! :)
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
A debut post (with graphs!) from @semperty.bsky.social: What the numbers actually say about Dusan Vlahovic www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Same goals, different story: What the numbers actually say about Dusan Vlahovic
We take a look at two Juventus strikers who wore the No. 9 but are potentially viewed in much different lights.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
New piece on the blog—introducing SWEEP, our set-level win probability model. The box score tells you who won. It can't tell you when the advantage shifted, which moments carried weight, or what 'in control' actually means. That's the gap SWEEP explores. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: The Living Set
Introducing SWEEP: Translating Score, Rotation, and Leverage into Probability
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
New post: The Big 12 Mystery—Poll Bias, Conference Strength, and What the Ratings Actually Reveal The Big 12 is either a gauntlet of elite programs—or a thick middle with no peak. In Elo's math, that's a double-edged sword. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/ncaa-volle...
nerdabovethenet.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: Math, Myth, and the Modern Game
Conference Gauntlets, 5-Set Coin Flips, and the Anatomy of an Ascent
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
hey y'all. running a half marathon to raise money for aryse, which supports immigrant and refugee youth in pittsburgh. last year, i raised a little over $1,300. this year, my goal is $2k - even if money's tight, sharing this post to spread the word means the world. 🙏 raceroster.com/events/2026/...
raceroster.com
Help Tyler raise money for participating in 2026 DICK'S Sporting Goods Pittsburgh Marathon Weekend on May 2, 2026
I’m running a half marathon this spring to support ARYSE because their work with immigrant and refugee youth in Pittsburgh really resonates with me. These students face a lot of uncertainty and challe...
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
New piece on the blog—the Texas A&M championship run through the lens of Elo ratings. Three straight 1-seed upsets. 182 Elo points gained in three matches. The model tracking a miracle in real time. The anatomy of a statistical heist. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: The Texas A&M Story
The Anatomy of a Statistical Heist
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New piece on the blog—introducing Elo ratings as the foundation for win probability in D1 volleyball. First step in a longer series. Before we can talk about sets, rallies, or individual contributions, we need a shared language for team strength.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
it was illegal 30 years ago when surya bonaly did it. it is currently not illegal. she was punished bc she did a trick that violated the rulebook.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
i’m the voice of british left wing politics bsky. many people are saying this.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
“guns fix everything” is the lesson i think he’ll be taking away. going to make for an incredible spectacle at the next wc.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
every french national team in any sport at any level
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
New piece on the blog about opponent scouting—how to figure out which weaknesses are actually worth exploiting. Not every edge carries leverage. The framework helps you identify the 2-3 fights worth picking vs the noise that just looks bad on paper.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
we should help ourselves by voting for candidates who don’t even want to win! that’ll help our situation!
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
New piece on the blog about mid-season diagnosis—how to figure out where to focus when you can't fix everything. Running what-if scenarios to see which improvements actually move the needle. Turns out spreading resources thin dilutes impact on your highest-leverage weakness.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
New post: Rethinking Standards Most programs evaluate performance the same way: identify a peer group, calculate averages, treat those as benchmarks. It's accessible. It's inherited. But it's worth asking what problem that process actually solves. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/introducin...
nerdabovethenet.substack.com
Introducing Logistic Regression for Volleyball Standards
Rethinking Standards: From Averages to Analytics
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
nah, the refs are just ultra wealthy and would rather personally benefit than officiate a reasonable game.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Nerd Above the Net is live! Most volleyball conversations stop where they should probably begin. This blog exists to ask better questions. First post: Getting Nerdy Above the Net open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov... #volleyball #sportsanalytics
open.substack.com
Getting Nerdy Above the Net: Asking the Right Questions
Thoughtful volleyball analysis, insights, and questions that actually matter.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
teaser for my first piece. kinda surreal that months of planning are finally ready to be put into action 🥰
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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Launching tomorrow! Equal parts excited and nervous to finally make this public after months of building 🥰🏐
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
do you think the nazis looked and sounded this bafflingly stupid in real time and have only looked put together and coherent in retrospect bc no one could fathom how people so unbelievably stupid could attain the power necessary to inflict the damage they did?
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
think the argument is more « you can’t say bad things about rodgers (or ben) as people if you cheer for a team who embraced ray lewis » but here’s the thing…i’m perfectly capable of hating all three of those people even if i don’t hate their teams.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
wait what did i miss?
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