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Ty 🏳️‍🌈

@semperty.bsky.social
83 followers 420 following 387 posts

mostly bad opinions, but that won't stop me from posting them.

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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Do you want a breakdown of how things went for Juventus against Milan with lots of fancy numbers and graphs? Good, because @semperty.bsky.social is here to give you all of that. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The variance tax: How Juventus dominated Milan and still only left with a point
Near-perfect defense, a lagging attack, and a lucky equalizer — inside a 1-1 draw Juve should have won cleanly.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
So, @semperty.bsky.social decided to dig into some numbers and make some fancy graphics to help us understand some things that happened during Juventus' season-opening win over Frosinone. Check it out, won't you? www.blackwhitereadallover.com/previews-rev...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Territory, structure, and variance: Inside Juve’s dominance over Frosinone
A narrow victory sparked frustration, but the underlying data reveals a team in full control of a dominant process.
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Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Prose, not poetry: What a 30-year-old Trapattoni textbook still has to say about the modern game (via @semperty.bsky.social) #Juventus www.blackwhitereadallover.com/juventus-his...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Prose, not poetry: What a 30-year-old Trapattoni textbook still has to say about the modern game
Trapattoni’s teams are gone, but the philosophy behind them keeps showing up in coaches who never read the book.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"people outside of europe don't know what shapes are"
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
static.klipy.com
Finish Him
ALT: Finish Him
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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
New post: Introducing CONTACT—rally-level win probability Given everything happening right now in this rally, how likely is this team to win the next point? Took longer than expected to build something we could trust. But now we have it. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: What Actually Matters
What the model found about which contacts actually shape rally outcomes
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
fifa: you have until 5am to get your appeal in, if you want it to be considered. also fifa: lol you really thought we were going to listen to an appeal from a dumb, ugly, stinky country?
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
We all know the myriad of ethical issues that come with this World Cup, previous ones and those to come in future years. Yet we're still (mostly) watching, as @semperty.bsky.social explains. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/2026-fifa-wo...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The corrupted cup: Why we still watch when FIFA sells out the game
FIFA has spent decades monetizing the World Cup while quietly making it harder to access. That’s a real loss. It deserves to be named as one. And yet. I still set my alarm.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
the world cup is more than the games and the goals. it’s the people. it’s the best the world has to offer, under one banner, for a few months every few years. fifa can corporatize the game, but they can’t take that away from us. @bwrao.bsky.social www.blackwhitereadallover.com/2026-fifa-wo...
blackwhitereadallover.com
The corrupted cup: Why we still watch when FIFA sells out the game
FIFA has spent decades monetizing the World Cup while quietly making it harder to access. That’s a real loss. It deserves to be named as one. And yet. I still set my alarm.
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Via @semperty.bsky.social: Juventus’ 2025-26 season was good enough, until it wasn’t. Here's a big breakdown of where things went right — and especially wrong — for the Bianconeri this past season. www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Juventus’ 2025-26 season was good enough, until it wasn’t
A data-driven autopsy of Juventus’ 2025-26 Serie A season
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
i can definitively say that hosting a wc is absolutely not it bc what do you mean there’s no wc coverage - much less no wc matches - until 2 pm?
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Yesterday we put up our first Youtube exclusive @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social content. It's not a thing we're gonna do regularly, but the occasional special project. Please go check it out, we're building a model to predict the World Cup. We think it's pretty rad. www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-3Q...
youtube.com
What's a Model? Building Our 2026 World Cup Forecast (Part 1)
YouTube video by Double Pivot Podcast
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
super excited to join the BWRAO writing team with this piece! :)
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Black & White & Read All Over @bwrao.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
A debut post (with graphs!) from @semperty.bsky.social: What the numbers actually say about Dusan Vlahovic www.blackwhitereadallover.com/serie-a-camp...
blackwhitereadallover.com
Same goals, different story: What the numbers actually say about Dusan Vlahovic
We take a look at two Juventus strikers who wore the No. 9 but are potentially viewed in much different lights.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
New piece on the blog—introducing SWEEP, our set-level win probability model. The box score tells you who won. It can't tell you when the advantage shifted, which moments carried weight, or what 'in control' actually means. That's the gap SWEEP explores. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: The Living Set
Introducing SWEEP: Translating Score, Rotation, and Leverage into Probability
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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
New post: The Big 12 Mystery—Poll Bias, Conference Strength, and What the Ratings Actually Reveal The Big 12 is either a gauntlet of elite programs—or a thick middle with no peak. In Elo's math, that's a double-edged sword. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/ncaa-volle...
nerdabovethenet.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: Math, Myth, and the Modern Game
Conference Gauntlets, 5-Set Coin Flips, and the Anatomy of an Ascent
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
hey y'all. running a half marathon to raise money for aryse, which supports immigrant and refugee youth in pittsburgh. last year, i raised a little over $1,300. this year, my goal is $2k - even if money's tight, sharing this post to spread the word means the world. 🙏 raceroster.com/events/2026/...
raceroster.com
Help Tyler raise money for participating in 2026 DICK'S Sporting Goods Pittsburgh Marathon Weekend on May 2, 2026
I’m running a half marathon this spring to support ARYSE because their work with immigrant and refugee youth in Pittsburgh really resonates with me. These students face a lot of uncertainty and challe...
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
New piece on the blog—the Texas A&M championship run through the lens of Elo ratings. Three straight 1-seed upsets. 182 Elo points gained in three matches. The model tracking a miracle in real time. The anatomy of a statistical heist. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...
open.substack.com
Where Winning Lives: The Texas A&M Story
The Anatomy of a Statistical Heist
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New piece on the blog—introducing Elo ratings as the foundation for win probability in D1 volleyball. First step in a longer series. Before we can talk about sets, rallies, or individual contributions, we need a shared language for team strength.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
i’m the voice of british left wing politics bsky. many people are saying this.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
New piece on the blog about opponent scouting—how to figure out which weaknesses are actually worth exploiting. Not every edge carries leverage. The framework helps you identify the 2-3 fights worth picking vs the noise that just looks bad on paper.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
we should help ourselves by voting for candidates who don’t even want to win! that’ll help our situation!
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
New piece on the blog about mid-season diagnosis—how to figure out where to focus when you can't fix everything. Running what-if scenarios to see which improvements actually move the needle. Turns out spreading resources thin dilutes impact on your highest-leverage weakness.
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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
New post: Rethinking Standards Most programs evaluate performance the same way: identify a peer group, calculate averages, treat those as benchmarks. It's accessible. It's inherited. But it's worth asking what problem that process actually solves. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/introducin...
nerdabovethenet.substack.com
Introducing Logistic Regression for Volleyball Standards
Rethinking Standards: From Averages to Analytics
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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Nerd Above the Net is live! Most volleyball conversations stop where they should probably begin. This blog exists to ask better questions. First post: Getting Nerdy Above the Net open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov... #volleyball #sportsanalytics
open.substack.com
Getting Nerdy Above the Net: Asking the Right Questions
Thoughtful volleyball analysis, insights, and questions that actually matter.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
teaser for my first piece. kinda surreal that months of planning are finally ready to be put into action 🥰
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Launching tomorrow! Equal parts excited and nervous to finally make this public after months of building 🥰🏐
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
do you think the nazis looked and sounded this bafflingly stupid in real time and have only looked put together and coherent in retrospect bc no one could fathom how people so unbelievably stupid could attain the power necessary to inflict the damage they did?
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
and all of this with a bottom 10 qb in the league. dude's gonna be great.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
we can’t feed kids. we can’t fund schools. we can’t even agree to keep the government open if it means paying for healthcare. where the fuck are we getting money to run venezuela? be fucking serious rn. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
foxnews.com
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
a few days busy with travel, but finally getting to posting my 2026 goals. this year, i've got 35 goals that span six categories: - Physical & Fitness - Learning & Academic - Media & Culture - Volleyball Analytics - Reflection & Intentionality - Giving Back
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
one of my favorite activities at the end of each year is doing a full recap and introspection of my goals. this year, i set 17 goals. some were ambitious, some were silly, they were all meaningful. i achieved 7 of the 17, and i came close on three others.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
over the past two postseasons, i've outscored every team in my league by at least 10 ppg (25 ppg more than the 3rd). in both of the past two seasons, i've also lost the tiebreaker for the final playoff spot by a combined 8 pts. these dudes are so lucky the variance gods hate me 😂😭
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
immediately thought of long chile @craigcalcaterra.bsky.social www.reddit.com/r/mapporncir...
reddit.com
From the mapporncirclejerk community on Reddit: What would you call this hypothetical country?
Explore this post and more from the mapporncirclejerk community
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
sometimes i wonder if i’m actually autistic or if the internet has just convinced me i am, but then i remember that when i was 9 i wrote a SEVENTEEN PAGE, SINGLE SPACED “book” titled Did You Know… in which every sentence was “did you know [baseball player stat].”
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I regret to inform you that kicker ceilings are getting higher every year. Elite kicker weeks keep getting bigger even though the middle hasn’t changed much. How much that turns into fun chaos vs. weekly whiplash depends a lot on your scoring system. #FantasyFootball #FFAnalytics
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
made the sf every money league this year, but the one that's really going to eat me is missing the postseason in my free home league bc: - jason myers scored 24 pts against me (i lost by 4) - cameron dicker scored 20 pts against me last week (lost the tiebreak for seedin by 3)
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
one of my favorite things is tuning into a @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social and hearing the mikes continue a bit that i forget i started during the pandemic 💀😂 @themlg.bsky.social @michaelcaley.bsky.social
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
when i started my home fantasy football league, i started collecting some very basic schedule info like team, points, opponent, points against, etc. i didn't know how to code or anything about modeling, so when i was playing with the data, i made the simplest expected win models imaginable.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
s/o to all of us who bought the dip at 0-2. we are so back y'all 😎
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Reposted by Ty 🏳️‍🌈
Oliver Willis @owillis.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
democrats of all stripes should be rallying around kat abughazaleh asap. it doesnt matter where you stand ideologically. trying to jail dissenters is fundamentally unamerican and 100% fascist. democratic leaders at all levels should be making noise about it. you dont need a poll or focus group.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
yo @sleepernfl.bsky.social have y’all considered focusing less on betting and more on making your fantasy football app functional for fantasy football? this is a weekly occurrence at this point.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
whether or not that’s a catch, it’s silly how effortlessly strong pat is. that was a 40 yard pass without his feet set and his momentum taking him backwards lmao
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
just as we all expected, the daniel jones led colts and mac jones led 49ers are in line for the postseason bye week through 5 games.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
delay of game on 4th down needs to be a loss of down penalty. i am begging the league to burn the fake play to get a free first out of the game. by far a bigger aesthetic issue than the tush push.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
working on a #fantasyfootball shiny app that scrapes public league history and has information like lineup efficiency, all time records, expected win%, and compares seasons through a given week. i’m still brainstorming some other features that might be cool. any of y’all have any suggestions?
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
kraft yac and cheese is clearly superior and doesn't require you to roster mac jones.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
listen, i'm of the opinion that allen is better than lamar, but last night didn't prove anything. allen's fortunate a pass he intended for one wr was tipped by his te and then caught by a third guy for a td. he's also fortunate lamar's rb fumbled.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
probably won’t talk about the game a ton, in general, but my official take on the #Chiefs is that if the defense really is mediocre, this offense is back.
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Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
the outrage and clicks driven from the nfl suspending jalen carter for the chiefs game will feed families.
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