iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

New post: Introducing CONTACT—rally-level win probability Given everything happening right now in this rally, how likely is this team to win the next point? Took longer than expected to build something we could trust. But now we have it. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...

open.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: What Actually Matters

What the model found about which contacts actually shape rally outcomes

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

New post: Training for Leverage—Fifth Sets, Risk-Reward, and How to Prepare for What Actually Matters Win probability models are only useful if they change how you prepare. If they don't change practice, they're just expensive scorekeeping. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...

open.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: Training the Leverage

Working backwards from results to process

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

man, thank god i decided to stop caring about the chiefs after that stadium deal. i'd be crashing out rn with them going def -> def -> def AND shipping out one of their four day 1 or 2 picks lmao

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

jefe living in the future with these announcements lmao

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

New post: The Geometry of Leverage I've been quiet for a few weeks. I was paying an infrastructure tax. SWEEP had a hallucination problem. It would tell you Nebraska had a 40% chance of winning a match they'd literally just lost - so I tore it down. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/where-winn...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: The Geometry of Leverage

How rebuilding SWEEP revealed where Nebraska's advantage collapsed.

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

New post: Introducing SWEEP—Set-Level Win Probability The 2025 Elite Eight: Texas A&M vs Nebraska. Leads didn't stick. Momentum swung wildly. Nothing felt secure. The box score tells us who won. It can't tell us when. That gap matters. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...

open.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: The Living Set

Introducing SWEEP: Translating Score, Rotation, and Leverage into Probability

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

New post: The Big 12 Mystery—Poll Bias, Conference Strength, and What the Ratings Actually Reveal The Big 12 is either a gauntlet of elite programs—or a thick middle with no peak. In Elo's math, that's a double-edged sword. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/ncaa-volle...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: Math, Myth, and the Modern Game

Conference Gauntlets, 5-Set Coin Flips, and the Anatomy of an Ascent

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

New post: The Texas A&M Story—The Anatomy of a S atistical Heist Nebraska was 33-0. They'd lost seven sets all year. When they met Texas A&M in the Elite Eight, the math was dismissive. Nebraska Elo: 2433 A&M Elo: 2218 A&M had a 22% chance. Then they won. open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov...

open.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: The Texas A&M Story

The Anatomy of a Statistical Heist

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

New post: Building the foundation for win probability. Nebraska sweeps Penn State. Penn State beats Pitt in four. Pitt takes a set off Nebraska. How good are these teams, really? nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/where-winn...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Where Winning Lives: The Foundation

Using Elo ratings to quantify team strength across uneven schedules

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

New post: Turning scouting into leverage. You've watched film. Broken down rotations. You know their tendencies. And still: what do we actually attack? Every scouting report lands in the same place—more information than you can use in a single match. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/rethinking...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Rethinking Standards: Turning Scouting into Leverage

How to turn a scouting report into a win probability problem

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

New post: Diagnosing where your team stands and which improvements actually move the needle. Mid-season, results are fine. Box scores tell you what happened. Your eyes tell you the breakdowns. Neither answers: where should we focus? nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/rethinking...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Rethinking Standards: What’s Too Expensive to Ignore

Using win probability to decide where improvement actually matters

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

getting into the nerdiest piece yet here at Nerd Above the Net. methodology for the rethinking standards model drops tomorrow at 10 am est! 🤓

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

New post: What actually drives winning in D1 volleyball? Built a model across 8 years of play-by-play data to explore how process metrics relate to winning sets. The results clarified where leverage lives—and contradicted some assumptions. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/rethinking...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Rethinking Standards: What the Model Reveals

How Process Metrics Shape Winning in Division I Volleyball

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

New post: Rethinking Standards Most programs evaluate performance the same way: identify a peer group, calculate averages, treat those as benchmarks. It's accessible. It's inherited. But it's worth asking what problem that process actually solves. nerdabovethenet.substack.com/p/introducin...

nerdabovethenet.substack.com

Introducing Logistic Regression for Volleyball Standards

Rethinking Standards: From Averages to Analytics

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

Nerd Above the Net is live! Most volleyball conversations stop where they should probably begin. This blog exists to ask better questions. First post: Getting Nerdy Above the Net open.substack.com/pub/nerdabov... #volleyball #sportsanalytics

open.substack.com

Getting Nerdy Above the Net: Asking the Right Questions

Thoughtful volleyball analysis, insights, and questions that actually matter.

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Launching tomorrow! Equal parts excited and nervous to finally make this public after months of building 🥰🏐

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Reposted by Nerd Above the Net

Ty 🏳️‍🌈 @semperty.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

the one i'm most excited about is my vball analytics blog. i'll be revealing more on that at @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social in the next few days, but the short of it is i've finally making public some of the volleyball analytics work I've been sitting on for too long. i'm so pumped for this journey.

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Nerd Above the Net @nerdabovethenet.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

Numbers tell stories, even in volleyball. I dig into kills, blocks, and aces to find the ones that actually matter. Follow along if you want a front row seat for my Substack launch, where I’ll share the full nerdy breakdown. #Volleyball #SportsAnalytics

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