iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 10h

C.J. Stroud could be a better QB fit for Marvin Harrison Jr. because he's much more efficient on in-breaking vs. out-breaking routes. MHJ is also more efficient on in-breakers while Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson are better on out-breakers. Data source: @aaronschatz.com and @ftnfantasy.com

4211

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 14h

The Chiefs could certainly use a contested catch winner, but that is more college Marvin Harrison Jr. than NFL Marvin Harrison Jr.

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 14h

It would just be weird for the Texans to trade for a receiver for 2027 and later when they should get Jayden Higgins back in 2027

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 14h

I vote we reunite Marvin Harrison Jr. and C.J. Stroud even if it would be irresponsible for an 0-4 Texans team to trade for him

3140

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

He's going to need more than a minute of the Anne Arundel County Council meeting to break down what the Ravens are doing wrong with Derrick Henry at the goal line

081

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Also Brock Bowers is a wide receiver, so Mike Ditka still has the rookie tight end receiving yardage record

070

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Here are the 2-point conversion rates I'm seeing on PFR: 2020: 63/131 = 48.1% 2021: 75/154 = 48.7% 2022: 56/119 = 47.1% 2023: 70/127 = 55.1% 2024: 55/135 = 40.7% 2025: 59/129 = 46.1% I'd guess the true league conversion rate is in the 45-48% range. But XPs aren't automatic, either.

110

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

He did start his Eagles tenure calling offensive plays. I agree he's more of a CEO-style coach now, though.

000

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

You proposed that the trailing team might be less likely to score a 2nd TD if a failed 2-point conversion is psychologically deflating. But what if the trailing team becomes more likely to score a 2nd TD if a successful 2-point conversion is psychologically boosting?

120

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I broadly agree that there are assumptions being made in the calculus that may not be true to real life. But it's a cognitive bias to assume that those inaccuracies definitely tilt the math toward conventional wisdom.

220

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

So do most coaches haha. I think most people have a strong impulse to delay losing as long as possible.

230

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

You can win if you go for 2 down 8 in these scenarios: 50% convert * 100% XP on the 2nd TD = 50% win in regulation 50% fail * 50% convert on the 2nd TD to get to OT * 50% win in OT = 12.5% win in OT So going for 2 initially boosts you from a 50% total chance to win to a 62.5% total chance to win.

191

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

You can see why math likes going for 2 when you score a TD to cut your deficit to 8 if you go through a decision tree assuming you're going to eventually get the 2 TDs you need. Even assuming 100% XP conversions, kicking 2 XPs will put you in OT, which gives you a ~50% chance to win...

182

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Me realizing that losing George Pickens or CeeDee Lamb would make Jonathan Mingo their 3rd receiver

2100

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Save his legs for games against the good teams

020

Reposted by Scott Spratt

Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Me watching the Cowboys' tackling attempts tomorrow

112629

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Current point differentials in 2026: Dallas Cowboys: -4 Tampa Bay Bucs: -6

040

Reposted by Scott Spratt

Marcas Grant @marcasg.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Those fans are still in shock over their Yankees getting swept last night.

813918

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

He still wouldn't be 180 lbs. lol

010

Reposted by Scott Spratt

Bradley Woodrum @bradleywoodrum.com · 09/10/2026

I really appreciate the effort from his holiness, but I see right through the Pope's disguise.

A suspicious man has great seats at the White Sox game.

1819825

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Tez Johnson broke DaRon Bland's ankles on that 64-yard catch

260

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

My updated 30-year-old play-caller power rankings: 1. Brad Idzik 2. Declan Doyle 3. David Blough 4. Chris O'Leary 5. Sean Mannion 6. Christian Parker 7. Davis Webb (I needed to get this update in while I could reasonably put a Panthers coach at No. 1.)

190

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Cowboys defenders didn't look remotely interested in trying to tackle Bucky Irving on that 72-yard run

1140

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Or they can still be a really good passing offense with Lamb and Flournoy, add a pass rusher, and then add more stuff

020

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Not sure if this is more insulting to the Tennessee Titans or to Thursday Night Football

0111

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I don't think he's as good as Pickens, of course. I just think the Cowboys should spend the Pickens money in other places on their roster so they can take advantage of the cost savings of a good receiver with another year of 6th-round rookie pick salary.

240

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The FLEX Finder clearly has great taste

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Cowboys don't need to franchise tag George Pickens again because they have Ryan Flournoy

1102

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This is going to sound cheekier than I mean for it to, but is it a surprise that Todd Bowles is bringing blitzes and aggressive coverage tonight? Isn't he top three or so in blitz rate every season?

110

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Big Red has such a big mouth that he makes regular toast look like a Cinnamon Toast Crunch

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Cowboys look as bored as I am

040

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I'm not sure we're allowed to compliment Zac Robinson after Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees made Michael Penix a Pro Bowler with just 2 weeks with him

120

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Bucs offense vs. the Cowboys defense:

060

Reposted by Scott Spratt

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 09/10/2026

That's the 7th DPI drawn by Dak Prescott this year. Jacoby Brissett had 5, nobody else has more than 4. Prescott led the league last year too.

2254

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I should know this, but do quarterbacks get passing DVOA credit for DPIs?

110

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I legitimately think Dak Prescott and Brian Schottenheimer deserve credit for realizing that George Pickens is mercurial and throwing to him twice on the opening drive tonight to get him reengaged after a big CeeDee Lamb game

060

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I wonder if Flores has gotten far enough in his lawsuit that the NFL might now prefer for a team to hire him. It seems like the league isn't going to get it dismissed at this point. And Flores has gotten so undeniable, it's hard to come up with non-discrimination reasons he doesn't have a HC job.

000

Reposted by Scott Spratt

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Things are "We're promoting Thursday Night Football with Emeka Egbuka" dire for the Bucs

2202

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Quarterback play affects winning more than other positions do

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Cardinals strength of schedule is actually increasing from 7th hardest in the first 4 weeks to 5th hardest the rest of the season per DVOA. Source: @aaronschatz.com and @ftnfantasy.com

0121

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

For example design and install plays to react to what the other team is doing. I think most of what we think of as in-game adjustments is really cutting down the team's menu of plays to the subset of plays that they are working or they think will work because of how the game is unfolding.

010

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I think a lot of what you are thinking of as other head coach responsibilities really happen during the week leading up to game day. The head coach is making strategic decisions during the game like whether to go for 4th downs. But even if they weren't calling plays, they wouldn't be able to...

110

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It's not totally black and white. Some of the coaches I think are CEO-style have called plays, but I don't think it was their superpower and they handed it off to their coordinators as soon as they became head coaches. I don't think either Harbaugh brother ever had an NFL off/def coordinator job.

100

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I think it's way harder to be a successful CEO-style head coach in 2026 than it was in 2006 because other teams are going to immediately poach your good play-caller hires even if they're 35 years old

000

Scott Spratt @scottspratt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

My guess is they are going to become more popular head coaching hires after the success Mike Macdonald has had. Jesse Minter and Jeff Hafley got jobs in 2026. And Brian Flores, Anthony Campanile, Jeff Ulbrich, and Chris Shula seem like they could be top candidates in 2027.

000