iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

“Look at all the things your families’ sacrifices have got for me!” How do they not see this???

Reposted by Samosa Cartel

Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

She wrote a handful of the greatest songs ever written, and the first thing so many people think of is not those towering achievements, but how good a person she was and how many people’s lives she improved

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Reposted by Samosa Cartel

Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 22/07/2026

Benjamin Netanyahu is a war criminal.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Well, I dislocated my hip right after this and had to take an ambulance to ER to pop it back in! Lesson learned, don’t mess with George it’s very bad karma!

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

*I believe it’s larger in terms of quality of life wrt to health

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Yeah I don’t agree with that and do agree with you directionally, of course I’d imagine that has to do with the relative gap (if larger or not, tho I think it is larger) and it being so prevalent/aware in social context due to social media and connectivity/ability to share experience across deciles?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Re pre gfc peak vs post, I always try to consider horizon and im not sure where is “fair” as an indexing starting point so I posted multiple. I certainly defer to you but I thought the exercise here was the figure out what the data shows vs the (maybe) prevailing narrative

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

As one of my least favorite people (Bezos) once said, “when the data and narrative don’t match up, you are likely measuring it wrong”. (To belabor the point, I am NOT saying that you are)

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

So, (relative) magnitude as opposed to direction. I am certainly not the expert here (perhaps you are!), again I’m trying to square the circle, as I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss the claims based on (arguably) singular data?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Sorry I didn’t claim everything is terrible now, I think someone else did. Also I wasn’t arguing direction, but relative delta which I *think* is what people are expressing?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Posted elsewhere but: As I THINK we agree that real income is not the only input to quality of life, fwiw here is data on health and life expectancy, indexed by decile, which I’d (obvi) argue is equally or more important than real income for QoL metric.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Posted this in a reply to George but fwiw to a larger audience: As I THINK we agree that real income is not the only input to quality of life, fwiw here is data on health and life expectancy, indexed by decile, which I’d (obvi) argue is equally or more important than real income for QoL metric.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

As I THINK we agree that real income is not the only input to quality of life, fwiw here is data on health and life expectancy, indexed by decile, which I’d (obvi) argue is equally or more important than real income for QoL metric. And yes I’m aware I’m doing something close to data mining :)

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Fair enough haha. How about we discuss over a beer or gym session next time you’re in the Bay Area? Privately, or you’re welcome to publicly whip me again… (fwiw I just feel uncomfortable saying those materially economiclly worse off than me should be happier based on data) be well!

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

You should do an episode of Normal Menn that dives into model inputs/skews, generically what models can miss wrt inputs, start time/horizon considerations, etc! I’d definitely be interested & I think it’d educate people who want to know more about how these things work + what can be oversimplified

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

My last leg to stand on would be that expenditures are perhaps skewed, they don’t spend as much b/c they can’t. also that real income is a slice of quality of life, relative health not accounted for. But really I just feel weird/flippant ascribing real ppl concerns as a vocal minority. But I’m a sap

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

You’re correct. I need to go back to bed. I submit.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

(Background info on PSZ if anyone cares): Piketty, Saez & Zucman (2018)- framework applies differential deflators across the income distribution using national account price indices by expenditure category. results show bottom-50% real income growth looks considerably weaker than Census CPI-adjusted

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

FWIW I asked Claude and the other to deflate using PSZ Dina and index from 1996…I have NO DOUBT WE AGREE but want to illustrate the choice of data changes/drives the takeaway materially (obvi). Sorta like an OAS model haha. TBH we haven’t defined what delta in chart is “a lot” but I think it is?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Yikes lot of typos I’d kindly be curious about the deflator for real & application to each decile thereof, plus other factors that might shape the data such as healthcare expenditure (perhaps they spend less today on it b/c they can’t afford it?) I’d add more but I’m droning on. TY for what you do!

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Sorry for all the jabber but finally I’m just trying to explain that narrative that I believe I can observe in real life vs (I’m not saying you’re saying this) “the bottom are a large vocal majority who exercise their complaints more vocally”

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

just trying to square the circle of this discussion, anecdotes that are very real vs data. Healthcare needs vs healthcare cost for bottom 20% is a real issue (even though healthcare and medical access is inarguably better now wrt quality of life, perhaps that’s not well captured in the data or CPI?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

But moreso perhaps the difference in the overall feeling that there are people really struggling vs the quality of life data isn’t well captured in these? Like what’s the deflator for the real income? CPI? I’d kindly submit the notion that cpi is not a fair metric to apply equally to all deciles?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

This want an attack! Of course quality of life for all of us is higher. And yes on that chart it certainly looks like my thesis that the relative gap is smaller than I’d have anticipated. Could you kindly shrink that x axis to maybe the last 30 years? Or I can later (it’s 4am here)

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Yep agreed, poverty rate is an entirely different point

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Yikes man. Chill out a bit. Jesus

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

TBF I both believe what we said to be true but also want to highlight that we (or at least me), were I to harp on this point emphasizing medians, can be both correct at the top line and flippant coming from the position I’m in and “speaking for” those in the bottom deciles wrt quality of life

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

But, do we not care about the degree of lower quality of life the bottom decile or two are experiencing, even if “offset” by the upper or median? And isn’t there the idea of “we’re safer and better off when our neighbors are? Arguably we should care MORE about the bottom 20 than the median?

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

George, we mostly agree on almost everything, we work in similar fields (macro/MBS PM) and I probably have liked more of your posts than anyone, but does it not concern you, as it does I, that we say these points from a position of extreme privilege? Like yes, I value the topline data of course

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Very sorry you have to endure idiocy like this. Also…WHAT:

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Reposted by Samosa Cartel

Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

👇🎯💯 This is the inescapable conclusion that <everyone> in 🇺🇸 politics & the entire national media cannot bring themselves to make. There is nothing Trump can do at this point to un-disqualify himself, & there are no laws Congress can pass to fix it. The <only> mechanism is impeachment & removal.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Never mind that it’s be literally the world’s simplest strategy

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

As well, earnings releases DO NOT OCCUR during market hours. I am a practitioner and quant. If the free alpha you think you’re showing here existed, everyone would be rich. Instead most quant fund single strategies have an IR of about .3-.5. You need to find another angle man

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

All of which, you as a holder from the night before, receive. Like, yours is an absolutely insane takeaway without including the very basics of market beta!!!

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

I see nowhere where you removed market beta which moves mostly from us Econ data which is BEFORE market hours.

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

“I’ve been to a protest”. I WISH the journalist had asked which protest. I can imagine seeing him waffle in the chair for 3 minutes before thinking of something he perceives as charitable

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Yes it can be explained. Do that for the entire spx500. Most moves happen when economic data is released, 1 hour prior to the market opening.

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Reposted by Samosa Cartel

Mark Joseph Stern @mjsdc.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

The Republican position now appears to be that you have a constitutional right to openly carry a gun in public, unless you do so while expressing a view that the government dislikes, in which case the secret police can shoot you to death on the spot.

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Reposted by Samosa Cartel

Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

By who? Who shot the person dead? You saw the video. We all know a federal agent shot a man dead who was prone on the ground. Also, it's not "according to officials." It's according to verified video seen with your eyes. Not saying what anyone can obviously see with their eyes is a form of lying.

NYT push alert: "A person was shot dead today during a struggle with federal agents in Minneapolis, according to officials."

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Have to admit I was SHOCKED it wasn’t a yt kid!

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Samosa Cartel @samosacartel.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Workers’ strike. We have to. They will only care to change if the economy (and markets) get hit and stay hit at LEAST as a legitimate threat. We HAVE to do something. We HAVE to do more than that but that’s the easiest non-violent thing we can ALL do.

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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

No, arrest the murderer now. If he walks they will keep killing us.

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