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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

So with the NY poll last night I decided to do a quick analysis of the Bay Area, looking at every municipality over 5k population in DRA Pretty clear trend: the wealthier the municipality, the worst Prop 50 did relative to Harris. Atherton swung nearly 14 points right!

Scatterplot comparing the swing in Bay Area municipalities from the 2024 Presidential Election to Prop. 50 vs. median household income

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Extremely funny that there is only a 3% gap between my most and least similar cities. I am the General American Dialect

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I think autism scrambles these things because every quiz like this thinks I’m from California

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Meanwhile Horry County is once again a nuke for Trump-endorsed candidates (it was one of only three counties to back his initial endorsement in the Gov primary)

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Wasn’t able to watch SC’s primary but I find it very funny that Greenville hates the Graham family so much that it voted for Ralph Norman by more than his own district

Greenville County, Norman 67 to Graham 33

York County, in Norman’s Congressional district, Norman 64 to Graham 36

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Illinois + Texas versions

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I think I’m pretty willing to live in most cities of some reasonable size. I don’t think I’d give any state an absolute never

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Briefly looking away from Wisconsin: what an absolute humiliation in CT-01. He won't lose as bad as Goldman did in NY-10 but that's because Lander was Goldman's only opponent, Larson is currently getting a lower voteshare than Goldman did

The Democratic primary for Connecticut's First Congressional district, incumbent John Larson trails with only 32.7% of the vote to challenger Luke Bronin's 54.4%.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Stearns County (St. Cloud) comes in at Flanagan+16 with almost everything in. Given that Craig was supposed to dominate outside of the Twin Cities, this seems very encouraging for Flanagan

Stearns County election results for Minnesota Senate primary, Peggy Flanagan has 57% while Angie Craig has 41%

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Also extremely good numbers for progressives in the race to replace Craig, there was some worry that Little/Berg would split the progressive vote but that doesn't seem to have happened

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Despite narrowly trailing in the county mayoral race, Dems look to have flipped two seats on the Hamilton County Commission, which would move the commission from 8-3 to a narrow 6-5. (Trump+13 county) Both of the Rs here were incumbents!

Hamilton County Commission District 11 results, Dem Montrell Besley leads 55.8 to 44.2

Hamilton County Commission District 8 results, Dem Joshua Wichman leads 55.2 to 44.8

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Current state of the gubernatorial primary composition, using the NYT's numbers. The smallest shift from 2024 margin was in Ottawa County, which is still 5 points left of where it was in 2024

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Probably the best sign for Dems last night: in every county that was under Trump+20 in 2024 but one, more votes were cast in the (relatively boring) Dem gubernatorial primary than the more competitive Republican gubernatorial primary

A chart showing vote totals for the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries in various Michigan counties. In all but one, the Democratic total exceeds the Republican total.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Fascinating that the UP seems to be much more progressive than other rural white-majority parts of Michigan

A map of results in the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, El-Sayed leads in most counties in the Upper Peninsula

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Half in now and Hassan is doing *worse*

The Republican primary for Michigan’s 8th Congressional district. Trump-endorsed candidate Amir Hassan trails Thomas J. Smith, who dropped out in mid-July, 50.3-33.3.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Imagine spending two million dollars of your own money to come in third

Results for the Republican primary in Michigan’s 1st Congressional district. Incumbent Jack Bergman is leading with 73.6% of the vote.

Campaign finance reports for Michigan’s 1st district. Third-place candidate Matthew DenOtter spent $1,821,373, far more than either of the other two candidates.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Good sign of how absurdly Islamophobic Republicans are: the Trump-endorsed candidate in #MI08 is currently trailing a guy who dropped out in mid-July

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Early but if this holds, humiliating for MO R’s to be losing BRANSON this badly

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Very early but Missouri’s attempt to crush ballot measures might be heading for a landslide defeat (yes would require ballot measures to win every district, in order to stop liberal measures from winning)

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Extremely funny to have a primary scramble involving a sitting US representative, the sitting State House speaker, and the first statewide runoff in state history only for the guy who is currently the governor to win renomination

Results for the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary. Larry Rhoden, the incumbent governor, has been declared the winner and leads by an overwhelming margin.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

This has inspired me to change my profile pic to my favorite (unfortunately extinct) bird

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

No one will want to hear it but this is the realest thing I've seen in a while

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Very funny primary matchup in Maryland

Democratic primary in the 4th district for the House of Delegates in Maryland, the surnames of the candida

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Again, this is outright false. From October, two months before Crockett even entered the primary: www.texastribune.org/2025/10/01/t...

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

I'm not the biggest fan of non-contiguous districts as a concept but it did allow me to create this objectively very funny Illinois State Senate map (the red is all one district, just non-contiguous)

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Boschee is now up 20, looks like a blowout. Pretty safe to say Dems will hold Fargo mayor

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

With a decent chunk of the vote in for Fargo’s mayoral election, Dem-NPL State Senator Josh Boschee is leading Republican-backed candidate Michelle Turnberg by 8

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Interesting Lowcountry/Upcountry split emerging in the Republican Senate primary in SC

Graham dominating Lowcountry SC while barely winning upstate SC

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Seems pretty clear that early votes skewed heavily Republican in CA, something like this isn’t gonna hold

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

This is every county Trump won in 2024 that voted for the Democrat in last year’s PSC elections. I don’t expect all or even most of these to flip tonight (especially not Paulding or Columbia) but the closer it looks to this the more bullish I get for November

A map of Georgia showing the counties that voted for Trump in 2024 and the Democratic candidates for the Public Service Commission in 2025.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Louisiana as a whole is currently only R+8 in primary composition. The state was Trump+22 in 2024. Still waiting on early/absentee from Caddo Parish, but that should only bring down the R margin

Overall primary electorate for Louisiana, with 337,892 total votes in the Democratic primary and 396,514 in the Republican primary.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

I'm sorry what the actual fuck (Trump+30 parish)

St. Bernard Parish - 2,631 votes in the Democratic Senate primary versus only 2,465 in the Republican Senate primary

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Would not be shocked if this is a mistake or if there's some kind of local reason for this but Dems are currently outvoting Republicans in Trump+28 Pointe Coupee Parish

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

St. Landry (Trump+18!) is currently at D+2 in Senate primary composition

St. Landry Parish - 6,433 votes for the Democratic Senate primary versus 6,161 votes for the Republican Senate primary

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

St. James (Trump+1, another 2024 flip) currently at an insane D+41 in Senate primary composition

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Iberville Parish (Trump+1, was a narrow 2024 flip) is currently at D+26 in primary composition

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Despite the confusion of canceling the House primaries and the much more exciting Republican Senate primary, LA Dems appear to be getting some really impressive turnout in completed parishes. For example, majority-black Madison Parish was only Harris+6 but is D+33 in Senate primary votes now

Results from Madison Parish, Louisiana, with 1,540 total votes in Democratic Senate primary and 665 total votes in the hotly-contested Republican Senate primary.

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

👏THE EVIL IS DEFEATED👏

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

The demographic transition arguably started in post-revolutionary France, but it’s only in the past few decades that they’ve dropped below replacement in countries. He’s technically correct on that individual note, though still very wrong on his broader point

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

You don't have to cross the bay. A map like this gives you 8-0 with the least blue seat being D+20 and the only body of water crossed is the Susquehanna

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

@govpritzker.illinois.gov davesredistricting.org/join/03008b6...

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

It's surprisingly easy to do, and you can even maintain decent-ish minority representation. This map I drew this morning retains two >40% black districts and one district that's around 40% Hispanic, not too far off from the current map

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

We also have Arizona for some reason

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Can someone please introduce NYT to the concept of exurbs

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

According to the NYT DuPage is now an urban county

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Nonpartisan Supreme Court races like the one in Arkansas are always fun because sometimes you'll get random rural counties libbing out for no apparent reason

Map showing the results in Conway County, Arkansas in the Supreme Court election. Liberal candidate John Adams leads 53-47.

The most recent presidential election results in Conway County, Arkansas. Trump won the county 69-29 in 2024

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Wasn’t really paying attention to this one but Sylvia Garcia is doing kind of horrible here Makes sense with the redraw ig

Results of the Democratic primary for Texas’ 29th Congressional district. Incumbent Sylvia Garcia leads with 56.1% of the vote against former State House representative Jarvis Johnson

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Ryan @ryan62.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Thank you Wesley Hunt for humiliating yourself so Cornyn and Paxton can have three more months of mudslinging 🙏

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