nulliusinverba.podbean.com
Episode 47: Inductio et Deductio | Nullius in Verba
In this episode, we delve into induction and deduction and talk further about issues related to generalizability.
Shownotes
Popper, K. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. (1953). Hutchinson & C...
!["On December 2, 1783, then-Commander-in-Chief George Washington penned: “America is open to receive not only the Opulent & respected Stranger, but the oppressed & persecuted of all Nations & Religions.”1
More than two centuries later, Congress reaffirmed President Washington’s vision by establishing the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program. See 8 U.S.C. § 1254a (TPS statute). It provides humanitarian relief to foreign nationals in the United States who come from disaster-stricken countries. It also brings in substantial revenue, with TPS holders generating $5.2 billion in taxes annually. See Part VI.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem has a different take. [screenshot of tweet].](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nwnlnixtjh3qhkwpz2uy5uwv/bafkreicrroq5taft777rmau2ffjlsphbcatlxnwwigf2yekoke533yycim)
![has terminated every TPS country designation to have reached her desk—twelve countries up,
twelve countries down. See Section IV.A.2. Her conclusion that Haiti (a majority nonwhite
country) faces merely “concerning” conditions cannot be squared with the “perfect storm of
suffering” and “staggering” “humanitarian toll” described in page-after-page of the Certified
Administrative Record (CAR). See Section IV.A.3.a. She ignored Congress’s requirement that
she “review the conditions” in Haiti only “after” consulting “with appropriate agencies.” 8
U.S.C. § 1254a(b)(3)(A); see Section IV.A.1. Indeed, she did not consult other agencies at all.
See id. Her “national interest” analysis focuses on Haitians outside the United States or here
illegally, ignoring that Haitian TPS holders already live here, and legally so. See Section
IV.A.3.b. And though she states that the analysis must include “economic considerations,” she
ignores altogether the billions Haitian TPS holders contribute to the economy. See id.
The Government’s primary response is that the TPS statute gives the Secretary
unbounded discretion to make whatever determination she wants, any way she wants. And, yes,
the statute does grant her some discretion. But not unbounded discretion. To the contrary,
Congress passed the TPS statute to standardize the then ad hoc temporary protection system—to
replace executive whim with statutory predictability. See Section I.A.
As to irreparable harm, the Government contends that, at most, the harms to Haitian TPS
holders are speculative. But the Department of State (State) warns [screenshot]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nwnlnixtjh3qhkwpz2uy5uwv/bafkreid3cmawech25ummuj2tjvgxsrvufma2kmrijlfpglalwddd3qkikq)
![4-panel comic. (1) [Person 1 with ponytail flanked by person with short hair and another person speaking into microphone at podium] PERSON 1: In the early 2010s, researchers found that many major scientific results couldn’t be reproduced. (2) PERSON 1: Over a decade into the replication crisis, we wanted to see if today’s studies have become more robust. (3) PERSON 1: Unfortunately, our replication analysis has found exactly the same problems that those 2010s researchers did. (4) [newspaper with image of speakers from previous panels] Headline: Replication Crisis Solved](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreibwuu57ullc7vacjyno6c5z3gtyakkg2qub6cn3dbbjdpn2kaowmi)
![5-panel comic. (1) [teacher with long hair next to whiteboard] TEACHER: I’m supposed to give you the tools to do good science. (2) [teacher addressing students] But what *are* those tools? Methodology is hard and there are so many ways to get incorrect results. What is the magic ingredient that makes for good science? (3) TEACHER: To figure it out, I ran a regression with all the factors people say are important: [embedded list in sub-panel, cut off at end] Outcome variable: correct scientific results. Predictors: collaboration; skepticism of others’ claims; questioning your own beliefs; trying to falsify hypotheses; checking citations; statistical rigor; blinded analysis; financial disclosure; open data (4) TEACHER: The regression says two ingredients are the most crucial: 1) genuine curiosity about the answer to a question, and 2) ammonium hydroxide. (5) STUDENT: Wait, why did *ammonia* score so high? How did it even get on the list? LONG HAIR: ...And now you’re doing good science!](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cz73r7iyiqn26upot4jtjdhk/bafkreigzaphhj4mfgfrxddlvdmw47335gnwzqbfqvrnff5x4oovgpf36nq)
