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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17h

A pop-up Super PAC is spending six figures on mailers backing a socialist running as an independent in the Ohio Senate race against Husted and Brown. We won’t know the donors for a while but there are signs it’s a GOP-backed effort.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17h

The mail vendor on the filing, Seven Farms, shares an address with the South Carolina gubernatorial campaign of Republican Lt. Gov. Pam Evette. The same address also lists Whistlestop Strategies, a vendor with many Republican clients including MAGA Inc.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17h

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The Cornell Daily Sun breaks some news — Cornell Police made a drug-related arrest at the Chi Phi house the night *before* the alleged assault took place. Drug violations can result in immediate interim suspension, but that doesn’t seem to have happened. www.cornellsun.com/article/2026...

cornellsun.com

CUPD Made Drug Arrest at Chi Phi 22 Hours Before the Alleged Sexual Assault

Records show Cornell knew of drug activity at the Chi Phi house 22 hours before a former student alleges she was assaulted there.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The crime log accessed by The Sun only lists “drugs” and notes an arrest. But The Sun also flags that a Title IX investigation document referenced a ketamine overdose at Chi Phi “on or about Oct. 18, 2024,” which would have been right around when the police reported the arrest.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

cornellsun.com

CUPD Made Drug Arrest at Chi Phi 22 Hours Before the Alleged Sexual Assault

Records show Cornell knew of drug activity at the Chi Phi house 22 hours before a former student alleges she was assaulted there.

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There are a lot of eyes on Cornell right now. It’s moments like this where having an independent student press is most important, but doing that work has never been more difficult. Please support The Cornell Daily Sun in its mission for truth and accountability.

cornellsun.com

Support the Sun! - The Cornell Daily Sun

The Cornell Daily Sun - Independent Since 1880.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

cornellsun.com

Support the Sun! - The Cornell Daily Sun

The Cornell Daily Sun - Independent Since 1880.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

In 2022, Siena’s September Texas poll had Abbott leading Beto, 50-43, and their October poll had Abbott 52-43. He won, 55-44. Beto led in just one public poll of that race, in November 2021, and never polled higher than 46 percent.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Between their last poll (7/27-30), which had Abbott up 1 over Hinojosa in the gov race, and this one (7/8-7/11), Abbott has outspent her $22 million to $2 million on advertising, per AdImpact.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

New Siena College/ReconMR TEXAS poll is absolutely brutal for Republicans—could be a generational wipeout if it comes to pass: SEN Talarico 49 Paxton 43 GOV Hinojosa (D) 49 Abbott (R) 45 Generic ballot R47 D46 9/8-11, 614 LV, live caller/text-to-web, MoE 4.3% reconmr.com/wp-content/u...

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

“All US Senators are requested to return to the chamber.” They had to make an announcement over the PA system at Griffith Stadium during the 1964 Washington Senators home opener to get pro-Civil Rights US senators back to the Capitol to beat a southern quorum call.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

This is DC’s version of Barbenheimer

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

🚨 Inside Elections House Ratings moves: CA21 (Costa-D) Likely D→Solid D CA45 (Tran-D) Tilt D→Lean D CO5 (Crank-R) Likely R→Lean R KY6 (Barr-R) Solid R→Likely R NJ9 (Pou-D) Lean D→Likely D NV2 (Amodei-R) Solid R→Likely R SC1 (Mace-R) Solid R→Likely R TX15 (De La Cruz-R) Lean R→Tilt R

insideelections.com

Inside Elections

Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The Rand Paul-affiliated Protect Freedom PAC is airing what looks like an entirely AI-generated ad backing Republican Catalina Lauf in the FL-19 GOP primary. Includes fake images of her on stage with Trump and with a Secret Service detail. Disclaimer at the end.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

A few Democratic candidates have also received support from the web, which is largely focused on races in the Western US and Republican-leaning territory, including in Oklahoma and Kansas. Several state-level PACs supporting moderate Republicans are also linked, in MT, WY & ID.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

NEW: This cycle’s highest-profile independent candidates (Bodnar, Hill etc) all have something in common: a dense network of Democratic donors and dark money groups channeling millions of dollars toward their super PACs. My effort to untangle the web: insideelections.com/untangling-t...

insideelections.com

Untangling the Democratic Dark Money Web Funding Independent Candidates

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

IA-GOV: Toss-up ➡️ Tilt Democratic (flip) IA-SEN: Lean GOP ➡️ Tilt GOP IA-02: Likely GOP ➡️ Lean GOP IA-03: Tilt GOP ➡️ Toss-up State Auditor Rob Sand's rising tide is lifting all Democratic boats in the Hawkeye State. Read more in this week's issue: insideelections.com

insideelections.com

Inside Elections

Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

We aren’t talking enough about the rapid advancement in potato chip technology. Not too long ago all we had was plain, BBQ, or sour cream and onion. But today…

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Something to keep an eye on: @aoc.bsky.social has quietly become far and away the best fundraiser in the House. She's always been strong — 7th in 2024, 10th in 2022, 5th in 2020 — but this year she's lapping everyone but the Speaker and could do than too by the end of the cycle.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

If Mills had actually gotten back in the primary when the sexting story broke and barnstormed the state in the final two weeks of the race it would have demonstrated more killer instinct and desire to win than she showed the entire time she was a candidate.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

This kind of thing is too cute by half and emblematic of what sank Mills in the first place. Not mounting a serious or energetic campaign and hoping people vote for you anyways because your name is there. Wasn’t enough to beat Platner and doesn’t speak well to a general either.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

📺Coming up on @velshi.com at the top of the hour to talk the Texas Senate race with actual Texan @ktumulty.bsky.social — tune in!

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

New poll from Slingshot Strategies (D) for Texas Public Opinion Research Talarico 47 Paxton 44 Brown (L) 1 w/undecideds pushed Talarico 48 Paxton 45 Brown 2 Talarico 47 fav/40 unfav Paxton 38/57 Trump +10 electorate, R+19 on party ID 1670 LV, 5/27-28 drive.google.com/file/d/1lCia...

drive.google.com

TPOR_Post_Runoff_Final_Topline_5.29.26.pdf V4.pdf

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Galen Druke @galendruke.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

NEW POD: The weaker Trump gets nationally, the more GOP lawmakers will be incentivized to break with him, and the more Trump will want to enforce party loyalty. Call him a lame duck with teeth. @rubashkin.bsky.social and I talked about this and much more on the latest pod!

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Looks like ActBlue has shut off Maureen Galindo’s ability to fundraise on their platform

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Looks like ActBlue has shut off Maureen Galindo’s ability to fundraise on their platform

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Coming up on @cspanwj.bsky.social to talk tonight’s primaries at the top of the hour — tune in!

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

New Kansas poll released by the Patrick Schmidt campaign finds a surprisingly close general election vs. GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall 49 Schmidt 45 Trump fav/unfav 45/51 Marshall fav/unfav 35/42 500 LVs, 4/23-27, mixed mode Schmidt is running in a crowded Dem primary

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932 - the longest such streak in the US. Democrats targeted the race in 2020 and polling showed a competitive contest between Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier, but she ultimately lost by 11 points.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

🚨New Inside Elections Senate Ratings: 🔴Ohio (Husted, R) moves from Lean GOP to Tilt GOP 🔴Nebraska (Ricketts, R) moves from Solid GOP to Likely GOP 🔴South Carolina (Graham, R) moves from Solid GOP to Likely GOP

insideelections.com

2026 Senate Overview (April 23, 2026): Democratic Majority Within Reach

Democrats are likely to pick up between 2 and 4 seats, and potentially the Senate majority.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Burchett is right: the most DC thing ever *is* a member of Congress blaming the city for something he and his colleagues did themselves.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Big picture: Democrats now favored in 216 House districts Republicans favored in 210 districts Toss-up races in 9 districts

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

🚨NEW @InsideElections Virginia ratings: VA1 Solid Dem VA2 Tilt Dem VA3 Solid Dem VA4 Solid Dem VA5 Solid Dem VA6 Lean Dem VA7 Solid Dem VA8 Solid Dem VA9 Solid GOP VA10 Solid Dem VA11 Solid Dem www.insideelections.com/news/article...

insideelections.com

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift Toward Democrats

Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Quite surreal to read staffers and a congresswoman strategizing on how to avoid giving answers to my own questions. Here Cherfilus-McCormick's district chief tells the press secretary to be as "vague as possible with no specifics" in her answers.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Tbt: Cherfilus-McCormick insisted on including a line in her office’s statement to me disavowing knowledge of her own campaign’s actions or plans. In the next text, she dictated her campaign’s next move. Elsewhere, she and staffers talked office & campaign business in the same thread.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Nearly 4 years ago I wrote the first story detailing Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's shady finances and potential breach of House ethics rules. Her office stonewalled me and tried to lead me off course. Today, she resigned. What a ride it's been!

insideelections.com

The Congresswoman and the Taxpayer-funded TV Ads

How a Florida congresswoman used taxpayer funds for TV ads.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

More Hispanic-majority areas in NJ-11 special: Dover, Morris County (77% Hispanic) 2020: Biden 67-32 (+35) 2024: Harris 54-41 (+13) 2025: Sherrill 66-29 (+37) *** 2026: Mejia 71-29 (+42) Turnout in Dover was about 1/4 of 2024, vs 1/3 for the district overall.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Checking in on some majority-Hispanic areas in the NJ-11 special election. Belleville Township (50.2% Hispanic) 2020: Biden 61-38 (+23) 2024: Harris 51-47 (+4) 2025: Sherrill 63-37 (+26) *** 2026: Mejia 65-35 (+30)

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

🚨We're hiring🚨 Inside Elections is looking to hire a Reporter/Analyst to help us cover the most competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial races around the country. Is that you? If so, you should apply! DMs are open for questions as well.

insideelections.com

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

*Great* opportunity to work with the best people. Highly recommend this for an early-career elections analyst.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

insideelections.com

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Reposted by Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Overall, Shawn Harris improved upon Kamala Harris's GA-14 margin by 25%. He lost by 12 while she lost by 37. But in the five most Hispanic precincts in the district, he improved upon her margin by a whopping 42%. He won them by 28% while she lost them by 14%.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

In majority Hispanic Antioch precinct, Harris won 67-33% tonight. That’s 4 points better than Democrats did combined in the first round, and 46 points better than the 2024 President margin of Trump+12.

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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Democrats actually did even better in heavily Hispanic Dalton than in the first round, which was already a massive swing from Kamala’s 2024 performance. Shawn Harris won these two Hispanic-majority precincts by 73% — +3 from in March and a whopping 51% improvement over 2024.

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