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Rory Johnston

@roryjohnston.bsky.social
39K followers 318 following 2.8K posts

oil market researcher founder of CommodityContext.com former bank economist markets, code, barbecue

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Reposted by Rory Johnston
Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Trump’s attempt to get Russian energy bailout? “‘I cannot overstate how much of a nothing burger this is,’ Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com.”
reuters.com
Trump says Russia to supply diesel to US and global market
President Donald Trump ​said on Friday that Russia had agreed to immediately supply diesel to US and global markets in an effort to lower fuel prices ahead of ‌the US midterm elections, although analy...
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw41w26
commoditycontext.com
Oil Context Weekly (W41)
Crude rises as most intense pace of Iranian shipping strikes of the war reverses previous recovery in oil flowing through the Strait, while the White House grows ever-more desperate on diesel
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rises as most intense pace of Iranian shipping strikes of the war reverses previous recovery in oil flowing through the Strait, while the White House grows ever-more desperate on diesel. Summary below, full report in replies
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Reposted by Rory Johnston
Brighton Capital @brightoncap.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
"Oil Was Pouring Through the Strait of Hormuz Again... BUT Iran’s targeting of ships has improved...making transits through the Strait of Hormuz riskier" Free link and comment from @roryjohnston.bsky.social Landed values at final destination must be 💲🚀 www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Spoke with CBC this morning about the latest developments in the the Strait of Hormuz, the broader oil market, and what it means for you and your wallet at the pump. Watch:
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw40w26
commoditycontext.com
Oil Context Weekly (W40)
Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again Summary below, full report in reply.
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Reposted by Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 ⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀 Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...
commoditycontext.com
Diesel Danger Zone
Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as governments scramble
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
the typos are always in the last-minute changes I make to the bullets every.time.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
thanks, fixed.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 ⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀 Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...
commoditycontext.com
Diesel Danger Zone
Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as governments scramble
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Read the full piece here about why a US diesel export ban is a cursed non-solution to our current crisis. newrepublic.com/article/2159...
newrepublic.com
Banning Diesel Exports Won’t Solve Trump’s Biggest Problem
The president has floated the idea as a way to lower costs. In the long term, that strategy may backfire.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Spoke with the @newrepublic.com’s @gracesegers.bsky.social about the diesel crisis and how consumers can’t get away from the fuel even if they wanted
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back to fresh all-time highs. Now at ~$228/bbl in New York Harbor, outstripping the prior all-time set two weeks ago.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Still wouldn’t have believed you.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
“Hormuz oil flows can’t possible be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100!” Brother, if you had told an oil analyst in January that Hormuz flows were still down 7 MMbpd after >200 days of war—with the East-West pipeline hobbled—and oil was ONLY $100 they’d have looked at you like
static.klipy.com
Shia La Beouf: Are You On Drugs? (Transformers)
ALT: Shia La Beouf: Are You On Drugs? (Transformers)
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw39w26
commoditycontext.com
Oil Context Weekly (W39)
Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉📈📉 Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity. Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Hi, Reuters, quick note: WE DO NOT MEASURE OIL FLOW IN BARRELS PER WEEK
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The last time 30-year yields were this high:
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Widening gap between US (yellow) and Chinese (green) retail diesel prices year to date. NYMEX diesel (dark blue) and Singapore gasoil (light blue) futures prices included for reference.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw38w26
commoditycontext.com
Oil Context Weekly (W38)
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl. Summary below, full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hey, Iran, buddy, I know we almost single-handedly neutered your Hormuz oil weapon with our big ol' Beijing Swing in your moment of greatest existential need (so awkward, right, because we're such good friends?!) but could you do us a solid and get your Houthi pals to cut it out?
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
you inspired me bsky.app/profile/rory...
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
US Secretary of Energy // US Secretary of Transportation
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Imagine US policy in the Middle East plunging the world into energy crisis? IMAGINE?!
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yeah, I'm personally a big fan of hare-brained strategic pipeline schemes but no doubt that in terms of pure comparative advantage Canada should be shipping to Asia and the USGC should be exporting products to Europe.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Confirmed transits flatlined over the past two days, but they'll be revised higher, so Sunday's high-water mark is a good best estimate of current flow pace. And to be clear: that's still not actually enough oil!
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits. The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
*42 gallons 🙂
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
ALL-TIME HIGH DIESEL CRACK The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record. The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Dated Brent (the physical spot price) closed above $130/bbl yesterday. Higher than all but a few days in 2008/2022/April 2026.
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Reposted by Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...
commoditycontext.com
The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products
Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
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Reposted by Rory Johnston
repetitiveuser.bsky.social @repetitiveuser.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This is THE most important question and the answer to it is going to dictate what the outcome ends up looking like worldwide. @roryjohnston.bsky.social really knows his shit
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...
commoditycontext.com
The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products
Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
So if the East-West Pipeline is down for long and the Saudis run out of West Coast inventories, then the hit to the market today vs last week is about 4 MMbpd (~4%)
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
So 3.5 MMbpd was the incremental swing from the Gulf to the Red Sea. That 5.5 MMbpd export pace sank sharply in August following Houthi maritime ban, but had begun climbing back—latest at ~4 MMbpd.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Lots of questions and confused numbers out there, so to clarify: Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a theoretical max capacity of 7 MMbpd. The highest sustained Saudi West Coast export pace we've seen during the conflict is ~5.5 MMbpd, which is 3.5 MMbpd higher than the ~2 MMbpd prewar norm.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Crude prices pop, pop back toward Thursday highs to kick off the week.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The thing about commodities markets experiencing acute supply deficits is that they’ll continue getting tighter until said deficit flips to a real surplus. A small deficit, while comforting, doesn’t actually solve the problem, it just slows the blaze. Hormuz still gotta *open*
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
We discussed the latest resurrection of Keystone XL; whether Canada can fill all the proposed capacity; the increasing competition between private-sector and strategic pipelines; and the return of Venezuelan heavy crude and if it poses a meaningful threat to Canadian barrels in U.S. refineries.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with Rob Wilson, President of East Daley Analytics, for a deep dive into the rapidly changing North American oil infrastructure landscape. Listen on your favourite platform, or watch: youtu.be/8uz0nXkkYsA?...
youtu.be
Keystone XL Is Back—But North America’s Oil Map Has Changed
YouTube video by CLEAR COMMODITY NETWORK
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Reposted by Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw37w26
commoditycontext.com
Oil Context Weekly (W37)
Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Dated Brent crude closed yesterday above $120/bbl. Highest level since April.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Time to bring back out the full Brent crude physical-through-financial curve chart. This is where we closed yesterday. Dated Brent (physical spot, near-term delivery) > $120 per barrel.
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Very simple: you're talking about crude oil, I'm talking about diesel. Diesel is currently ~double the price of crude. bsky.app/profile/rory...
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