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FO Exclusive: The Looming Global Food Crisis - How Hunger and Famine Will Trigger Instability
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, examine how the US–Israeli war against Iran could precipitate a global food crisis. Disrupted energy and fertilizer supplies, rising shipping costs, weakening currencies and an exceptionally powerful El Niño threaten harvests around the world. Atul and Glenn warn that the resulting hunger could trigger social unrest, sovereign defaults and political upheaval, particularly across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Food inflation threatens political stability As pointed out repeatedly by Atul and Glenn, the Hormuz crisis has caused a massive energy and fertilizer crisis. This global crisis is increasing food inflation. Monetary policies are worsening this inflation. International staples such as wheat, corn and soybeans are priced in dollars. As FOI has pointed out repeatedly, post-Covid monetary easing debased the dollar. As many have noticed, groceries cost far more than before. In poorer countries, this inflation is a lot worse. Many currencies in emerging markets are depreciating against the dollar. Thanks to the exchange-rate multiplier effect, food prices are rising in many poorer countries even faster than in the US. Note that high food prices helped trigger...
