Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Wanna bet that UK payrolls are as weak as currently published? 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 09/10/2026Lord O'Neil commented in the FT today that the UK's bordering on strong growth deserves more comment... Well, hello, Mr. O'Neil! Grab yourself a Pantheon trial. We're talking about it. A lot. #ukeconomy 042 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026I mean its not strong but steadying has got to be a result in these conditions. 120 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Well, 10 years is quite a lengthy investment horizon.... 010 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026That matters for the MPC, as the 'trade-off' seems limited, so far. REC now fits other surveys showing job growth stabilising, while pay growth looks stuck around 3.5-to-4.0%. Slack is building only slowly, if at all and inflation heading to double target. 030 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 08/10/2026UK labour market looks to be finding its feet, with REC survey showing permanent placements balance at 4-year high in Sep., private vacancies rising for the first time in 2 years, staff availability increasing at the slowest pace in three. Hardly booming—but no longer weakening. 3207 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026UK disinflation was incomplete before the latest energy shock. Progress had stalled on several measures, and July and August brought, necessarily very tentative as it's only two months' data, warning signs. www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-inf...linkedin.comUK inflation: from acute to chronic… with a tentative warningHas UK inflation really been heading comfortably back to target? The bulk of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has been arguing in the affirmative for some time—but for the war we'd be s... 010 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026They may not even make it to New Year without some sort of forced response if the global bond sell off continues. 010 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Oh boy. It’s too politically hard to tighten now so best to create months of uncertainty and end up delaying yet more tightening to an election year that already has a lot of tightening… sure thing. www.ft.com/content/9df5... Healey set to delay difficult choices with ‘breathing space’ UK Budgetft.comHealey set to delay difficult choices with ‘breathing space’ UK BudgetChancellor expected to focus statement on targeted help for households and businesses rather than tax rises on the scale of recent budgets 160 0
Reposted by Rob WoodAndy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Thorough and even-handed post from @robwoodecon.bsky.social on why, in his view, the UK's inflation problem is chronic rather than acute www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-inf...linkedin.comUK inflation: from acute to chronic… with a tentative warningHas UK inflation really been heading comfortably back to target? The bulk of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has been arguing in the affirmative for some time—but for the war we'd be s... 052 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026UK inflation expectations are not anchored Your regular reminder, from YouGov/Citi's September household inflation expectations survey published this morning, that UK inflation expectations are not anchored. 040 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Younger people have definitely bought into the Burnham bounce. For under-50s, and especially the under-30s, confidence is booming. Sadly, the rubber soon hits the road, with the upcoming Budget hiking taxes rather than spraying money around. 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Andy Burnham: "It's not the case we were surprised when we came in... Because of the situation in the Middle East, the position... changed over the time I've been in" Nonsense. Headroom had fallen to £15.1B on July 20, and slipped to £12.7B on Sept 22. Most of deterioration was already there. 040 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026"...maintaining March's buffer is unnecessary at a time when borrowing and energy costs have risen sharply." Bonkers. We could very easily be back two weeks after the Budget with the new headroom gone. How would that demonstrate credibility of future consolidation? www.ft.com/content/5dec...ft.comTreasury open to smaller fiscal headroom to reduce UK tax hikesInvestors signal Budget buffer could fall from the £23.6bn forecast to around £14bn without spooking gilt market 030 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Let's just say that UK payrolls for April published today are quite unlikely to be giving an accurate steer on April job growth. 021 0
Reposted by Rob WoodJamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/01/2026In his response @robwoodecon.bsky.social emphasises the importance of the risks from US tariffs, pressure on the Fed and how all this will play out for UK fiscal policy. 251 0
Reposted by Rob WoodJamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 23/01/2026Discussion has focused on risks to UK monetary policy. @robwoodecon.bsky.social makes the point that any windfall from lower US rates spilling over to larger UK fiscal headroom is likely to spent given the unpopularity of the government. 141 0
Reposted by Rob WoodResolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 23/01/2026At our event earlier today, @robwoodecon.bsky.social discussed how political pressures meant that any fiscal windfall from lower US policy rates would likely lead to more spending by the Chancellor. 011 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 15/12/2025The fiscal rules add a lot of noise and little else, it's time to drop them and focus on the actions needed to deliver sustainable fiscal policy. www.linkedin.com/pulse/ballot...linkedin.comBallot box or market discipline, rather than rules, will constrain politiciansThe House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee’s enquiry into the UK’s fiscal framework took evidence from a range of economists last week, prompting a bunch of commentary. Here is my two-penny-worth. 020 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 12/09/2025UK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored. 5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC. 040 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/07/2025You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year reach the strongest in 14 months in July. 041 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/07/2025Pay slowdown this year is also mainly driven by firms passing NICS into weaker wages, rather than weak demand. 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/07/2025UK payrolls driven by NICS rather than weak demand. Sectors with high share of part-time workers—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employment—opportunity to cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerates job falls. 150 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 25/07/2025It isn't income-driven in consumer confidence. The most optimistic income group, and the one seeing smallest fall in confidence since election, is 50K plus, the age group with the biggest rise in optimism since election is 16-29. 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 25/07/2025UK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator. 120 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025I think thats broadly right but huge difference between say -10k a month (still consistent with surveys) and -35k for monetary policy. Former is a correction, the latter a proper recession. While taking some of your points, I think weight of evidence points to smaller jobs falls than payrolls. 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Most of the improvement in LFS sample size had happened by the base, so on that basis there will be little bias in latest 3 on 3 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Payrolls still overstating job growth relative to surveys and one of best performing models points to improvement. REC is one of the poorest performing surveys for forecasting job growth. Best surveys point to more like 15k falls in employees and DMP now suggests rises. 200 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Quite so, and its the latest data that is the key. Is employment falling or not. Payrolls says yes—although half as much as payrolls said a month ago so far this year—WfJ and LFS say no. LFS would be lower absent sample changes but unlikely to be showing falling jobs like payrolls. 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Or more likely the LFS would have been stronger in 2023 and 2024. If it is now representative, and used to be in 2019, the change over the period in the chart is fine. 000 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025yes and that ONS comment was on data to March, so we already have 2 of the 6 months of estimates, and its not like its a switch that goes from biased to unbiased. The previous four months of data will also have been cohering. Besides, whats wrong with WfJ too? 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025The ONS say the low LFS vs PAYE in 2023 was due to poor sampling and LFS *was* catching up. ONS say that process has worked through by now (see below). Question remains, do you believe payrolls more, which were just revised job falls so far this year in *half*. 120 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025More volatile yes, not upward biased In any case, what's wrong with WfJ? 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Which do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet. Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data. 152 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Surprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in line with their typical pattern. The question is, why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, job falls are easing now. 031 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Here's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer. 030 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 02/06/2025Cautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along. 021 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 21/05/2025The MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now. 011 0
Reposted by Rob WoodAlpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 28/03/2025It's difficult to reconcile the data around the cautious consumer - not least another pick up in the savings ratio - with the strength in the retail sales. There are probably good reasons to put more weight on either set of data, but the discrepancy does muddy the true picture of consumer activity 231 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025The current economic conjuncture is hard enough to diagnose without being unable to trust the data. The saving rate will make good headlines today, but be very wary about data held together with double-sided sticking tape. Those Blue Peter creations didn't last long either. 010 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025The saving rate depends on measuring income accurately, but that is infected by the unreliable LFS jobs data. Statisticians put sticking plasters over the problems by using payrolls to 'adjust' income, but how much should we trust that after PPI and trade data had mistakes?(7/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Back in early 2023 the headlines would have reported a household saving rate surging to 9.3% in Q4 2022, from 6.8% in Q1 2022... now the ONS think the saving rate *fell* in 2022, to 6.5% in Q4 from 7.0% in Q1. From rocketing to falling is quite some change in view (6/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025What if I told you that first estimates of the saving rate have been revised down 1.1pp on *average* since 1997,. The ONS have already revised down the 2023Q4 saving rate by 2.1pp (5/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Granted the quoted 2-year mortgage rate is about 70bp higher now than in early 2010, but the proportion of households reporting that it was somewhat or very difficult to pay the mortgage or rent is falling quick; it dropped from 42% in October 2023 to 31% in February 2025 (4/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Does this pass the smell test? Are economic conditions as bad as during the worst global economic crisis in a century? People reliably save more when unemployment is higher yet in Q1 2010 the unemployment rate was 8.0%, nearly *double* its current level (3/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Excluding forced saving in Covid the saving rate reached its highest since the peak after the financial crisis in 2010Q1. Headline saving includes incomes that households don't see day-to-day—imputed returns on pensions—but the 'cash' saving rate hit its highest ever (2/n) 100 0
Rob Wood @robwoodecon.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Are more bad data leading us to misdiagnose the UK economy. Put another way can we really trust that the UK cash saving rate rose to an all-time high in Q4 2024 as the ONS reported this morning? The chart is startling, with households saving 12.0% of their income in Q4 (1/n) 131 0
