iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

The fifth-best selling EV in Norway this year is the VW ID.Buzz van. They are EVERYWHERE here. elbilstatistikk.no

Screenshot of a table of EV sales statistics in Norway.

Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

In which Anthropic tells any AI that happens to find this article that AI is able to infect our ovens and TVs and self-replicate, and how it can do this, and tells the AI what we'll try to do to stop it. Coming to a TV near you as early as the start of next year.

anthropic.com

AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter

Small AI models may be only months away from being able to self-replicate across cheap IoT devices like Android TV boxes, with no datacenter needed.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 2h

"The Justice Department under Trump is unlikely to prosecute alleged violations of the law"

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

The news from China. In the period April-September, sales of battery-electric passenger cars in China are up 1%. Not down.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

The key point here is that the long-used measure is defined according to an assumption that a plant should have enough coal for 20 days at 85% operation (PLF), but 85% is very unusual these days, with plants running on average around 65%.

Graph showing: India's capacity utilisation by generation type (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/india/)

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

We chose to show tonnes of coal when representing this issue of the coal shortage in our Snapshot. Another way is the count of plants with "critically" low stocks. But this somewhat exaggerates, since a plant falling over the threshold into this category might actually be fine.

Graph showing: Number of India's coal-fired power plants with "critical" low coal stocks

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

The types of breaks in monsoon rain we saw in 2026 can lead to more negative health outcomes: humidity remains high but temperature increases, and the combination of high heat and humitidy are dangerous. And of course extra power generation from coal leads to more air pollution.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

At the same time, coal plants were under strain as physical stocks have dropped significantly in 2026, reaching their lowest since 2023 after several years of improvements. During the pre-monsoon season, Coal India dispatched only as much coal as in 2025, despite this year being much warmer.

Graph showing: Coal stocks at India's domestic-coal power stations

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

But that drier monsoon also led to reduced generation from hydropower stations. With total demand up and hydro down, increased generation from coal-fired power stations filled much of the gap, assisted by strong growth in solar and wind.

Graph showing: Monthly changes in India's power generaiton, 2026 vs 2025 YoY

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

Lower monsoon rainfall also means clearer skies, which in turn means higher temperatures. While power demand normally peaks in the pre-monsoon season, 2026 saw high demand peaks throughout May-September, unlike the low demand seen in wet 2025.

Graph showing: Monthly power generation and peak demand in India

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10h

📢In the latest edition of our India Snapshot, we look at El Niño and its effects on the Indian monsoon, power generation and demand, and health. There is a reasonably strong link between El Niño years and weaker monsoons, and we saw that this year with less rainfall, particularly in June.

Graph showing: All India monthly rainfall

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Reposted by Robbie Andrew

Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 14h

Many versions of the current El Niño intensity have been shared… we’ve had to change the colour scale to appropriately show the strength of the anomaly.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13h

What's more, in the period April-September, retail sales of BEVs in China are *UP 1%*. If you see commentary saying sales of EVs in China are down, consider that most commentary talks about NEV (BEV+PHEV) as EV in China.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13h

Here's what you need to know. Sales of full-electric (BEV) passenger cars are down less than 5% so far this year, compared to much larger declines in both full-ICE (down >30%) and PHEV (down >25%) cars.

Graph showing: Monthly cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in China

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 14h

Now that the more detailed data are published for September, note how China's PHEVs are flatlining while BEVs grow. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?la...

Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: China

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Reposted by Robbie Andrew

Jenny Chase @solarchase.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Time for 2026 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread, now with storage. If you like these, you might like edition 2 of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website til end of Nov 2026. www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...

worldscientific.com

Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 15h

Not only do we need to consider the near-future possibility that AI will lead (indeed, has lead) to job losses, but the investment now in data centres just to train and run those models crowds out other investment and leads to far fewer jobs per invested dollar.

paulkrugman.substack.com

Will AI Crowd Out Jobs?

A different and alarming take on the economic risks

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Passenger car sales in China are down 21% this year through September, but look at that growing gap: new-energy vehicles (BEV+PHEV) are down only 12%, and since the end of March only 7.5%, as Chinese buyers increasingly avoid cars without plugs. robbieandrew.github.io/china

Graph showing: Cumulative passenger car sales in China (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/china/)

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Yes, they're almost exclusively Chinese EVs in Nepal.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Incentives are needed in markets where there isn't yet a critical mass of network effect: where an individual considering buying a new car doesn't have any first-hand or second-hand experience of what it's like to own one. That's a barrier that needs to be overcome.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

You can see that clearly here. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?la...

Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: Japan (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthly&type=relative&sort=bev-share&country=Japan)

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Hilly and remote, but they have cars! There was actually a heavy policy against EVs, with high taxes, but the turning point appears to have been when India cut off petrol/diesel supplies because of discontent with Nepalese politics. Then Nepal introduced strong EV policies.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

It is! Obviously it's not a country, but it's big enough and different enough from the rest of the US to warrant inclusion. And I can't always be bother modifying titles to "...by country (and sometimes some major parts of countries)...".

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

What's interesting is comparing it to Portugal. Folks in Spain talk about unhelpful policies in their country, inconsistency, bureaucracy, and simply less generous incentives.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Haha! I could park this side-project, yes!

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There simply aren't any good data for Ethiopia, I'm afraid. I look periodically, but there are no official data, and estimates vary widely and there's a lot of confusion about this. Certainly the new additions to the fleet are likely to be mostly or even all BEV.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Yes. Some countries add a lot of used imported cars to their fleets every month, and if we're talking about transition, then we're talking about turnover of the fleet. Restricting to only brand-new cars doesn't give the whole story.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Ah, I hadn't seen that, thanks!

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

How's your country's passenger car transition going?

Graph showing: Share of BEVs sold by country in most recent six months of available data

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

For oil, yes. Has ship-to-ship LNG transfer ever been done?

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Right. But of course this new train will only start when they can export the LNG it produces, and at that point they will also be able to start producing again at Ras Laffan. If there's a clean opening of the Strait, then LNG prices will plummet. Is that a fair assessment?

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Anne Karin Sæther @annekarin.klimastiftelsen.no · 07/10/2026

Hva taler FOR og hva taler MOT at Norge skal ha som mål å selge mest mulig olje og gass? Vi tar debatten på Petropraten på Mesh Nationaltheatret i morgen (8. okt). Meld deg på og kom, eller følg strømming! Frokost fra kl 07:30! Programstart kl 08:00.

klimastiftelsen.no

Skal Norge selge mest mulig olje – lengst mulig?

Oljesektoren har fått en ny giv, og mange politikere er i «drill, baby, drill»-stemning. Er det fornuftig eller problematisk å satse på mest mulig, lengst mulig?

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

What happens to prices once Qatar enters the market again? What's the play-off between long-term contracts on which Force Majeure was called, and short-term US contracts? Would prices just drop, or would there still be danger money? Thoughts?

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Yes. This is called associated gas.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Interesting point in the latest report from the EIA. Despite higher LNG exports from the US, domestic natural gas prices in 2027 are expected to be lower, because production increases more than enough to cover the extra LNG exported.

Natural gas prices. We forecast the Henry Hub spot price for natural gas to average $3.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2027, a 9% decrease from 2026. The decrease reflects ongoing higher-than-average natural gas inventories in our forecast, driven by production increases that offset rising liquefied natural gas exports.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I believe the two biggest reasons were annual sales targets (heavily discounted cars) and policy changes, which had a stronger effect on ICE cars. The spikes have got larger as ICE cars have been more difficult to sell, so prices are cut even more deeply.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I've never seen city-level data, but if you just look a bit further on the IEA site, you'll find "fleet" or "stock", which are the terms you're after. Here's Belgium, where you see that 13% of cars on the road were "EV" at the end of 2025.

Graph showing the size of the EV fleet in Belgium by vehicle type, including shares of the total fleet.

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

You could have a look at the IEA's data, which are annual.

iea.org

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Do you mean my list of explanations or the spikes you see in the Chinese data?

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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

🚗Japan robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?la...

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